Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chemison A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10873308 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundDuring the Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic of 2006-2007 in eastern Africa, spatial mapping of the outbreaks across Kenya, Somalia, and Tanzania was performed and the RVF viruses were isolated and genetically characterized.MethodsFollowing confirmation of the RVF epidemic in Kenya on 19 December 2006 and in Tanzania on 2 February 2007, teams were sent to the field for case finding. Human, livestock, and mosquito specimens were collected and viruses isolated. The World Health Organization response team in Kenya worked with the WHO's polio surveillance team inside Somalia to collect information and specimens from Somalia.ResultsSeven geographical foci that reported hundreds of livestock and >25 cases in humans between December 2006 and June 2007 were identified. The onset of RVF cases in each epidemic focus was preceded by heavy rainfall and flooding for at least 10 days. Full-length genome analysis of 16 RVF virus isolates recovered from humans, livestock, and mosquitoes in 5 of the 7 outbreak foci revealed 3 distinct lineages of the viruses within and across outbreak foci.ConclusionThe findings indicate that the sequential RVF epidemics in the region were caused by multiple lineages of the RVF virus, sometimes independently activated or introduced in distinct outbreak foci.
| S-EPMC3071275 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease that causes sporadic, multi-country epidemics. However, RVF virus (RVFV) also circulates during inter-epidemic periods. There is limited understanding of how climate change will affect inter-epidemic RVF. Here, we project inter-epidemic RVF risk under future climate scenarios, focusing on the East African countries of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.MethodsWe combined data on inter-epidemic RVF outbreaks and spatially-explicit predictor variables to build a predictive model of inter-epidemic RVF risk. We validated our model using RVFV serological data from humans. We then projected inter-epidemic RVF risk for three future time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-208) under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370). Finally, we combined risk projections with human population projections to estimate the future population at risk of inter-epidemic RVF across the study region.FindingsOur model showed seasonality in inter-epidemic RVF, with risk peaking May-July following the long rains (March-May). Projections for future climate scenarios suggested that disease risk will increase January-March, with the present-day hotspots of east Kenya, southeast Tanzania, and southwest Uganda remaining high-risk. By 2061-2080, > 117 million people in the study region may be at risk from inter-epidemic RVF, a fourfold increase relative to the historical (1970-2000) estimate of ~25 million people.InterpretationClimate change will shift the inter-epidemic RVF risk landscape, with increasing short rains (October-December) driving increased risk January-March. Mitigating the future health impacts of RVF will require increased disease surveillance, prevention, and control effort in risk hotspots.FundingUS National Institutes of Health.
| S-EPMC11844568 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic phlebovirus of the Phenuiviridae family with great opportunity for emergence in previously unaffected regions, despite its current geographical limits. Outbreaks of RVFV often infect humans or domesticated animals, such as livestock, concurrently and occur sporadically, ranging from localized outbreaks in villages to multi-country events that spread rapidly. The true burden of Rift Valley fever (RVF) is not well defined due to underreporting, misdiagnosis caused by the broad spectrum of disease presentation, and minimal access for rapid and accurate laboratory confirmation. Severe symptoms may include hemorrhagic fever, loss of vision, psychological impairment or disturbances, and organ failure. Those living in endemic areas and travelers should be aware of the potential for exposure to ongoing outbreaks or interepidemic transmission, and engage in behaviors to minimize exposure risks, as vaccinations in humans are currently unavailable and animal vaccinations are not used routinely or ubiquitously. The lack of vaccines approved for use in humans is concerning, as RVFV has proven to be highly pathogenic in naïve populations, causing severe disease in a large percent of confirmed cases, which could have considerable impact on human health.
| S-EPMC7345646 | biostudies-literature
Project description:An isolated Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak was reported in 2018 in Free State Province, South Africa. Phylogenetic analyses based on complete genome sequences of 3 RVF viruses from blood and tissue samples indicated that they were related to a virus isolated in 2016 from a man returning to China from Angola.
| S-EPMC6759270 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) activity in Southern Africa tends to occur during periods of sustained elevated rainfall, cooler than normal conditions, and abundant vegetation cover creating ideal conditions for the increase and propagation of populations of RVFV mosquito vectors. These climatic and ecological conditions are modulated by large-scale tropical-wide El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The aim of this 5-year study was to investigate climatic conditions during Rift Valley fever "post-epizootic" period in Free State province of the Republic of South Africa, which historically experienced the largest RVF outbreaks in this country. We collected satellite-derived rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data since 2014 to understand broad environmental conditions in the years following a period of sustained and widespread large RVF outbreaks (2008-2011) in the region. We found this post-epizootic/interepizootic period to be characterized by below-normal rainfall (~-500 mm), above LSTs (~+12°C), depressed NDVI (60% below normal), and severe drought as manifested particularly during the 2015-2016 growing season. Such conditions reduce the patchwork of appropriate habitats available for emergence of RVFV vectors and diminish chances of RVFV activity. However, the 2016-2017 growing season saw a marked return to somewhat wetter conditions without any reported RVFV transmission. In general, the aggregate vector collections during this 5-year period follow patterns observed in climate measurements. During the 2017-2018 growing season, late and seasonally above average rainfall resulted in a focal RVF outbreak in one location in the study region. This unanticipated event is an indicator of cryptic RVF activity during post-epizootic period and may be a harbinger of RVFV activity in the coming years.
| S-EPMC8848741 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rift Valley Fever Virus genome from Mayotte, Indian Ocean
| PRJNA517473 | ENA
Project description:Rift Valley fever virus Raw sequence reads
| PRJNA518058 | ENA
Project description:Rift Valley Fever is an acute zoonotic viral disease caused by Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) that affects ruminants and humans in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. We used phylogenetic analyses to understand the demographic history of RVFV populations, using sequence data from the three minigenomic segments of the virus. We used phylogeographic approaches to infer RVFV historical movement patterns across its geographic range, and to reconstruct transitions among host species. Results revealed broad circulation of the virus in East Africa, with many lineages originating in Kenya. Arrival of RVFV in Madagascar resulted from three major waves of virus introduction: the first from Zimbabwe, and the second and third from Kenya. The two major outbreaks in Egypt since 1977 possibly resulted from a long-distance introduction from Zimbabwe during the 1970s, and a single introduction took RVFV from Kenya to Saudi Arabia. Movement of the virus between Kenya and Sudan, and CAR and Zimbabwe, was in both directions. Viral populations in West Africa appear to have resulted from a single introduction from Central African Republic. The overall picture of RVFV history is thus one of considerable mobility, and dynamic evolution and biogeography, emphasizing its invasive potential, potentially more broadly than its current distributional limits.
| S-EPMC5221768 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne, zoonotic phlebovirus-causing disease in domestic ruminants and humans in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and some Indian Ocean islands. Outbreaks, characterized by abortion storms and a high morbidity rate in newborn animals, occur after heavy and prolonged rainfalls favouring the breeding of mosquitoes. However, the identity of the important mosquito vectors of RVFV is poorly known in most areas. Mosquitoes collected in the Ndumo area of tropical north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, were tested for RVFV nucleic acid using RT-PCR. The virus was detected in a single pool of unfed Aedes (Aedimorphus) durbanensis, indicating that this seasonally abundant mosquito species could serve as a vector in this area of endemic RVFV circulation. Phylogenetic analysis indicated the identified virus is closely related to two isolates from the earliest outbreaks, which occurred in central South Africa more than 60 years ago, indicating long-term endemicity in the region. Further research is required to understand the eco-epidemiology of RVFV and the vectors responsible for its circulation in the eastern tropical coastal region of southern Africa.
| S-EPMC8879006 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic pathogen causing disease outbreaks in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The virus has great potential for transboundary spread due to the presence of competent vectors in non-endemic areas. There is currently no fully licensed vaccine suitable for use in livestock or humans outside endemic areas. Here we report the evaluation of the efficacy of a recombinant subunit vaccine based on the RVFV Gn and Gc glycoproteins. In a previous study, the vaccine elicited strong virus neutralizing antibody responses in sheep and was DIVA (differentiating naturally infected from vaccinated animals) compatible. In the current efficacy study, a group of sheep (n = 5) was vaccinated subcutaneously with the glycoprotein-based subunit vaccine candidate and then subjected to heterologous challenge with the virulent Kenya-128B-15 RVFV strain. The vaccine elicited high virus neutralizing antibody titers and conferred complete protection in all vaccinated sheep, as evidenced by prevention of viremia, fever and absence of RVFV-associated histopathological lesions. We conclude that the subunit vaccine platform represents a promising strategy for the prevention and control of RVFV infections in susceptible hosts.
| S-EPMC4906348 | biostudies-other