Efficacy of Wolbachia-based mosquito control: Predictions of a spatially discrete mathematical model
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SUBMITTER: Dye D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10911593 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundAedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia pipientis are less susceptible than wild-type A. aegypti to dengue virus infection.MethodsWe conducted a cluster-randomized trial involving releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti mosquitoes for the control of dengue in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We randomly assigned 12 geographic clusters to receive deployments of wMel-infected A. aegypti (intervention clusters) and 12 clusters to receive no deployments (control clusters). All clusters practiced local mosquito-control measures as usual. A test-negative design was used to assess the efficacy of the intervention. Patients with acute undifferentiated fever who presented to local primary care clinics and were 3 to 45 years of age were recruited. Laboratory testing was used to identify participants who had virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) and those who were test-negative controls. The primary end point was symptomatic VCD of any severity caused by any dengue virus serotype.ResultsAfter successful introgression of wMel into the intervention clusters, 8144 participants were enrolled; 3721 lived in intervention clusters, and 4423 lived in control clusters. In the intention-to-treat analysis, VCD occurred in 67 of 2905 participants (2.3%) in the intervention clusters and in 318 of 3401 (9.4%) in the control clusters (aggregate odds ratio for VCD, 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.35; P = 0.004). The protective efficacy of the intervention was 77.1% (95% CI, 65.3 to 84.9) and was similar against the four dengue virus serotypes. The incidence of hospitalization for VCD was lower among participants who lived in intervention clusters (13 of 2905 participants [0.4%]) than among those who lived in control clusters (102 of 3401 [3.0%]) (protective efficacy, 86.2%; 95% CI, 66.2 to 94.3).ConclusionsIntrogression of wMel into A. aegypti populations was effective in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue and resulted in fewer hospitalizations for dengue among the participants. (Funded by the Tahija Foundation and others; AWED ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03055585; Indonesia Registry number, INA-A7OB6TW.).
| S-EPMC8103655 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The growing expansion of mosquito vectors has made mosquito-borne arboviral diseases a global threat to public health, and the lack of licensed vaccines and treatments highlight the urgent need for efficient mosquito vector control. Compared to genetically modified control strategies, the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia, endowing a pathogen-blocking phenotype, is considered an environmentally friendly strategy to replace the target population for controlling arboviral diseases. However, the incomplete knowledge regarding the pathogen-blocking mechanism weakens the reliability of a Wolbachia-based population replacement strategy. Wolbachia infections are also vulnerable to environmental factors, temperature, and host diet, affecting their densities in mosquitoes and thus the virus-blocking phenotype. Here, we review the properties of the Wolbachia strategy as an approach to control mosquito populations in comparison with genetically modified control methods. Both strategies tend to limit arbovirus infections but increase the risk of selecting arbovirus escape mutants, rendering these strategies less reliable.
| S-EPMC7281599 | biostudies-literature
Project description:People living in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world face an enormous health burden due to mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and filariasis. Historically and today, targeting mosquito vectors with, primarily, insecticide-based control strategies have been a key control strategy against major mosquito-borne diseases. However, the success to date of such approaches is under threat from multiple insecticide resistance mechanisms while vector control (VC) options are still limited. The situation therefore requires the development of innovative control measures against major mosquito-borne diseases. Transinfecting mosquitos with symbiotic bacteria that can compete with targeted pathogens or manipulate host biology to reduce their vectorial capacity are a promising and innovative biological control approach. In this review, we discuss the current state of knowledge about the association between mosquitoes and Wolbachia, emphasizing the limitations of different mosquito control strategies and the use of mosquitoes' commensal microbiota as innovative approaches to control mosquito-borne diseases.
| S-EPMC6276417 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundDuring the 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, policy-makers were confronted with difficult decisions on how best to test the efficacy of EVD vaccines. On one hand, many were reluctant to withhold a vaccine that might prevent a fatal disease from study participants randomized to a control arm. On the other, regulatory bodies called for rigorous placebo-controlled trials to permit direct measurement of vaccine efficacy prior to approval of the products. A stepped-wedge cluster study (SWCT) was proposed as an alternative to a more traditional randomized controlled vaccine trial to address these concerns. Here, we propose novel "ordered stepped-wedge cluster trial" (OSWCT) designs to further mitigate tradeoffs between ethical concerns, logistics, and statistical rigor.Methodology/principal findingsWe constructed a spatially structured mathematical model of the EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone. We used the output of this model to simulate and compare a series of stepped-wedge cluster vaccine studies. Our model reproduced the observed order of first case occurrence within districts of Sierra Leone. Depending on the infection risk within the trial population and the trial start dates, the statistical power to detect a vaccine efficacy of 90% varied from 14% to 32% for standard SWCT, and from 67% to 91% for OSWCTs for an alpha error of 5%. The model's projection of first case occurrence was robust to changes in disease natural history parameters.Conclusions/significanceOrdering clusters in a step-wedge trial based on the cluster's underlying risk of infection as predicted by a spatial model can increase the statistical power of a SWCT. In the event of another hemorrhagic fever outbreak, implementation of our proposed OSWCT designs could improve statistical power when a step-wedge study is desirable based on either ethical concerns or logistical constraints.
| S-EPMC4979980 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWolbachia incompatible insect technique (IIT) programs have been shown in field trials to be highly effective in suppressing populations of mosquitoes that carry diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. However, the frequent and repeated release of Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes makes such programs resource-intensive. While the need for optimization is recognized, potential strategies to optimize releases and reduce resource utilization have not been fully explored.ResultsWe developed a process-based model to study the spatio-temporal metapopulation dynamics of mosquitoes in a Wolbachia IIT program, which explicitly incorporates climatic influence in mosquito life-history traits. We then used the model to simulate various scale-down and redistribution strategies to optimize the existing program in Singapore. Specifically, the model was used to study the trade-offs between the intervention efficacy outcomes and resource requirements of various release program strategies, such as the total number of release events and the number of mosquitoes released. We found that scaling down releases in existing sites from twice a week to only once a week yielded small changes in suppression efficacy (from 87 to 80%), while requiring 44% fewer mosquitoes and release events. Additionally, redistributing mosquitoes from already suppressed areas and releasing them in new areas once a week led to a greater total suppressive efficacy (83% compared to 61%) while also yielding a 16% and 14% reduction in the number of mosquitoes and release events required, respectively.ConclusionsBoth scale-down and redistribution strategies can be implemented to significantly reduce program resource requirements without compromising the suppressive efficacy of IIT. These findings will inform planners on ways to optimize existing and future IIT programs, potentially allowing for the wider adoption of this method for mosquito-borne disease control.
| S-EPMC11580355 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA life-shortening strain of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia, called wMelPop, is seen as a promising new tool for the control of Aedes aegypti. However, developing a vector control strategy based on the release of mosquitoes transinfected with wMelPop requires detailed knowledge of the demographics of the target population.Methodology/principal findingsIn Tri Nguyen village (611 households) on Hon Mieu Island in central Vietnam, we conducted nine quantitative entomologic surveys over 14 months to determine if Ae. aegypti populations were spatially and temporally homogenous, and to estimate population size. There was no obvious relationship between mosquito (larval, pupal or adult) abundance and temperature and rainfall, and no area of the village supported consistently high numbers of mosquitoes. In almost all surveys, key premises produced high numbers of Ae. aegypti. However, these premises were not consistent between surveys. For an intervention based on a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti, release ratios of infected to uninfected adult mosquitoes of all age classes are estimated to be 1.8-6.7ratio1 for gravid females (and similarly aged males) or teneral adults, respectively. We calculated that adult female mosquito abundance in Tri Nguyen village could range from 1.1 to 43.3 individuals of all age classes per house. Thus, an intervention could require the release of 2-78 wMelPop-infected gravid females and similarly aged males per house, or 7-290 infected teneral female and male mosquitoes per house.Conclusions/significanceGiven the variability we encountered, this study highlights the importance of multiple entomologic surveys when evaluating the spatial structure of a vector population or estimating population size. If a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti were to occur when wild Ae. aegypti abundance was at its maximum, a preintervention control program would be necessary to ensure that there was no net increase in mosquito numbers. However, because of the short-term temporal heterogeneity, the inconsistent spatial structure and the impact of transient key premises that we observed, the feasibility of multiple releases of smaller numbers of mosquitoes also needs to be considered. In either case, fewer wMelPop-infected mosquitoes would then need to be released, which will likely be more acceptable to householders.
| S-EPMC2780318 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.
| S-EPMC9667726 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Wolbachia bacteria are common endosymbionts of insects, and some strains are known to protect their hosts against RNA viruses and other parasites. This has led to the suggestion that releasing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes could prevent the transmission of arboviruses and other human parasites. We have identified Wolbachia in Kenyan populations of the yellow fever vector Aedes bromeliae and its relative Aedes metallicus, and in Mansonia uniformis and Mansonia africana, which are vectors of lymphatic filariasis. These Wolbachia strains cluster together on the bacterial phylogeny, and belong to bacterial clades that have recombined with other unrelated strains. These new Wolbachia strains may be affecting disease transmission rates of infected mosquito species, and could be transferred into other mosquito vectors as part of control programs.
| S-EPMC3503815 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Summary Given the importance of gut microbial communities for human health, we may want to ensure their stability in terms of species composition and function. Here, we built a mathematical model of a simplified gut composed of two connected patches where species and metabolites can flow from an upstream patch, allowing upstream species to affect downstream species’ growth. First, we found that communities in our model are more stable if they assemble through species invasion over time compared to combining a set of species from the start. Second, downstream communities are more stable when species invade the downstream patch less frequently than the upstream patch. Finally, upstream species that have positive effects on downstream species can further increase downstream community stability. Despite it being quite abstract, our model may inform future research on designing more stable microbial communities or increasing the stability of existing ones. Graphical abstract Highlights • We built a mathematical model of a gut containing two patches with simulated microbes• Microbial communities that assemble gradually are more stable than when seeded at once• Spatial structure promotes stability, as the downstream patch is shielded from invaders• A downstream community is more stable if species living upstream have positive effects on it Experimental models in systems biology; Mathematical biosciences; Microbiome
| S-EPMC10475486 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cybermedical systems that regulate patient clotting in real time with personalized blood product delivery will improve treatment outcomes. These systems will harness popular viscoelastic assays of clot strength such as thromboelastography (TEG), which help evaluate coagulation status in numerous conditions: major surgery (e.g., heart, vascular, hip fracture, and trauma); liver cirrhosis and transplants; COVID-19; ICU stays; sepsis; obstetrics; diabetes; and coagulopathies like hemophilia. But these measurements are time-consuming, and thus impractical for urgent care and automated coagulation control. Because protein concentrations in a blood sample can be measured in about five minutes, we develop personalized, phenomenological, quick, control-oriented models that predict TEG curve outputs from input blood protein concentrations, to facilitate treatment decisions based on TEG curves. Here, we accurately predict, experimentally validate, and mechanistically justify curves and parameters for common TEG assays (Functional Fibrinogen, Citrated Native, Platelet Mapping, and Rapid TEG), and verify results with trauma patient clotting data.
| S-EPMC10770315 | biostudies-literature