Dataset Information

Bus Riding as Amplification Mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Germany, 2021¹.

ABSTRACT: To examine the risk associated with bus riding and identify transmission chains, we investigated a COVID-19 outbreak in Germany in 2021 that involved index case-patients among bus-riding students. We used routine surveillance data, performed laboratory analyses, interviewed case-patients, and conducted a cohort study. We identified 191 case-patients, 65 (34%) of whom were elementary schoolchildren. A phylogenetically unique strain and epidemiologic analyses provided a link between air travelers and cases among bus company staff, schoolchildren, other bus passengers, and their respective household members. The attack rate among bus-riding children at 1 school was ≈4 times higher than among children not taking a bus to that school. The outbreak exemplifies how an airborne agent may be transmitted effectively through (multiple) short (<20 minutes) public transport journeys and may rapidly affect many persons.

SUBMITTER: Scholl M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10977817 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bus Riding as Amplification Mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Germany, 2021<sup>1</sup>.

Schöll Meike M Höhn Christoph C Boucsein Johannes J Moek Felix F Plath Jasper J An der Heiden Maria M Huska Matthew M Kröger Stefan S Paraskevopoulou Sofia S Siffczyk Claudia C Buchholz Udo U Lachmann Raskit R

Emerging infectious diseases 20240401 4

To examine the risk associated with bus riding and identify transmission chains, we investigated a COVID-19 outbreak in Germany in 2021 that involved index case-patients among bus-riding students. We used routine surveillance data, performed laboratory analyses, interviewed case-patients, and conducted a cohort study. We identified 191 case-patients, 65 (34%) of whom were elementary schoolchildren. A phylogenetically unique strain and epidemiologic analyses provided a link between air travelers ...[more]

PMID: 38526123

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Project description:ImportanceEvidence of whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), can be transmitted as an aerosol (ie, airborne) has substantial public health implications.ObjectiveTo investigate potential transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2 infection with epidemiologic evidence from a COVID-19 outbreak.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study examined a community COVID-19 outbreak in Zhejiang province. On January 19, 2020, 128 individuals took 2 buses (60 [46.9%] from bus 1 and 68 [53.1%] from bus 2) on a 100-minute round trip to attend a 150-minute worship event. The source patient was a passenger on bus 2. We compared risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among at-risk individuals taking bus 1 (n = 60) and bus 2 (n = 67 [source patient excluded]) and among all other individuals (n = 172) attending the worship event. We also divided seats on the exposed bus into high-risk and low-risk zones according to the distance from the source patient and compared COVID-19 risks in each zone. In both buses, central air conditioners were in indoor recirculation mode.Main outcomes and measuresSARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction or by viral genome sequencing results. Attack rates for SARS-CoV-2 infection were calculated for different groups, and the spatial distribution of individuals who developed infection on bus 2 was obtained.ResultsOf the 128 participants, 15 (11.7%) were men, 113 (88.3%) were women, and the mean age was 58.6 years. On bus 2, 24 of the 68 individuals (35.3% [including the index patient]) received a diagnosis of COVID-19 after the event. Meanwhile, none of the 60 individuals in bus 1 were infected. Among the other 172 individuals at the worship event, 7 (4.1%) subsequently received a COVID-19 diagnosis. Individuals in bus 2 had a 34.3% (95% CI, 24.1%-46.3%) higher risk of getting COVID-19 compared with those in bus 1 and were 11.4 (95% CI, 5.1-25.4) times more likely to have COVID-19 compared with all other individuals attending the worship event. Within bus 2, individuals in high-risk zones had moderately, but nonsignificantly, higher risk for COVID-19 compared with those in the low-risk zones. The absence of a significantly increased risk in the part of the bus closer to the index case suggested that airborne spread of the virus may at least partially explain the markedly high attack rate observed.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study and case investigation of a community outbreak of COVID-19 in Zhejiang province, individuals who rode a bus to a worship event with a patient with COVID-19 had a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection than individuals who rode another bus to the same event. Airborne spread of SARS-CoV-2 seems likely to have contributed to the high attack rate in the exposed bus. Future efforts at prevention and control must consider the potential for airborne spread of the virus.

Project description:Current estimates of pandemic SARS-CoV-2 spread in Germany using infectious disease models often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on age-specific contact matrices of the population. They also do usually not include setting- or pandemic phase-based information from epidemiological studies of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. We developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model was optimized to fit age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences reported by the German National Public Health Institute (Robert Koch Institute), includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age- and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence studies. Taking age-specific underreporting into account, younger adults and teenagers were identified in the modeling study as relevant contributors to infections during the first three pandemic waves in Germany. For the fifth wave, the Delta to Omicron transition, only age-specific parametrization reproduces the observed relative and absolute increase in pediatric hospitalizations in Germany. Taking into account age-specific underdetection did not change considerably how much contacts in schools contributed to the total burden of infection in the population (up to 12% with open schools under hygiene measures in the third wave). Accounting for the pandemic phase and age-specific underreporting is important to correctly identify those groups of the population in which quarantine, testing, vaccination, and contact-reduction measures are likely to be most effective and efficient. Age-specific parametrization is also highly relevant to generate informative age-specific output for decision makers and resource planers.

Dataset Information

Bus Riding as Amplification Mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Germany, 2021¹.

Publications

Bus Riding as Amplification Mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Germany, 2021<sup>1</sup>.

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Dataset Information

Bus Riding as Amplification Mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Germany, 20211.

Publications

Bus Riding as Amplification Mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Germany, 2021<sup>1</sup>.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets

Bus Riding as Amplification Mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Germany, 2021¹.