Dataset Information

Prediction of Mild Cognitive Impairment Status: Pilot Study of Machine Learning Models Based on Longitudinal Data From Fitness Trackers.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Early signs of Alzheimer disease (AD) are difficult to detect, causing diagnoses to be significantly delayed to time points when brain damage has already occurred and current experimental treatments have little effect on slowing disease progression. Tracking cognitive decline at early stages is critical for patients to make lifestyle changes and consider new and experimental therapies. Frequently studied biomarkers are invasive and costly and are limited for predicting conversion from normal to mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Objective

This study aimed to use data collected from fitness trackers to predict MCI status.

Methods

In this pilot study, fitness trackers were worn by 20 participants: 12 patients with MCI and 8 age-matched controls. We collected physical activity, heart rate, and sleep data from each participant for up to 1 month and further developed a machine learning model to predict MCI status.

Results

Our machine learning model was able to perfectly separate between MCI and controls (area under the curve=1.0). The top predictive features from the model included peak, cardio, and fat burn heart rate zones; resting heart rate; average deep sleep time; and total light activity time.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that a longitudinal digital biomarker differentiates between controls and patients with MCI in a very cost-effective and noninvasive way and hence may be very useful for identifying patients with very early AD who can benefit from clinical trials and new, disease-modifying therapies.

SUBMITTER: Xu Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11294783 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Prediction of Mild Cognitive Impairment Status: Pilot Study of Machine Learning Models Based on Longitudinal Data From Fitness Trackers.

Xu Qidi Q Kim Yejin Y Chung Karen K Schulz Paul P Gottlieb Assaf A

JMIR formative research 20240718

<h4>Background</h4>Early signs of Alzheimer disease (AD) are difficult to detect, causing diagnoses to be significantly delayed to time points when brain damage has already occurred and current experimental treatments have little effect on slowing disease progression. Tracking cognitive decline at early stages is critical for patients to make lifestyle changes and consider new and experimental therapies. Frequently studied biomarkers are invasive and costly and are limited for predicting convers ...[more]

PMID: 39024003

Similar Datasets

Project description:PurposeAmnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is a transitional state between normal aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, not all aMCI patients are observed to convert to AD dementia. Therefore, developing a predictive algorithm for the conversion of aMCI to AD dementia is important. Parametric methods, such as logistic regression, have been developed; however, it is difficult to reflect complex patterns, such as non-linear relationships and interactions between variables. Therefore, this study aimed to improve the predictive power of aMCI patients' conversion to dementia by using an interpretable machine learning (IML) algorithm and to identify the factors that increase the risk of individual conversion to dementia in each patient.MethodsWe prospectively recruited 705 patients with aMCI who had been followed-up for at least 3 years after undergoing baseline neuropsychological tests at the Samsung Medical Center between 2007 and 2019. We used neuropsychological tests and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype data to develop a predictive algorithm. The model-building and validation datasets were composed of data of 565 and 140 patients, respectively. For global interpretation, four algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting) were compared. For local interpretation, individual conditional expectations (ICE) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to analyze individual patients.ResultsAmong the four algorithms, the extreme gradient boost model showed the best performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.852 and an accuracy of 0.807. Variables, such as age, education, the scores of visuospatial and memory domains, the sum of boxes of the Clinical Dementia Rating scale, Mini-Mental State Examination, and APOE genotype were important features for creating the algorithm. Through ICE and SHAP analyses, it was also possible to interpret which variables acted as strong factors for each patient.ConclusionWe were able to propose a predictive algorithm for each aMCI individual's conversion to dementia using the IML technique. This algorithm is expected to be useful in clinical practice and the research field, as it can suggest conversion with high accuracy and identify the degree of influence of risk factors for each patient.

Project description:BackgroundClinical markers of cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease (PD) encompass several mental non-motor symptoms such as hallucinations, apathy, anxiety, and depression. Furthermore, freezing of gait (FOG) and specific gait alterations have been associated with cognitive dysfunction in PD. Finally, although low cerebrospinal fluid levels of amyloid-β42 have been found to predict cognitive decline in PD, hitherto PET imaging of amyloid-β (Aβ) failed to consistently demonstrate the association between Aβ plaques deposition and mild cognitive impairment in PD (PD-MCI).AimFinding significant features associated with PD-MCI through a machine learning approach.Patients and methodsPatients were assessed with an extensive clinical and neuropsychological examination. Clinical evaluation included the assessment of mental non-motor symptoms and FOG using the specific items of the MDS-UPDRS I and II. Based on the neuropsychological examination, patients were classified as subjects without and with MCI (noPD-MCI, PD-MCI). All patients were evaluated using a motion analysis system. A subgroup of PD patients also underwent amyloid PET imaging. PD-MCI and noPD-MCI subjects were compared with a univariate statistical analysis on demographic data, clinical features, gait analysis variables, and amyloid PET data. Then, machine learning analysis was performed two times: Model 1 was implemented with age, clinical variables (hallucinations/psychosis, depression, anxiety, apathy, sleep problems, FOG), and gait features, while Model 2, including only the subgroup performing PET, was implemented with PET variables combined with the top five features of the former model.ResultsSeventy-five PD patients were enrolled (33 PD-MCI and 42 noPD-MCI). PD-MCI vs. noPD-MCI resulted in older and showed worse gait patterns, mainly characterized by increased dynamic instability and reduced step length; when comparing amyloid PET data, the two groups did not differ. Regarding the machine learning analyses, evaluation metrics were satisfactory for Model 1 overcoming 80% for accuracy and specificity, whereas they were disappointing for Model 2.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that machine learning implemented with specific clinical features and gait variables exhibits high accuracy in predicting PD-MCI, whereas amyloid PET imaging is not able to increase prediction. Additionally, our results prompt that a data mining approach on certain gait parameters might represent a reliable surrogate biomarker of PD-MCI.

Project description:BackgroundCox proportional hazards regression models and machine learning models are widely used for predicting the risk of dementia. Existing comparisons of these models have mostly been based on empirical datasets and have yielded mixed results. This study examines the accuracy of various machine learning and of the Cox regression models for predicting time-to-event outcomes using Monte Carlo simulation in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).MethodsThe predictive accuracy of nine time-to-event regression and machine learning models were investigated. These models include Cox regression, penalized Cox regression (with Ridge, LASSO, and elastic net penalties), survival trees, random survival forests, survival support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and extreme gradient boosting. Simulation data were generated using study design and data characteristics of a clinical registry and a large community-based registry of patients with MCI. The predictive performance of these models was evaluated based on three-fold cross-validation via Harrell's concordance index (c-index), integrated calibration index (ICI), and integrated brier score (IBS).ResultsCox regression and machine learning model had comparable predictive accuracy across three different performance metrics and data-analytic conditions. The estimated c-index values for Cox regression, random survival forests, and extreme gradient boosting were 0.70, 0.69 and 0.70, respectively, when the data were generated from a Cox regression model in a large sample-size conditions. In contrast, the estimated c-index values for these models were 0.64, 0.64, and 0.65 when the data were generated from a random survival forest in a large sample size conditions. Both Cox regression and random survival forest had the lowest ICI values (0.12 for a large sample size and 0.18 for a small sample size) among all the investigated models regardless of sample size and data generating model.ConclusionCox regression models have comparable, and sometimes better predictive performance, than more complex machine learning models. We recommend that the choice among these models should be guided by important considerations for research hypotheses, model interpretability, and type of data.

Project description:IntroductionBrain age is a machine learning-derived estimate that captures lower brain volume. Previous studies have found that brain age is significantly higher in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease (AD) compared to healthy controls. Few studies have investigated changes in brain age longitudinally in MCI and AD. We hypothesized that individuals with MCI and AD would show heightened brain age over time and across the lifespan. We also hypothesized that both MCI and AD would show faster rates of brain aging (higher slopes) over time compared to healthy controls.MethodsWe utilized data from an archival dataset, mainly Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) 1 with 3Tesla (3 T) data which totaled 677 scans from 183 participants. This constitutes a secondary data analysis on existing data. We included control participants (healthy controls or HC), individuals with MCI, and individuals with AD. We predicted brain age using a pre-trained model and tested for accuracy. We investigated cross-sectional differences in brain age by group [healthy controls or HC, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD]. We conducted longitudinal modeling of age and brain age by group using time from baseline in one model and chronological age in another model.ResultsWe predicted brain age with a mean absolute error (MAE) < 5 years. Brain age was associated with age across the study and individuals with MCI and AD had greater brain age on average. We found that the MCI group had significantly higher rates of change in brain age over time compared to the HC group regardless of individual chronologic age, while the AD group did not differ in rate of brain age change.DiscussionWe replicated past studies that showed that MCI and AD had greater brain age than HC. We additionally found that this was true over time, both groups showed higher brain age longitudinally. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that the MCI, but not the AD group, showed faster rates of brain aging. We essentially found that while the MCI group was actively experiencing faster rates of brain aging, the AD group may have already experienced this acceleration (as they show higher brain age). Individuals with MCI may experience higher rates of brain aging than AD and controls. AD may represent a homeostatic endpoint after significant neurodegeneration. Future work may focus on individuals with MCI as one potential therapeutic option is to alter rates of brain aging, which ultimately may slow cognitive decline in the long-term.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Mild Cognitive Impairment Status: Pilot Study of Machine Learning Models Based on Longitudinal Data From Fitness Trackers.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction of Mild Cognitive Impairment Status: Pilot Study of Machine Learning Models Based on Longitudinal Data From Fitness Trackers.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets