Evolution of Esophageal Cancer Incidence Patterns in Hong Kong, 1992-2021: An Age-Period-Cohort and Decomposition Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To elucidate the historical trends, underlying causes and future projections of esophageal cancer incidence in Hong Kong.

Methods

Utilizing the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, we analyzed data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1992-2021) and United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 Revision. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed, and APC models evaluated age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian APC modeling, coupled with decomposition analysis, projected future trends and identified factors influencing incidence.

Results

Between 1992 and 2021, both crude and age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal cancer witnessed significant declines. Net drifts exhibited pronounced downward trends for both sexes, with local drift diminishing across

SUBMITTER: Wang L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11335483 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature