Evolution of Esophageal Cancer Incidence Patterns in Hong Kong, 1992-2021: An Age-Period-Cohort and Decomposition Analysis
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wang L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11335483 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveThis study provides a comprehensive analysis of endometrial cancer incidence trends in Hong Kong over the past three decades. It aims to evaluate the impact of demographic shifts and epidemiological factors, including age, birth cohort, and diagnosis period, on the incidence rates. The study also projects future trends in endometrial cancer cases up to 2030 and assesses the contributions of these factors using a detailed decomposition approach.Material and methodsThe analysis is based on endometrial cancer data obtained from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was utilized to investigate the effects of different age groups, historical periods, and birth cohorts on the changing incidence patterns. The study projects future trends using a Bayesian APC framework, integrating historical data and expert insights for robust predictions. Additionally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to disentangle the contributions of demographic changes (aging and population growth) and epidemiological shifts (risk factors such as obesity and reproductive behaviors) to the increasing cases.ResultsBetween 1992 and 2021, there were 19,214 recorded cases of endometrial cancer in Hong Kong. Age-standardized and crude incidence rates showed consistent increases, rising from 7.4 per 100,000 person-years in 1992 to 31.0 per 100,000 in 2020. Incidence trends rose significantly across all age groups, with the highest increase seen in women aged 50-65. Projections indicate that the upward trend will continue, with an estimated 1718 cases by 2030. Demographic factors, particularly population aging, and evolving epidemiological trends contribute jointly to the incidence rise.ConclusionsThe findings reveal a steady increase in endometrial cancer incidence among Hong Kong women, primarily driven by demographic aging and shifts in risk factors. The study underscores the need for targeted public health measures and resource allocation for early detection and effective management strategies, emphasizing the importance of addressing modifiable risk factors such as obesity and reproductive health behaviors.
| S-EPMC11693884 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks have been relatively well controlled in Hong Kong, containment remains challenging among socioeconomically disadvantaged persons. They are at higher risk for widespread COVID-19 transmission through sizable clustering, probably because of exposure to social settings in which existing mitigation policies had differential socioeconomic effects.
| S-EPMC8544972 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hong Kong has the highest breast cancer incidence in Asia and studying secular changes in its rates may lead to hypotheses regarding disease aetiology and also predictions of future trends for China. We examined statistics from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry based on 26 566 cases of invasive breast cancer from 1973 to 1999. The trends in breast cancer incidence were studied using log-linear longitudinal models. We further analysed the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort on incidence trends using age-period-cohort modelling. The average annual per cent change of the age-standardised incidence was 3.6% during 1973-1999. Age-period-cohort modelling indicated the incidence development was predominantly a cohort effect, where the rise in relative risk was seemingly linear in successive birth cohorts, showing a 2-3-fold difference when comparing women born in the 1960's with those born around 1900. Our results suggest that direct and indirect consequences of westernisation may have been responsible for most of the observed increase in breast cancer incidence. As China moves towards a more westernised way of life, we can expect an emerging epidemic of breast cancer as Hong Kong's experience has demonstrated.
| S-EPMC2364319 | biostudies-other
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9530507 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis study aims to evaluate the relationship between age, period, and birth cohort with the incidence trends of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) in Hong Kong, make projections through 2030 and parse the drivers of the incidence.MethodsUsing data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry, we used an age-period-cohort model to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC incidence trends and make projections. We further assessed the drivers of NPC incidence using a validated decomposition algorithm.ResultsFrom 1991 to 2020, crude and age-standardized incidence rates of NPC decreased significantly. The net drifts showed significant downward trends for both sexes, and local drift declined in all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios revealed monotonic declining patterns for both sexes. Projections suggested that NPC incidence will continue to decline. Population decomposition showed that while population growth and ageing have led to an increase in NPC cases, epidemiologic changes offset these increases, resulting in an encouraging downward trend in the incidence and new NPC cases in Hong Kong.ConclusionsThe period and cohort risk of NPC in Hong Kong decreased, and epidemiologic changes offset the contribution of demographic factors, resulting in a continued decline in NPC incidence and cases.
| S-EPMC10429092 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ageing has become a serious challenge in Hong Kong and globally. It has serious implications for health expenditure, which accounts for nearly 20% of overall government expenditure. Here we assess the contribution of ageing and related factors to hospitalisation days in Hong Kong. We used hospital discharge data from all publicly funded hospitals in Hong Kong between 2001 and 2012.A decomposition method was used to examine the factors that account for the change of total hospitalisation days during the two periods, 2001-2004 and 2004-2012. The five factors include two demographic factors - population size and age-gender composition - and three service components - hospital discharge rate, number of discharge episodes per patient, and average length of stay (LOS) - which are all measured at age-gender group level. In order to assess the health cost burden in the future, we also project the total hospitalisation days up to 2041, for a range of scenarios.During the decreasing period of hospitalisation days (2001-2004), the reduction of LOS contributed to about 60% of the reduction. For the period of increase (2004-2012), ageing is associated with an increase in total hospitalisation days of 1.03 million, followed by an increase in hospital discharge rates (0.67 million), an increase in the number of discharge episodes per patient (0.62 million), and population growth (0.43 million). The reduction of LOS has greatly offset these increases (-2.19 million days), and has become one of the most significant factors in containing the increasing number of hospitalisation days. Projected increases in total hospitalisation days under different scenarios have highlighted that the contribution of ageing will become even more prominent after 2022.Hong Kong is facing increasing healthcare burden caused by the rapid increase in demand for inpatient services due to ageing. Better management of inpatient services with the aim of increasing efficiency and reducing LOS, avoidable hospitalisation and readmission, without compromising patient satisfaction and quality of service, are crucial for containing the rapid and enormous increases in total hospitalisation days for Hong Kong. The results would be relevant to many rapidly ageing societies in this region.
| S-EPMC5337253 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundCystic echinococcosis (CE) is widespread globally but imposes a particularly heavy burden in Central Asia. Despite control measures, disease management remains suboptimal in this region. This study analyzed trends in CE incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1992 to 2021 in Central Asia; compared them with global data; and explored variations by gender, age group, and country to identify critical factors in disease control.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we analyzed long-term trends in the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of CE in Central Asia. The joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) to identify shifts in disease trends. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model was used to assess the impact of various age groups, periods, and birth cohorts on the disease burden.ResultsThe number of CE cases increased by 52.13% in Central Asia, while deaths decreased by 57.35%; DALYs decreased only slightly by 10.75%. From 1992 to 2021, CE incidence showed an increasing trend until 2010, then rapidly declined until 2015, and then gradually increased thereafter. The highest incidence rates were among middle-aged and older adult populations. Although mortality and DALY rates decreased across all age groups, the decline was less than the global trend. Gender analysis showed that the incidence rate was significantly higher in males than in females.ConclusionAlthough there have been improvements in the CE disease burden in some Central Asian countries, the overall burden remains significant. This study highlights the importance of considering gender, age, and country-specific disease burdens when formulating public health policies. Future research should continue to monitor these trends and explore targeted prevention strategies within diverse socioeconomic contexts, such as integrating regional socioeconomic factors and public health resources.
| S-EPMC11826808 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8386779 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To investigate a superspreading event at a fitness center in Hong Kong, China, we used genomic sequencing to analyze 102 reverse transcription PCR-confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Our finding highlights the risk for virus transmission in confined spaces with poor ventilation and limited public health interventions.
| S-EPMC8314845 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLife expectancy and life disparity are 2 useful indicators to assess the health condition of a society. Both Hong Kong and Japan have one of the longest life expectancies in the world. Recently, Hong Kong has overtaken Japan and topped the life expectancy rankings. However, whether Hong Kong has also outperformed Japan in life disparity is still unknown.MethodsDecomposition analyses have been conducted to evaluate age-specific contributions to the changes in life expectancy and life disparity for each of the populations. Furthermore, the differences between the 2 populations were examined over the period 1977-2016.ResultsReduction in mortality of the adult and the old age groups contributes most to the increase in life expectancy for the study period. Hong Kong has a higher life disparity than Japan, and due to the great improvement in reducing premature deaths, the Hong Kong-Japan gap has been narrowing. However, in recent years, further reduction in mortality of the oldest elderly in Hong Kong has actually contributed to the increase in its disparity, thus widening its gap with Japan again.ConclusionIncreasing dominant influence of "saving lives at late ages" is very likely to cause the reemergence of increasing life disparity in these 2 long-lived populations.
| S-EPMC7947701 | biostudies-literature