Project description:From the 2010s on, pattern classification has proven an effective method for flagging alerts of volcano unrest before eruptive activity at Mt. Etna, Italy. The analysis has been applied online to volcanic tremor data, and has supported the surveillance activity of the volcano that provides timely information to Civil Protection and other authorities. However, after declaring an alert, no one knows how long the volcano unrest will last and if a climactic eruptive activity will actually begin. These are critical aspects when considering the effects of a prolonged state of alert. An example of longstanding unrest is related to the Christmas Eve eruption in 2018, which was heralded by several months of almost continuous Strombolian activity. Here, we discuss the usage of thresholds to detect conditions leading to paroxysmal activity, and the challenges associated with defining such thresholds, leveraging a dataset of 52 episodes of lava fountains occurring in 2021. We were able to identify conservative settings regarding the thresholds, allowing for an early warning of impending paroxysm in almost all cases (circa 85% for the first 4 months in 2021, and over 90% for the whole year). The chosen thresholds also proved useful to predict that a paroxysmal activity was about to end. Such information provides reliable numbers for volcanologists for their assessments, based on visual information, which may not be available in bad weather or cloudy conditions.
Project description:Carbon dioxide is the most abundant, non-condensable gas in volcanic systems, released into the atmosphere through either diffuse or advective fluid flow. The emission of substantial amounts of CO2 at Earth's surface is not only controlled by volcanic plumes during periods of eruptive activity or fumaroles, but also by soil degassing along permeable structures in the subsurface. Monitoring of these processes is of utmost importance for volcanic hazard analyses, and is also relevant for managing geothermal resources. Fluid-bearing faults are key elements of economic value for geothermal power generation. Here, we describe for the first time how sensitively and quickly natural gas emissions react to changes within a deep hydrothermal system due to geothermal fluid reinjection. For this purpose, we deployed an automated, multi-chamber CO2 flux monitoring system within the damage zone of a deep-rooted major normal fault in the Los Humeros Volcanic Complex (LHVC) in Mexico and recorded data over a period of five months. After removing the atmospheric effects on variations in CO2 flux, we calculated correlation coefficients between residual CO2 emissions and reinjection rates, identifying an inverse correlation of ρ = - 0.51 to - 0.66. Our results indicate that gas emissions respond to changes in reinjection rates within 24 h, proving an active hydraulic communication between the hydrothermal system and Earth's surface. This finding is a promising indication not only for geothermal reservoir monitoring but also for advanced long-term volcanic risk analysis. Response times allow for estimation of fluid migration velocities, which is a key constraint for conceptual and numerical modelling of fluid flow in fracture-dominated systems.
Project description:Volcanic lakes are characterized by physicochemical favorable conditions for the development of reservoirs of C-bearing greenhouse gases that can be dispersed to air during occasional rollover events. By combining a microbiological and geochemical approach, we showed that the chemistry of the CO2- and CH4-rich gas reservoir hosted within the meromictic Lake Averno (Campi Flegrei, southern Italy) are related to the microbial niche differentiation along the vertical water column. The simultaneous occurrence of diverse functional groups of microbes operating under different conditions suggests that these habitats harbor complex microbial consortia that impact on the production and consumption of greenhouse gases. In the epilimnion, the activity of aerobic methanotrophic bacteria and photosynthetic biota, together with CO2 dissolution at relatively high pH, enhanced CO2- and CH4 consumption, which also occurred in the hypolimnion. Moreover, results from computations carried out to evaluate the dependence of the lake stability on the CO2/CH4 ratios, suggested that the water density vertical gradient was mainly controlled by salinity and temperature, whereas the effect of dissolved gases was minor, excepting if extremely high increases of CH4 are admitted. Therefore, biological processes, controlling the composition of CO2 and CH4, contributed to stabilize the lake stratification of the lake. Overall, Lake Averno, and supposedly the numerous worldwide distributed volcanic lakes having similar features (namely bio-activity lakes), acts as a sink for the CO2 supplied from the hydrothermal/magmatic system, displaying a significant influence on the local carbon budget.
Project description:Non-volcanic tremor is a particularly enigmatic form of seismic activity. In its most studied subduction zone setting, tremor typically occurs within the plate interface at or near the shallow and deep edges of the interseismically locked zone. Detailed seismic observations have shown that tremor is composed of repeating small low-frequency earthquakes, often accompanied by very-low-frequency earthquakes, all involving shear failure and slip. However, low-frequency earthquakes and very-low-frequency earthquakes within each cluster show nearly constant source durations for all observed magnitudes, which implies characteristic tremor sub-event sources of near-constant size. Here we integrate geological observations and geomechanical lab measurements on heterogeneous rock assemblages representative of the shallow tremor region offshore the Middle America Trench with numerical simulations to demonstrate that these tremor events are consistent with the seismic failure of relatively weaker blocks within a stronger matrix. In these subducting rocks, hydrothermalism has led to a strength-inversion from a weak matrix with relatively stronger blocks to a stronger matrix with embedded relatively weaker blocks. Tremor naturally occurs as the now-weaker blocks fail seismically while their surrounding matrix has not yet reached a state of general seismic failure.
Project description:Ocean acidification is recognized as one of the most pervasive anthropogenic impact on marine life. A variety of responses have been highlighted in different marine organisms ranging from physiology to gene and protein expression. However, most of these studies have been performed in laboratory exposing adults or developmental stages to CO2 enriched seawater. To what extend the information obtained from these in vitro experiments may be extrapolated to a natural environment is questionable. Here, we utilized the Castello volcanic CO2 vents at Ischia as natural laboratory to study the P. lividus population living at the low pH zone (pH~7.8) compared to those of sea urchins living at control sites. Wide-ranging analyses were performed in animals collected at the acidified site, including the monitoring of their position, the determination of the physico-chemical parameters of the coelomic fluid and an in depth characterization of coelomocytes regarding the number and type of cells, Hsp70 expression, redox status and protein expression through de-novo sequencing analyses. In addition, the respiration, nitrogen metabolism, and skeletal mineralogy of urchins from the vent were examined in comparison with those from control animals. Overall these analyses allowed to understand how the sea urchins can thrive in low pH/high CO2.
Project description:There have been substantial advances in the ability to monitor the activity of hazardous volcanoes in recent decades. However, obtaining early warning of eruptions remains challenging, because the patterns and consequences of volcanic unrests are both complex and nonlinear. Measuring volcanic gases has long been a key aspect of volcano monitoring since these mobile fluids should reach the surface long before the magma. There has been considerable progress in methods for remote and in-situ gas sensing, but measuring the flux of volcanic CO2-the most reliable gas precursor to an eruption-has remained a challenge. Here we report on the first direct quantitative measurements of the volcanic CO2 flux using a newly designed differential absorption lidar (DIAL), which were performed at the restless Campi Flegrei volcano. We show that DIAL makes it possible to remotely obtain volcanic CO2 flux time series with a high temporal resolution (tens of minutes) and accuracy (<30%). The ability of this lidar to remotely sense volcanic CO2 represents a major step forward in volcano monitoring, and will contribute improved volcanic CO2 flux inventories. Our results also demonstrate the unusually strong degassing behavior of Campi Flegrei fumaroles in the current ongoing state of unrest.
Project description:CO(2) emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are conventionally attributed to the country where the emissions are produced (i.e., where the fuels are burned). However, these production-based accounts represent a single point in the value chain of fossil fuels, which may have been extracted elsewhere and may be used to provide goods or services to consumers elsewhere. We present a consistent set of carbon inventories that spans the full supply chain of global CO(2) emissions, finding that 10.2 billion tons CO(2) or 37% of global emissions are from fossil fuels traded internationally and an additional 6.4 billion tons CO(2) or 23% of global emissions are embodied in traded goods. Our results reveal vulnerabilities and benefits related to current patterns of energy use that are relevant to climate and energy policy. In particular, if a consistent and unavoidable price were imposed on CO(2) emissions somewhere along the supply chain, then all of the parties along the supply chain would seek to impose that price to generate revenue from taxes collected or permits sold. The geographical concentration of carbon-based fuels and relatively small number of parties involved in extracting and refining those fuels suggest that regulation at the wellhead, mine mouth, or refinery might minimize transaction costs as well as opportunities for leakage.
Project description:CO(2) emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the CO(2) directly emitted by each country, but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with the consumption of goods and services in each country. Consumption-based accounting of CO(2) emissions differs from traditional, production-based inventories because of imports and exports of goods and services that, either directly or indirectly, involve CO(2) emissions. Here, using the latest available data, we present a global consumption-based CO(2) emissions inventory and calculations of associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that, in 2004, 23% of global CO(2) emissions, or 6.2 gigatonnes CO(2), were traded internationally, primarily as exports from China and other emerging markets to consumers in developed countries. In some wealthy countries, including Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, the United Kingdom, and France, >30% of consumption-based emissions were imported, with net imports to many Europeans of >4 tons CO(2) per person in 2004. Net import of emissions to the United States in the same year was somewhat less: 10.8% of total consumption-based emissions and 2.4 tons CO(2) per person. In contrast, 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported, on net, to consumers elsewhere. Consumption-based accounting of CO(2) emissions demonstrates the potential for international carbon leakage. Sharing responsibility for emissions among producers and consumers could facilitate international agreement on global climate policy that is now hindered by concerns over the regional and historical inequity of emissions.
Project description:In volcanoes with active hydrothermal systems, diffuse CO2 degassing may constitute the primary mode of volcanic degassing. The monitoring of CO2 emissions can provide important clues in understanding the evolution of volcanic activity especially at calderas where the interpretation of unrest signals is often complex. Here, we report eighteen years of CO2 fluxes from the soil at Solfatara of Pozzuoli, located in the restless Campi Flegrei caldera. The entire dataset, one of the largest of diffuse CO2 degassing ever produced, is made available for the scientific community. We show that, from 2003 to 2016, the area releasing deep-sourced CO2 tripled its extent. This expansion was accompanied by an increase of the background CO2 flux, over most of the surveyed area (1.4 km2), with increased contributions from non-biogenic source. Concurrently, the amount of diffusively released CO2 increased up to values typical of persistently degassing active volcanoes (up to 3000 t d-1). These variations are consistent with the increase in the flux of magmatic fluids injected into the hydrothermal system, which cause pressure increase and, in turn, condensation within the vapor plume feeding the Solfatara emission.
Project description:The active cone of La Fossa is a close conduit volcano characterized by solphataric activity, manifested by discharging fluids through fumaroles and soil degassing. Since 1978 several degassing crises have been observed and interpreted as early signals of volcanic unrests. Recently, from June 2021 to May 2022, we measured the changes in soils CO2 release to evaluating the level and duration of the actual exhaling crises. The CO2 output has been evaluated by surveys carried out in anomalously degassing areas, located both in the La Fossa cone summit area and in other peripheral zones, coupled to near-real time monitoring data acquired by three automated stations. The strong and deep input of volatiles released from an underlying magma batch modified the chemical composition of the shallow plumbing system, bringing the system to a higher level of CO2 total pressure. This work highlights that a geochemical networks of stations, located at some distance from the fumaroles release and/or from eruptive conduits, is useful and can be applied to characterizing and monitoring any other active volcanic system. This type of studies can be useful to contribute to forecast the next evolution of the studied systems.