Nomogram for predicting live birth in ovulatory women undergoing frozen-thawed embryo transfer.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Study objectives included the development of a practical nomogram for predicting live birth following frozen-thawed embryo transfers in ovulatory women.Methods
Totally, 2884 patients with regular menstrual cycles in our center were retrospectively enrolled. In an 8:2 ratio, we randomly assigned patients to training and validation cohorts. Then we identified risk factors by multivariate logistic regression and constructed nomogram. Finally, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were performed to assess the calibration and discriminative ability of the nomogram.Results
We identified five variables which were related to live birth, including age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), protocol of frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET), stage of embryos and amount of high-quality embryos. We then constructed nomograms that predict the probabilities of live birth by using those five parameters. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (ROC) showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for live birth was 0.666 (95% CI: 0.644-0.688) in the training cohort. The AUC in the subsequent validation cohorts was 0.669 (95% CI, 0.625-0.713). The clinical practicability of this nomogram was demonstrated through calibration curve analysis and decision curve analysis.Conclusions
Our nomogram provides a visual and simple tool in predicting live birth in ovulatory women who received FET. It could also provide advice and guidance for physicians and patients on decision-making during the FET procedure.
SUBMITTER: Wang Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11348591 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Nomogram for predicting live birth in ovulatory women undergoing frozen-thawed embryo transfer.
Wang Ying Y Dong Shan S Li Hengfei H Yang Yang Y Guo An-Liang AL Chao Lan L
BMC pregnancy and childbirth 20240827 1
<h4>Background</h4>Study objectives included the development of a practical nomogram for predicting live birth following frozen-thawed embryo transfers in ovulatory women.<h4>Methods</h4>Totally, 2884 patients with regular menstrual cycles in our center were retrospectively enrolled. In an 8:2 ratio, we randomly assigned patients to training and validation cohorts. Then we identified risk factors by multivariate logistic regression and constructed nomogram. Finally, receiver operating characteri ...[more]
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Project description:PurposeThis study aimed to develop a predictive tool for live birth in women with adenomyosis undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment.MethodsA total of 424 patients with adenomyosis who underwent frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) from January 2013 to December 2019 at a public university hospital were included. The patients were randomly divided into training (n = 265) and validation (n = 159) samples for the building and testing of the nomogram, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression (MLR) was developed on the basis of clinical covariates assessed for their association with live birth.ResultsIn total, 183 (43.16%) patients became pregnant, and 114 (26.88%) had a live birth. The MLR showed that the probability of live birth was significantly correlated with age [odds ratio (OR), 3.465; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.215-9.885, P = 0.020], uterine volume (OR, 8.141; 95% CI, 2.170-10.542; P = 0.002), blastocyst transfer (OR, 3.231; 95% CI, 1.065-8.819, P = 0.023), twin pregnancy (OR, 0.328; 95% CI, 0.104-0.344, P = 0.005), and protocol in FET (P < 0.001). The statistical nomogram was built based on age, uterine volume, twin pregnancy, stage of the transferred embryo, and protocol of FET, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.837 (95% CI: 0.741-0.910) for the training cohort. The AUC for the validation cohort was 0.737 (95% CI: 0.661-0.813), presenting a well-pleasing goodness-of-fit and stability in this model.ConclusionsThis visual and easily applied nomogram built on the risk factors of live birth in patients with adenomyosis provides useful and precise information for physicians on individualized decision-making during the IVF/ICSI procedure.
| S-EPMC9171040 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWhether pretreatment with gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRHa) can improve the pregnancy outcomes in frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) cycles is controversial. The inconsistencies in the results of different studies would be related to the characteristics of the included patients and the protocol of GnRHa use. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of pretreatment with a long-acting GnRH agonist in the early follicular phase of FET cycles and determined which population was suitable for the protocol.ResultsWe retrospectively included 630 and 1141 patients in the GnRHa FET and hormone replacement treatment (HRT) FET without GnRHa groups respectively, between October 2017 and March 2019 at a university-affiliated in vitro fertilization center. On the second or third day of menstruation, 3.75 mg of leuprorelin was administered. After 14 days, HRT was initiated for endometrial preparation. No significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of patient characteristics. However, the GnRHa FET group showed a higher percentage of endometrium with a triple line pattern (94.8% vs 89.6%, p < 0.001) on the day of progesterone administration, with increased implantation (35.6% vs 29.8%, p = 0.005), clinical pregnancy (49.8% vs 43.3%, p = 0.008), and live birth rate (39.4% vs 33.7%, p = 0.016), than the HRT FET cycles with similar endometrial thickness, ectopic pregnancy and early miscarriage rates. Binary logistic regression analysis showed the GnRHa FET group to be associated with an increased chance of clinical pregnancy (P=0.028, odds ratio [OR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.70) and live birth (P=0.013, odds ratio [OR] 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.70) compared to the HRT FET without GnRHa group. After subgroup analysis, we found that the GnRHa FET group showed a significantly higher live birth rate in the subgroups of age < 40 years, primary infertility, with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), and irregular menstruation.ConclusionsPretreatment with a long-acting GnRHa during the early follicular phase improved the live birth rate in FET cycles. Age < 40 years, primary infertility, PCOS, and irregular menstruation are effective indications for endometrial preparation with GnRHa pretreatment in FET cycles. However, further randomized controlled trials are required to verify these results.
| S-EPMC10518919 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite that gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist pretreatment has been widely used before programmed frozen-thawed transfer (FET), its impact on live birth rates in ovulatory women remains uncertain. In the present study, we aim to determine if GnRH agonists pretreatment before FET improves live birth rates in women undergoing in vitro fertilization with FET. Programmed FET cycles conducted in four infertility centers were retrospectively collected and reviewed for eligibility from January 2016 and December 2017. Patient’s demographics, ovarian stimulation parameters, and pregnancy outcomes were compared between those given GnRH agonist pretreatment versus no pretreatment in ovulatory women undergoing FET cycles. A total of 6397 programmed cycles were screened for eligibility, of which 5049 cycles were included in the study for analysis. Compared with the group of no GnRH agonist pretreatment (n = 4143), women in the GnRH agonist group (n = 906) were older (33.0 vs 34.0, P < .001), had a higher proportion of subjects with previous transfer attempts and had a higher number of embryos transferred. After controlling for confounders, the logistic regression results showed that GnRH agonist pretreatment did not increase the odds of both clinical pregnancy (OR 0.92, 95% CI [0.70–1.20]), ongoing pregnancy (OR 0.91, 95% CI [0.69–1.19]) and live birth rates (OR 0.84, 95% CI [0.64–1.10]). However, when restricted to women who had no previous transfer attempts, women in the GnRH pretreatment group had lower odds of achieving live birth (OR 0.49, 95% CI [0.30–0.79]). Sensitivity analysis performed in patients with male factor infertility causes showed GnRH agonist pretreated group had lower live birth rates compared to no GnRH agonist pretreatment group (OR = 0.65, 95% CI [0.43–0.97]). Our findings suggested that GnRH agonist pretreatment does not bring additional benefits in live birth rate improvements for ovulatory women undergoing FET cycles. Therefore, the pros of using GnRH agonist to reduce premature ovulation should be weighed against the cons of prolonged time to pregnancy, discomforts resulting from pituitary suppression, and increased medical costs associated with GnRH agonist use.
| S-EPMC9542572 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study questionDoes inoculation with inactivated vaccines against coronavirus 19 (Covid-19) before frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) affect live birth and neonatal outcomes?Summary answerInactivated Covid-19 vaccines did not undermine live birth and neonatal outcomes of women planning for FET.What is known alreadyAccumulating reports are now available indicating the safe use of mRNA vaccines against Covid-19 in pregnant and lactating women, and a few reports indicate that they are not associated with adverse effects on ovarian stimulation or early pregnancy outcomes following IVF. Evidence about the safety of inactivated Covid-19 vaccines is very limited.Study design, size, durationThis is a retrospective cohort analysis from Reproductive Medical Center of a tertiary teaching hospital. Clinical records and vaccination record of 2574 couples with embryos transferred between March 1st 2021 and Sept 30th 2021, were screened for eligibility of this study.Participants/materials, setting, methodsClinical and vaccination data of infertile couples planning for FET were screened for eligibility of the study. The reproductive and neonatal outcomes of FET women inoculated with inactivated Covid-19 vaccines or not were compared. The primary outcomes were live birth rate per embryo transfer cycle and newborns' birth height and weight. Secondary outcomes included rates of ongoing pregnancy, clinical pregnancy, biochemical pregnancy, spontaneous miscarriage. Multivariate logistical regression and propensity score matching (PSM) analyses were performed to minimize the influence of confounding factors. Subgroup analyses including single dose versus double dose of the vaccines, and the time intervals between the first vaccination and embryo transfer were also performed.Main results and role of chanceVaccinated women have comparable live birth rates (43.6% versus 45.0% before PSM, P = 0.590; and 42.9% versus 43.9% after PSM, P = 0.688), ongoing pregnancy rates (48.2% versus 48.1% before PSM, P = 0.980; and 52.2% versus 52.7% after PSM, P = 0.875), clinical pregnancy rate (55.0% versus 54.8% before PSM, P = 0.928; and 54.7% versus 54.2% after PSM, P = 0.868) when compared with unvaccinated counterparts. The newborns' birth length (50.0 ± 1.6 versus 49.0 ± 2.9 cm before PSM, P = 0.116; and 49.9 ± 1.7 versus 49.3 ± 2.6 cm after PSM, P = 0.141) and birth weight (3111.2 ± 349.9 versus 3030.3 ± 588.5 g before PSM, P = 0.544; and 3053.8 ± 372.5 versus 3039.2 ± 496.8 g after PSM, P = 0.347) were all similar between the two groups. Neither single dose nor double dose of vaccines, as well as different intervals between vaccination and embryo transfer showed any significant impacts on reproductive and neonatal outcomes.Limitations, reasons for cautionThe main findings might be limited by retrospective design. Besides, inoculations of triple dose of Covid-19 vaccines were not available by the time of data collection, thus the results cannot reflect the safe use of triple dose of inactivated Covid-19 vaccines. Finally, history of Covid-19 infection was based on patients' self-report rather than objective laboratory tests.Wide implications of the findingsEligible individuals of inactivated vaccines against Covid-19 should not postpone vaccination plan because of their embryo transfer schedule, or vice versa.Study funding/competing interest(s)This study was support by The Medical Key Discipline of Guangzhou (2021-2023). All authors had nothing to disclose.Trail registration numberNot applicable.
| S-EPMC9619751 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: The availability and use of frozen-thawed embryos after controlled ovarian hyperstimulation for assisted reproduction have increased with improvements in vitrification techniques and the rise of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist protocols. Although evidence has shown that frozen-thawed embryo transfers (FETs) result in higher live birth rates than fresh embryo transfers, it is uncertain whether this association exists in cycles employing the GnRH antagonist protocol. Objective: To test the hypothesis that FETs are more likely to result in a live birth than fresh embryo transfers in a GnRH antagonist protocol cycle and to investigate whether frozen blastocyst transfer increases live birth rates compared to fresh blastocyst transfer. Design: A retrospective historical cohort study was conducted using data collected from the Department of Reproductive Medicine of Liuzhou Maternity and Child Healthcare Hospital for 1,437 patients who underwent the GnRH antagonist protocol between 1 January 2015, and 31 December 2020. The primary outcome was the live birth rate, which was compared between fresh embryo transfer and FET, and the secondary outcomes were clinical pregnancy rate and miscarriage rate, which were compared between the two groups. Analyses were adjusted to account for the age of the patient, number of embryo transfers, day of embryo transfer, and type of infertility. Results: Fresh embryo transfers accounted for 1,026 (71.4%) of the 1,437 patients who underwent the GnRH antagonist protocol in our analysis, while FETs accounted for 411 (28.6%). Patients with fresh and frozen-thawed embryos had comparable median body mass index (body mass index; 22.3 [IQR, 24.6-20.0] vs. 22.0 [IQR, 24.5-19.9]). There was a significant difference in the median age of the fresh embryo transfer group (34.0 [IQR, 39.0-30.0]) and the Frozen-thawed embryo transfer group (32.0 [IQR, 37.0-29.0]). Blastocysts were transferred in 14.6% of the fresh embryo transfer cycles and 45.5% of the FET cycles, whereas they account for 10.4% and 13.0% of all patients, respectively. The mean number of embryos transferred was 2 (IQR, 2.0-1.0) for the fresh embryo transfer group and 1 (IQR, 2.0-1.0) for the FET group, with a significant difference in the mean number of embryos transferred. The live birth rate after fresh embryo transfer vs. FET was 28.7% vs. 34.5% (absolute difference, 5.9%; adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.15 [95% CI, 0.88-1.51]). The clinical pregnancy rates were 39.9% vs. 46.0%, respectively (absolute difference, 6.1%; aRR, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.85-1.43]). The miscarriage rates were 22.5% vs. 23.8%, respectively (absolute difference, 1.3%; aRR, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.75-1.70]). Conclusion: In this retrospective study of women who underwent assisted reproduction using GnRH antagonists, FETs resulted in a higher live birth rates and clinical pregnancy rates than fresh embryo transfers, which parts of these differences were attributable to embryo stage. However, the interpretation of the findings is limited by the possibility of selection and confounding biases.
| S-EPMC9096096 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe scoring system for human blastocysts is traditionally based on morphology; however, there are controversies on the effect of morphology parameters on pregnancy outcomes. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predicting value of each morphology parameter on pregnancy outcomes in a setting of single embryo transfer.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study on patients undergoing frozen-thawed single blastocyst transfer at our center, between Jan. 2009 and Dec. 2018. A total of 10,482 cycles were analyzed. The blastocysts were scored according to the expansion and hatching status, morphology of inner cell mass (ICM), and cells of trophectoderm (TE). The primary outcome measure was live birth rate. One-way analysis of variance, chi-square test, and multiple logistic regression were used for statistical analysis.ResultsThe clinical pregnancy rate was lower in the blastocysts of stage 3 (48.15%), compared with those of stage 4 (56.15%), stage 5 (54.91%), and stage 6 (53.37%). The live birth rate was lower in the blastocysts of stage 3 (37.07%), compared with those of stage 4 (44.21%) and stage 5 (41.67%). The rates of clinical pregnancy (A: 66.60%, B: 53.25%, C: 39.33%) and live birth (A: 54.62%, B: 41.29%, C: 28.45%) were both decreased with decreasing grade of ICM morphology, and these differences were pairwise significant. The miscarriage rate of blastocysts with ICM grade A was lower, compared with ICM grade C (17.53 vs. 27.66%). Blastocysts with TE morphology of C had lower rates of clinical pregnancy (43.53%) and live birth (32.57%), compared with those with TE morphology of A and B (clinical pregnancy rate: 64.26% for A, 58.11% for B; live birth rate: 52.74% for A, 45.64% for B). There were no significant differences in rates of clinical pregnancy, live birth, and miscarriage between the blastocysts with TE grade A and B.ConclusionsThe blastocyst expansion stage, ICM grade, and TE grade are all associated with pregnancy outcomes. ICM grade is the strongest predictor of live birth. A blastocyst with stage 4-5, ICM grade A, and TE grade A/B should be given priority for single embryo transfer.
| S-EPMC7943864 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study questionDoes supplementation with vaginal tablets of progesterone after frozen-thawed embryo transfer in natural cycles improve the live birth rate?Summary answerSupplementation with vaginal tablets of progesterone after frozen-thawed embryo transfer in natural cycles significantly improves the number of live births.What is known alreadyProgesterone supplementation during luteal phase and early pregnancy may improve the number of live births after frozen-thawed embryo transfer. However, due to the limited number of previous studies, being mainly retrospective, evidence is still limited.Study design, size, durationThis is a prospective randomized controlled trial, performed at two university clinics. In total, 500 subjects were randomized with a 1:1 allocation into two groups, during the period February 2013 to March 2018. Randomization was performed after a frozen embryo transfer in a natural cycle by use of opaque sealed envelopes. The primary outcome was live birth rate; secondary outcomes were pregnancy, biochemical pregnancy, clinical pregnancy and miscarriage rate, and if there was a possible association between the serum progesterone concentration on the day of embryo transfer and live birth rate.Participants/materials, setting, methodsWomen, receiving embryo transfer in natural cycles participated in the study. The embryos were frozen on Day 2, 3, 5 or 6. In total, 672 women having regular menstrual cycles were invited to participate in the study; of those, 500 agreed to participate and 488 were finally included in the study. Half of the study subjects received progesterone supplementation with progesterone vaginal tablets, 100 mg twice daily, starting from the day of embryo transfer. The other half of the subjects were not given any treatment. Blood samples for serum progesterone measurements were collected from all subjects on the day of embryo transfer.Main results and the role of chanceThere were no differences in background characteristics between the study groups. In the progesterone supplemented group, 83 of 243 patients (34.2%) had a live birth, compared to 59 of 245 patients (24.1%) in the control group (odds ratio 1.635, 95% CI 1.102-2.428, P = 0.017*). The number of pregnancies was 104 of 243 (42.8%) and 83 of 245 (33.9%), respectively (odds ratio 1.465, 95% CI 1.012-2.108, P = 0.049*) and the number of clinical pregnancies was 91 of 243 (37.4%) and 70 of 245 (28.6%), respectively (odds ratio 1.497, 95% CI 1.024-2.188, P = 0.043*). There were no significant differences in biochemical pregnancy rate or miscarriage rate. There was no correlation between outcome and serum progesterone concentration.Limitations, reasons for cautionThe study was not blinded because placebo tablets were not available. Supplementation started on embryo transfer day, regardless of the age of the embryos, which resulted in a shorter supplementation time for Day 5/6 embryos compared to Day 2/3 embryos.Wider implications of the findingsSupplementation with progesterone in natural cycles improved the number of live births after frozen-thawed embryo transfer and should therefore be considered for introduction in clinical routine.Study funding/competing interest(s)The study was funded by Uppsala University, the Uppsala-Family Planning Foundation, and Ferring Pharmaceuticals AB, Malmö, Sweden. The authors have no personal conflicting interests to declare.Trial registration numberNL4152.Trial registration date5 December 2013.Date of first patient’s enrolment18 February 2013.
| S-EPMC9527461 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rates after human embryo transfer. The predicted and observed rates of singleton and twin deliveries were compared in a tenfold cross-validation study using data from a single clinic. The model presented accounts for patient age, embryo stage (cleavage or blastocyst), type of transfer cycle (fresh or frozen) and uterine/universal factors. The standardized errors for rates of singleton and twin deliveries were normally distributed and the mean errors were not significantly different from zero (all p > 0.05). The live birth rates per embryo varied from as high as 43% for fresh blastocysts in the 35-year-old age group to as low as 1% for frozen cleavage stage embryos in the 43-year-old age group. This quantitative model or a simplified version can be used for clinics to generate and analyze their own data to guide the number of embryos to transfer to limit the risk of multiple gestations.
| S-EPMC8144418 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10955253 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In recent years, the freeze-all strategy has been widely adopted and applied. However, with the exception of age, the factors that affect the outcomes of frozen embryo transfer are still unclear. Therefore, the identification and mitigation of factors that influence the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer is a good way to increase the "take-home-baby" rate of frozen embryo transfer. The objective of this study was to identify factors affecting the live birth rate after cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer in young ovulatory women. This was a secondary analysis from a previously published multicenter randomized controlled trial (ChiCTR-IOR-14005406) that was originally designed to compare the live birth rate and perinatal complications after fresh embryo transfer to those after frozen embryo transfer among ovulatory women. This study was carried out using a portion of the data from the original randomized controlled trial, which included 917 young women who underwent cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer. The 16 clinical candidate variables potentially affecting the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer were analyzed. Univariable analysis and multivariable analysis were performed to assess the relationship between predictive factors and outcomes, with the aim of identifying independent predictors of live birth after frozen embryo transfer. In this study, the live birth rate was 53.0% (486/917). Three independent predictors were ultimately identified as the main factors affecting the live birth rate of ovulatory young women. Infertility duration [odds ratio (OR): 0.933, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.876-0.995, p = 0.033], endometrial thickness before frozen embryo transfer (OR: 3.375, 95% CI: 1.556-7.321 p = 0.002), and the number of embryos transferred (OR: 2.653, 95% CI:1.226-5,743, p = 0.013) were the major factors contributing to the live birth rate after cleavage-stage frozen embryo transfer among young women. The cut-off point for infertility duration was 4.5 years, and the cut-off point for endometrial thickness was 0.89 cm. Infertility duration, endometrial thickness and number of embryos transferred might affect the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer among young women. This result could help inform clinical decisions and counseling to increase the live birth rate after frozen embryo transfer among young women.
| S-EPMC7105776 | biostudies-literature