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A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in Anthrax outbreaks and El Nino in Karnataka, India.

ABSTRACT: Anthrax is an economically important zoonotic disease affecting both livestock and humans. The disease is caused by a spore forming bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, and is considered endemic to the state of Karnataka, India. It is critical to quantify the role of climatic factors in determining the temporal pattern of anthrax outbreaks, so that reliable forecasting models can be developed. These models will aid in establishing public health surveillance and guide strategic vaccination programs, which will reduce the economic loss to farmers, and prevent the spill-over of anthrax from livestock to humans. In this study, correlation and coherence between time series of anthrax outbreaks in livestock (1987-2016) and meteorological variables and Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SST) were identified using a combination of cross-correlation analyses, spectral analyses (wavelets and empirical mode decomposition) and further quantified using a Bayesian time series regression model accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Monthly numbers of anthrax outbreaks were positively associated with a lagged effect of rainfall and wet day frequency. Long-term periodicity in anthrax outbreaks (approximately 6-8 years) was coherent with the periodicity in SST anomalies and outbreak numbers increased with decrease in SST anomalies. These findings will be useful in planning long-term anthrax prevention and control strategies in Karnataka state of India.

SUBMITTER: Chanda MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11358154 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in Anthrax outbreaks and El Niño in Karnataka, India.

Chanda Mohammed Mudassar MM Campbell Lindsay L Walke Henry H Salzer Johanna S JS Hemadri Divakar D Patil Sharanagouda S SS Purse Bethan V BV Shivachandra Sathish Bhadravati SB

Scientific reports 20240827 1

Anthrax is an economically important zoonotic disease affecting both livestock and humans. The disease is caused by a spore forming bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, and is considered endemic to the state of Karnataka, India. It is critical to quantify the role of climatic factors in determining the temporal pattern of anthrax outbreaks, so that reliable forecasting models can be developed. These models will aid in establishing public health surveillance and guide strategic vaccination programs, wh ...[more]

PMID: 39198489

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Project description:BackgroundAnthrax, a zoonotic disease is caused by the Gram positive bacterium Bacillus anthracis. During January 2013, an anthrax outbreak among cattle was reported in Gundlupet Taluk, neighboring Bandipur National Park and tiger reserve, India. The present study aims at the molecular identification and characterization of 12 B. anthracis isolates from this outbreak by 16S rRNA gene sequencing, screening B. anthracis specific prophages and chromosomal markers, protective antigen (pag) gene and canonical single nucleotide polymorphism (canSNP) analysis to subtype the isolates into one of the twelve globally identified clonal sub-lineages of B. anthracis.ResultsThese isolates had identical 16S rDNA nucleotide sequences with B. anthracis specific dual peaks showing mixed base pair R (G/A) at position 1139 with visual inspection while the automated basecaller software indicated a G. Alternatively the nucleotide A at 1146 position was indicative of the 16S rDNA type 7. Multiple sequence alignment with additional 170 (16S rDNA) sequences of B. cereus sensu lato group from GenBank database revealed 28 new 16S types in addition to eleven 16S types reported earlier. The twelve B. anthracis isolates were found to harbor the four B. anthracis specific prophages (lambdaBa01, lambdaBa02, lambdaBa03, and lambdaBa04) along with its four specific loci markers (dhp 61.183, dhp 77.002, dhp 73.019, and dhp 73.017). The pag gene sequencing identified the isolates as protective antigen (PA) genotype I with phenylalanine-proline-alanine phenotype (FPA phenotype). However, sequence clustering with additional 34 pag sequences from GenBank revealed two additional missense mutations at nucleotide positions 196 bp and 869 bp of the 2294 bp pag sequence among the 5 B. cereus strains with pXO1 like plasmids. The canSNP analysis showed that the isolates belong to A.Br.Aust94 sub-lineage that is distributed geographically in countries of Asia, Africa, Europe and Australia.ConclusionsThe analysis of 16S rDNA sequences reiterated the earlier findings that visual inspection of electropherogram for position 1139 having nucleotide R could be used for B. anthracis identification and not the consensus sequence from base caller. The canSNP results indicated that the anthrax outbreak among cattle was caused by B. anthracis of A.Br.Aust94 sub-lineage.

Project description:Anthrax, a zoonotic disease affecting both livestock and humans globally, is caused by Bacillus anthracis. The objectives of this study were the following: (1) to identify environmental risk factors for anthrax and use this information to develop an improved predictive risk map, and (2) to estimate spatial variation in basic reproduction number (Ro) and herd immunity threshold at the village level, which can be used to optimize vaccination policies within high-risk regions. Based on the anthrax incidences from 2000-2023 and vaccine administration figures between 2008 and 2022 in Karnataka, this study depicted spatiotemporal pattern analysis to derive a risk map employing machine learning algorithms and estimate Ro and herd immunity threshold for better vaccination coverage. Risk factors considered were key meteorological, remote sensing, soil, and geographical parameters. Spatial autocorrelation and SaTScan analysis revealed the presence of hotspots and clusters predominantly in the southern, central, and uppermost northern districts of Karnataka and temporal cluster distribution between June and September. Factors significantly associated with anthrax were air temperature, surface pressure, land surface temperature (LST), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil temperature, soil moisture, pH, available potassium, sulphur, and boron, elevation, and proximity to waterbodies and waterways. Ensemble technique with random forest and classification tree models were used to improve the prediction accuracy of anthrax. High-risk areas are expected in villages in the southern, central, and extreme northern districts of Karnataka. The estimated Ro revealed 11 high-risk districts with Ro > 1.50 and respective herd immunity thresholds ranging from 11.24% to 55.47%, and the assessment of vaccination coverage at the 70%, 80%, and 90% vaccine efficacy levels, all serving for need-based strategic vaccine allocation. A comparison analysis of vaccinations administered and vaccination coverage estimated in this study is used to illustrate difference in the supply and vaccine force. The findings from the present study may support in planning preventive interventions, resource allocation, especially of vaccines, and other control strategies against anthrax across Karnataka, specifically focusing on predicted high-risk regions.

Dataset Information

A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in Anthrax outbreaks and El Nino in Karnataka, India.

Publications

A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in Anthrax outbreaks and El Niño in Karnataka, India.

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