Identifying delayed human response to external risks: an econometric analysis of mobility change during a pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Human behavioral responses to changes in risks are often delayed. Methods for estimating these delayed responses either rely on rigid assumptions about the delay distribution (e.g., Erlang distribution), producing a poor fit, or yield period-specific estimates (e.g., estimates from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model) that are difficult to integrate into simulation models. We propose a hybrid ARDL-Erlang approach that yields an interpretable summary of behavioral responses suitable for incorporation into simulation models.

Method

We apply the ARDL-Erlang approach to estimate the effect of COVID-19 deaths on mobility across US counties from October 2020 to July 2021. A standard panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model first estimates the effect

SUBMITTER: Zhang G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12574068 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature