Unraveling colorectal cancer incidence dynamics in Hong Kong 1983-2032 through age-period-cohort Bayesian projection and decomposition analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a major public health burden in Hong Kong. Although screening programs and lifestyle changes have contributed to recent declines in age-standardized rates, the absolute burden continues to rise due to rapid population aging. A comprehensive understanding of long-term trends and their demographic drivers is essential for future cancer control planning. This study aimed to comprehensively assess long-term CRC incidence trends in Hong Kong and to project the future disease burden.

Methods

We analyzed CRC incidence data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1983-2022). Crude and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated by sex and age group. Temporal patterns were assessed using age-period-cohort models, future incidence was projec

SUBMITTER: Wei L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12906035 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature