Project description:There are currently two million cancer survivors in the United Kingdom, and in recent years this number has grown by 3% per annum. The aim of this paper is to provide long-term projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom.National cancer registry data for England were used to estimate cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom in 2009. Using a model of prevalence as a function of incidence, survival and population demographics, projections were made to 2040. Different scenarios of future incidence and survival, and their effects on cancer prevalence, were also considered. Colorectal, lung, prostate, female breast and all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) were analysed separately.Assuming that existing trends in incidence and survival continue, the number of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom is projected to increase by approximately one million per decade from 2010 to 2040. Particularly large increases are anticipated in the oldest age groups, and in the number of long-term survivors. By 2040, almost a quarter of people aged at least 65 will be cancer survivors.Increasing cancer survival and the growing/ageing population of the United Kingdom mean that the population of survivors is likely to grow substantially in the coming decades, as are the related demands upon the health service. Plans must, therefore, be laid to ensure that the varied needs of cancer survivors can be met in the future.
Project description:Given the availability of an effective and safe vaccine, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that global measles eradication is achievable, and measles elimination goals have since been established as interim steps toward eradication. As part of a strategy to maintain elimination, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and WHO stipulate a minimum annual reporting rate of discarded non-measles cases of ≥2 per 100,000 population, in order to ensure sensitive surveillance and adequate investigative effort. With its effective vaccination program, the United States in 2000 was among the first countries to verify elimination, although subsequently, it has not routinely reported discarded rates. We estimated MLI investigation rates among insured individuals during 2010-2017, using data from the MarketScan® databases. We defined "MLI investigations" as measles serologic testing within 5 days following diagnostic codes for measles-compatible symptoms and conditions. We provide a rationale for pre-specifying three subgroups for analysis: children aged ≤15 years; males aged 16-22 years excluding data from summer months; and males aged ≥23 years. MLI investigation rates ranged from 6.6─26.4 per 100,000, remaining stable over time except during the 2015 measles outbreaks when rates increased, particularly among young children. In addition to high vaccine uptake, measles elimination requires ongoing vigilance by clinicians and high-quality, case-based surveillance. Estimated rates of MLI investigations in this U.S. population suggesting that the quality of measles surveillance is sufficiently sensitive to detect endemic measles circulation if it were to be occurring.
Project description:Microevolution associated with emergence and expansion of new epidemic clones of bacterial pathogens holds the key to epidemiologic success. To determine microevolution associated with monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium during an epidemic, we performed comparative whole-genome sequencing and phylogenomic analysis of isolates from the United Kingdom and Italy during 2005-2012. These isolates formed a single clade distinct from recent monophasic epidemic clones previously described from North America and Spain. The UK monophasic epidemic clones showed a novel genomic island encoding resistance to heavy metals and a composite transposon encoding antimicrobial drug resistance genes not present in other Salmonella Typhimurium isolates, which may have contributed to epidemiologic success. A remarkable amount of genotypic variation accumulated during clonal expansion that occurred during the epidemic, including multiple independent acquisitions of a novel prophage carrying the sopE gene and multiple deletion events affecting the phase II flagellin locus. This high level of microevolution may affect antigenicity, pathogenicity, and transmission.
Project description:The Illumina Infinium 27k Human DNA methylation Beadchip v1.2 was used to obtain DNA methylation profiles across approximately 27,000 CpGs in whole blood samples from 540 samples, of which 266 were samples taken from postmenopausal women with ovarian cancer and 274 were from age-matched healthy controls Keywords: DNA methylation
Project description:The Illumina Infinium 27k Human DNA methylation Beadchip v1.2 was used to obtain DNA methylation profiles across approximately 27,000 CpGs in whole blood samples from 540 samples, of which 266 were samples taken from postmenopausal women with ovarian cancer and 274 were from age-matched healthy controls Keywords: DNA methylation Bisulphite converted DNA from the 540 samples were hybridised to the Illumina Infinium 27k Human Methylation Beadchip v1.2
Project description:Pneumococcal colonization is rarely studied in adults, except as part of family surveys. We report the outcomes of colonization screening in healthy adults (all were nonsmokers without major comorbidities or contact with children aged <5 years) who had volunteered to take part in clinical research. Using nasal wash culture, we detected colonization in 6.5% of volunteers (52 of 795). Serotype 3 was the commonest serotype (10 of 52 isolates). The majority of the remaining serotypes (35 of 52 isolates) were nonvaccine serotypes, but we also identified persistent circulation of serotypes 19A and 19F. Resistance to at least 1 of 6 antibiotics tested was found in 8 of 52 isolates.
Project description:Recent health policies in the United Kingdom (UK) and internationally have focussed on digitisation of healthcare. We examined UK policies for evidence of government action addressing health inequalities and digital health, using cardiometabolic disease as an exemplar. Using a systematic search methodology, we identified 87 relevant policy documents published between 2010 and 2022. We found increasing emphasis on digital health, including for prevention, diagnosis and management of cardiometabolic disease. Several policies also focused on tackling health inequalities and improving digital access. The COVID-19 pandemic amplified inequalities. No policies addressed ethnic inequalities in digital health for cardiometabolic disease, despite high prevalence in minority ethnic communities. Our findings suggest that creating opportunities for digital inclusion and reduce longer-term health inequalities, will require future policies to focus on: the heterogeneity of ethnic groups; cross-sectoral disadvantages which contribute to disease burden and digital accessibility; and disease-specific interventions which lend themselves to culturally tailored solutions.
Project description:Viral hepatitis is responsible for great health, social and economic burden both globally and in the UK. This study aimed to assess the research funding awarded to UK institutions for viral hepatitis research and the relationship of funded research to clinical and public health burden of viral hepatitis. Databases and websites were systematically searched for information on infectious disease research studies funded for the period 1997-2010. Studies specifically related to viral hepatitis research were identified and categorized in terms of funding by pathogen, disease and by a research and development value chain describing the type of science. The overall data set included 6165 studies (total investment £2.6 billion) of which £76.9 million (3.0%) was directed towards viral hepatitis across 323 studies (5.2%). By pathogen, there were four studies specifically investigating hepatitis A (£3.8 million), 69 studies for hepatitis B (21.4%) with total investment of £14.7 million (19.1%) and 236 (73.1%) hepatitis C studies (£62.7 million, 81.5%). There were 4 studies investigating hepatitis G, and none specifying hepatitis D or E. By associated area, viral hepatitis and therapeutics research received £17.0 million, vaccinology £3.1 million and diagnostics £2.9 million. Preclinical research received £50.3 million (65.4%) across 173 studies, whilst implementation and operational research received £19.4 million (25.3%) across 128 studies. The UK is engaged in much hepatology research, but there are areas where the burden is great and may require greater focus, such as hepatitis E, development of a vaccine for hepatitis C, and further research into hepatitis-associated cancers. Private sector data, and funding information from other countries, would also be useful in priority setting.
Project description:ImportanceSepsis is associated with a high burden of inpatient mortality. Treatment in intensive care units (ICUs) that have more experience treating patients with sepsis may be associated with lower mortality.ObjectiveTo assess the association between the volume of patients with sepsis receiving care in an ICU and hospital mortality from sepsis in the UK.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used data from adult patients with sepsis from 231 UK ICUs between 2010 and 2016. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme database. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2016.ExposuresAnnual sepsis case volume in an ICU in the year of a patient's admission.Main outcomes and measuresHospital mortality after ICU admission for sepsis assessed using a mixed-effects logistic model in a 3-level hierarchical structure based on the number of individual patients nested in years nested within ICUs.ResultsAmong 273 001 patients included in the analysis, the median age was 66 years (interquartile range, 53-76 years), 148 149 (54.3%) were male, and 248 275 (91.0%) were White. The mean ICNARC-2018 illness severity score was 21.0 (95% CI, 20.9-21.0). Septic shock accounted for 19.3% of patient admissions, and 54.3% of patients required mechanical ventilation. The median annual sepsis volume per ICU was 242 cases (interquartile range, 177-334 cases). The study identified a significant association between the volume of sepsis cases in the ICU and mortality from sepsis; in the logistic regression model, hospital mortality was significantly lower among patients admitted to ICUs in the highest quartile of sepsis volume compared with the lowest quartile (odds ratio [OR], 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.96; P = .002). With volume modeled as a restricted cubic spline, treatment in a larger ICU was associated with lower hospital mortality. A lower annual volume threshold of 215 patients above which hospital mortality decreased significantly was found; 38.8% of patients were treated in ICUs below this threshold volume. There was no significant interaction between ICU volume and severity of illness as described by the ICNARC-2018 score (β [SE], -0.00014 [0.00024]; P = .57).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that patients with sepsis in the UK have higher odds of survival if they are treated in an ICU with a larger sepsis case volume. The benefit of a high sepsis case volume was not associated with the severity of the sepsis episode.