Interpreting changes in measles genotype: the contribution of chance, migration and vaccine coverage.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In some populations, complete shifts in the genotype of the strain of measles circulating in the population have been observed, with given genotypes being replaced by new genotypes. Studies have postulated that such shifts may be attributable to differences between the fitness of the new and the old genotypes.

Methods

We developed a stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of measles, simulating the effects of different levels of migration, vaccination coverage and importation of new genotypes on patterns in the persistence and replacement of indigenous genotypes.

Results

The analyses illustrate that complete replacement in the genotype of the strain circulating in populations may occur because of chance. This occurred in >50% of model simulations, for

SUBMITTER: Nojiri S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2346460 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature