Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has required decision-makers to act in the face of substantial uncertainties. Simulation models can be used to project the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, but the choice of the best scenario may change depending on model assumptions and uncertainties.

Methods

We developed a simulation model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a structured population using demographic data from a medium-sized city in Ontario and epidemiologic influenza pandemic data. We projected the attack rate under different combinations of vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug strategies (with corresponding "trigger" conditions). To assess the impact of epidemiologic and program uncertainty, we used "combinatorial uncertainty analysis." Th

SUBMITTER: Gojovic MZ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2774362 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature