Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To determine if one of Hippocrates' aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era.

Design

Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study.

Setting

Manitoba Study of Health and Aging.

Participants

1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years.

Main outcome measure

Time to death.

Methods

We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status.

Results

The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone.

Conclusion

An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era.

SUBMITTER: St John PD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4265979 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature