Dataset Information

Association of Slopes of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate With Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Mortality in Patients With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Transitioning to Dialysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To investigate the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slopes before dialysis initiation with cause-specific mortality after dialysis initiation.

Patients and methods

In this retrospective cohort study of 18,874 US veterans who had transitioned to dialysis from October 1, 2007, through September 30, 2011, we examined the association of pre-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) eGFR slopes with all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality during the post-ESRD period over a median follow-up of 2.0 years (interquartile range, 1.1-3.2 years). Associations were examined using Cox models with adjustment for potential confounders.

Results

Before the 18,874 patients transitioned to dialysis, 4485 (23.8%), 5633 (29.8%), and 7942 (42.1%) experienced fast, moderate, and slow eGFR decline, respectively, and 814 (4.3%) had increasing eGFR (defined as eGFR slopes of less than -10, -10 to less than -5, -5 to <0, and ≥0 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) per year). During the study period, a total of 9744 all-cause, 2702 cardiovascular, and 604 infection-related deaths were observed. Compared with patients with slow eGFR decline, those with moderate and fast eGFR decline had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; 95% CI, 1.00-1.11; and HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.18, respectively) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.23 and HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.00-1.27, respectively). In contrast, increasing eGFR was only associated with higher infection-related mortality (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.03-2.17).

Conclusion

Rapid eGFR decline is associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and increasing eGFR is associated with higher infection-related mortality among incident dialysis cases.

SUBMITTER: Sumida K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4748393 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Association of Slopes of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate With Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Mortality in Patients With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Transitioning to Dialysis.

Sumida Keiichi K Molnar Miklos Z MZ Potukuchi Praveen K PK Thomas Fridtjof F Lu Jun Ling JL Jing Jennie J Ravel Vanessa A VA Soohoo Melissa M Rhee Connie M CM Streja Elani E Kalantar-Zadeh Kamyar K Kovesdy Csaba P CP

Mayo Clinic proceedings 20160201 2

<h4>Objective</h4>To investigate the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slopes before dialysis initiation with cause-specific mortality after dialysis initiation.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>In this retrospective cohort study of 18,874 US veterans who had transitioned to dialysis from October 1, 2007, through September 30, 2011, we examined the association of pre-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) eGFR slopes with all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality dur ...[more]

PMID: 26848002

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Project description:ImportanceThe established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event.ObjectiveTo characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated.Data sources and study selectionIndividual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data.Data extraction and synthesisTransfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012.Main outcomes and measuresEnd-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR.ResultsThe adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.Conclusions and relevanceDeclines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

Project description:BackgroundNew estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations removed race adjustment, but the impact of its removal on prediction of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is unknown.ObjectiveTo compare the ESKD prediction performance of different eGFR equations.DesignObservational, prospective cohort study.Setting7 U.S. clinical centers.Participants3873 participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD) from the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study contributing 13 902 two-year risk periods.MeasurementsESKD was defined as initiation of dialysis or transplantation. eGFR was calculated using 5 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations based on serum creatinine and/or cystatin C, with or without race adjustment. The predicted 2-year risk for ESKD was calculated using the 4-variable Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). We evaluated the prediction performance of eGFR equations and the KFRE score using discrimination and calibration analyses.ResultsDuring a maximum 16 years of follow-up, 856 participants developed ESKD. Across all eGFR equations, the KFRE score was superior for predicting 2-year incidence of ESKD compared with eGFR alone (area under the curve ranges, 0.945 to 0.954 vs. 0.900 to 0.927). Prediction performance of KFRE scores using different eGFR equations was similar, but the creatinine equation without race adjustment improved calibration among Black participants. Among all participants, compared with an eGFR less than 20 mL/min/1.73 m2, a KFRE score greater than 20% had similar specificity for predicting 2-year ESKD risk (ranges, 0.94 to 0.97 vs. 0.95 to 0.98) but higher sensitivity (ranges, 0.68 to 0.78 vs. 0.42 to 0.66).LimitationData are solely from the United States.ConclusionThe KFRE score better predicts 2-year risk for ESKD compared with eGFR alone, regardless of race adjustment. The creatinine equation with age and sex may improve calibration among Black patients. A KFRE score greater than 20% showed high specificity and sensitivity for predicting 2-year risk for ESKD.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health.

Project description:BackgroundRecent studies have reported a trend toward earlier initiation of dialysis (i.e., at higher levels of glomerular filtration rate) and an association between early initiation and increased risk of death. We examined trends in initiation of hemodialysis within Canada and compared the risk of death between patients with early and late initiation of dialysis.MethodsThe analytic cohort consisted of 25 910 patients at least 18 years of age who initiated hemodialysis, as identified from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register (2001-2007). We defined the initiation of dialysis as early if the estimated glomerular filtration rate was greater than 10.5 mL/min per 1.73 m². We fitted time-dependent proportional-hazards Cox models to compare the risk of death between patients with early and late initiation of dialysis.ResultsBetween 2001 and 2007, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate at initiation of dialysis increased from 9.3 (standard deviation [SD] 5.2) to 10.2 (SD 7.1) (p < 0.001), and the proportion of early starts rose from 28% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27%-30%) to 36% (95% CI 34%-37%). Mean glomerular filtration rate was 15.5 (SD 7.7) mL/min per 1.73 m² among those with early initiation and 7.1 (SD 2.0) mL/min per 1.73 m² among those with late initiation. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality with early relative to late initiation was 1.48 (95% CI 1.43-1.54). The HR decreased to 1.18 (95% CI 1.13-1.23) after adjustment for demographic characteristics, serum albumin, primary cause of end-stage renal disease, vascular access type, comorbidities, late referral and transplant status. The mortality differential between early and late initiation per 1000 patient-years narrowed after one year of follow-up, but never crossed and began widening again after 24 months of follow-up. The differences were significant at 6, 12, 30 and 36 months.InterpretationIn Canada, dialysis is being initiated at increasingly higher levels of glomerular filtration rate. A higher glomerular filtration rate at initiation of dialysis is associated with an increased risk of death that is not fully explained by differences in baseline characteristics.

Project description:ImportanceAs cystatin C is increasingly adopted to estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), clinicians will encounter patients in whom cystatin C-based eGFR (eGFRcys) and creatinine-based eGFR (eGFRcr) differ widely. The clinical implications of these differences, eGFRdiffcys-cr, are unknown.ObjectiveTo evaluate the associations of eGFRdiffcys-cr with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and mortality among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD).Design, setting, and participantsThis is a prospective cohort study of 4956 individuals with mild to moderate CKD from 7 clinical centers in the United States who enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study between 2003 to 2018. Statistical analyses were completed in December 2021.ExposureseGFRdiffcys-cr (eGFRcys - eGFRcr) was calculated at baseline and annually thereafter for 3 years. Because 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 represents a clinically meaningful difference in eGFR that also distinguishes CKD stages, eGFRdiffcys-cr was categorized as: less than -15 mL/min/1.73 m2, -15 to 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater.Main outcomes and measuresThe outcomes of ESKD, defined as initiation of maintenance dialysis or receipt of a kidney transplant, and all-cause mortality were adjudicated from study entry until administrative censoring in 2018.ResultsAmong 4956 participants with mean (SD) age of 59.5 (10.5) years, 2152 (43.4%) were Black, 515 (10.4%) were Hispanic, and 2113 (42.6%) were White. There were 2156 (43.5%) women and 2800 (56.5%) men. At baseline, eGFRcys and eGFRcr values differed by more than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 in one-third of participants (1638 participants [33.1%]). Compared with participants with similar baseline eGFRcys and eGFRcr (eGFRdiffcys-cr -15 to 15 mL/min/1.73 m2), those in whom eGFRcys was substantially lower than eGFRcr (eGFRdiffcys-cr < -15 mL/min/1.73 m2) had a higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.86; 95% CI, 1.40-2.48) while those with eGFRdiffcys-cr of 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater had lower risks of ESKD (subHR [SHR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.59-0.89) and mortality (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, CI 0.58-0.81). In time-updated analyses, participants with eGFRdiffcys-cr less than -15 mL/min/1.73 m2 had higher risks of ESKD (SHR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.10-3.04) and mortality (HR, 3.03; 95% CI, 2.19-4.19) compared with participants with similar eGFRcys and eGFRcr. Conversely, participants with eGFRdiffcys-cr of 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater had lower risks of ESKD (SHR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.35-0.71) and mortality (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.45-0.75). Longitudinal changes in eGFRdiffcys-cr were associated with mortality risk. Compared with participants who had similar slopes by eGFRcys and eGFRcr, those with smaller eGFRcr declines had an 8-fold increased mortality risk (HR, 8.20; 95% CI, 6.37-10.56), and those with larger apparent declines by eGFRcr had a lower mortality risk (HR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.08-0.24).Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that large differences between eGFRcys and eGFRcr were common in persons with CKD. These differences and their changes over time may be informative of ESKD and mortality risks, warranting monitoring of both eGFRcys and eGFRcr in this high-risk population.

Dataset Information

Association of Slopes of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate With Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Mortality in Patients With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Transitioning to Dialysis.

Objective

Patients and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Association of Slopes of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate With Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Mortality in Patients With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Transitioning to Dialysis.

Similar Datasets

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