Project description:Quantifying environmental crime and the effectiveness of policy interventions is difficult because perpetrators typically conceal evidence. To prevent illegal uses of natural resources, such as poaching endangered species, governments have advocated granting policy flexibility to local authorities by liberalizing culling or hunting of large carnivores. We present the first quantitative evaluation of the hypothesis that liberalizing culling will reduce poaching and improve population status of an endangered carnivore. We show that allowing wolf (Canis lupus) culling was substantially more likely to increase poaching than reduce it. Replicated, quasi-experimental changes in wolf policies in Wisconsin and Michigan, USA, revealed that a repeated policy signal to allow state culling triggered repeated slowdowns in wolf population growth, irrespective of the policy implementation measured as the number of wolves killed. The most likely explanation for these slowdowns was poaching and alternative explanations found no support. When the government kills a protected species, the perceived value of each individual of that species may decline; so liberalizing wolf culling may have sent a negative message about the value of wolves or acceptability of poaching. Our results suggest that granting management flexibility for endangered species to address illegal behaviour may instead promote such behaviour.
Project description:Re-evaluation of statistical analysis of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) by Torgerson et al. 2024 was rebutted by Mills et al. 2024 Parts I and II. The rebuttal defended the use of count rather than rate when considering bovine tuberculosis herd incidence. The defence makes biologically implausible use of Information Criterion for appraisal diagnostics; overfits data; and has erroneous Bayesian analyses. It favours 'goodness of fit' over 'predictive power', for a small data set, when the study was to inform application. Importantly, for 'total' bTB breakdown: ('confirmed' (OTF-W) +'unconfirmed' (OTF-S)), where modern interpretation of the main diagnostic bTB test better indicates the incidence rate of herd breakdown, there is no effect in cull and neighbouring areas, across all statistical models. The RBCT was a small, single experiment with unknown factors. With respect to the paradigm of reproducibility and the FAIR principles, the original RBCT analysis and recent efforts to support it are wholly unconvincing. The 2006 conclusion of the RBCT that "badger culling is unlikely to contribute positively to the control of cattle TB in Britain" is supported, but the route to such a position is revised in the light of modern veterinary understanding and statistical reappraisal.
Project description:Size-selective mortality inevitably leads to a decrease in population density and exerts a direct negative effect on targeted size classes. But density and population size structure are also shaped by food-dependent processes, such as individual growth, maturation, and reproduction. Mortality relaxes competition and thereby alters the dynamic interplay among these processes. As shown by the recently developed size-structured theory, which can account for food-dependent individual performance, this altered interplay can lead to overcompensatory responses in size class-specific biomass, with increasing mortality. We experimentally tested this theory by subjecting laboratory fish populations to a range of size-selective mortality rates. Overall, the results were in agreement with theoretical predictions. Biomass of the juvenile size class increased above control levels at intermediate adult mortality rates and thereafter declined at high mortality rates. Juvenile biomass also increased when juveniles themselves were subjected to intermediate mortality rates. Biomass in other size classes decreased with mortality. Such biomass overcompensation can have wide-ranging implications for communities and food webs, including a high sensitivity of top predators to irreversible catastrophic collapses, the establishment of alternative stable community states, and the promotion of coexistence and biodiversity.
Project description:In the face of an accelerating extinction crisis, scientists must draw insights from successful conservation interventions to uncover promising strategies for reversing broader declines. Here, we synthesize cases of recovery from a list of 362 species of large carnivores, ecologically important species that function as terminal consumers in many ecological contexts. Large carnivores represent critical conservation targets that have experienced historical declines as a result of direct exploitation and habitat loss. We examine taxonomic and geographic variation in current extinction risk and recovery indices, identify conservation actions associated with positive outcomes, and reveal anthropogenic threats linked to ongoing declines. We find that fewer than 10% of global large carnivore populations are increasing, and only 12 species (3.3%) have experienced genuine improvement in extinction risk, mostly limited to recoveries among marine mammals. Recovery is associated with species legislation enacted at national and international levels, and with management of direct exploitation. Conversely, ongoing declines are robustly linked to threats that include habitat modification and human conflict. Applying lessons from cases of large carnivore recovery will be crucial for restoring intact ecosystems and maintaining the services they provide to humans.
Project description:Populations of adaptable mesopredators are expanding globally where passive rewilding and natural recolonization are taking place, increasing the risk of conflict with remaining livestock farmers. We analysed data from two social surveys of farmers in the Karoo, South Africa, where black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas) and caracals (Caracal caracal) have re-emerged as a threat to sheep farms in the context of falling agricultural employment and the expansion of natural areas. We show that irrespective of measurement approach, lethal control of mesopredators in this fragmented socio-economic landscape was associated with increased livestock losses the following year. Terrain ruggedness was positively, and number of farmworkers negatively, associated with livestock losses. Our study provides further evidence that lethal control of mesopredators in this context is probably counter-productive and supports calls to develop, share and financially support a range of non-lethal methods to protect livestock, especially where natural recolonization of mesopredators is occurring. A graphical abstract can be found in Electronic supplementary material.
Project description:The theoretical optimal olfactory search strategy is to move cross-wind. Empirical evidence supporting wind-associated directionality among carnivores, however, is sparse. We examined satellite-linked telemetry movement data of adult female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Hudson Bay, Canada, in relation to modelled winds, in an effort to understand olfactory search for prey. In our results, the predicted cross-wind movement occurred most frequently at night during winter, the time when most hunting occurs, while downwind movement dominated during fast winds, which impede olfaction. Migration during sea ice freeze-up and break-up was also correlated with wind. A lack of orientation during summer, a period with few food resources, likely reflected reduced cross-wind search. Our findings represent the first quantitative description of anemotaxis, orientation to wind, for cross-wind search in a large carnivore. The methods are widely applicable to olfactory predators and their prey. We suggest windscapes be included as a habitat feature in habitat selection models for olfactory animals when evaluating what is considered available habitat.
Project description:Bovine tuberculosis is an important disease affecting the UK livestock industry. Controlling bovine tuberculosis (TB) is made more complex by the presence of a wildlife host, the Eurasian badger, Meles meles. Repeated large-scale badger culls implemented in the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) were associated with decreased cattle risks inside the culling area, but also with increased cattle risks up to the 2km outside the culling area. Intermediate reductions in badger density, as achieved by localised reactive culling in the RBCT, significantly increased cattle TB. Using a matched-pairs case-control study design (n = 221 pairs of cattle herds), we investigated the spatial scale over which localised badger culling had its biggest impact. We found that reactive badger culling had a significant positive association with the risk of cattle TB at distances of 1-3km and 3-5km, and that no such association existed over shorter distances (<1km). These findings indicate that localised badger culls had significant negative effects, not on the land on which culling took place, but, perhaps more importantly, on adjoining lands and farms.
Project description:Animal foraging and competition are defined by the partitioning of three primary niche axes: space, time, and resources. Human disturbance is rapidly altering the spatial and temporal niches of animals, but the impact of humans on resource consumption and partitioning-arguably the most important niche axis-is poorly understood. We assessed resource consumption and trophic niche partitioning as a function of human disturbance at the individual, population, and community levels using stable isotope analysis of 684 carnivores from seven communities in North America. We detected significant responses to human disturbance at all three levels of biological organization: individual carnivores consumed more human food subsidies in disturbed landscapes, leading to significant increases in trophic niche width and trophic niche overlap among species ranging from mesocarnivores to apex predators. Trophic niche partitioning is the primary mechanism regulating coexistence in many communities, and our results indicate that humans fundamentally alter resource niches and competitive interactions among terrestrial consumers. Among carnivores, niche overlap can trigger interspecific competition and intraguild predation, while the consumption of human foods significantly increases human-carnivore conflict. Our results suggest that human disturbances, especially in the form of food subsidies, may threaten carnivores by increasing the probability of both interspecific competition and human-carnivore conflict. Ultimately, these findings illustrate a potential decoupling of predator-prey dynamics, with impacts likely cascading to populations, communities, and ecosystems.