Project description:BACKGROUND:Pediatric casualties account for a notable proportion of encounters in the deployed setting based on the humanitarian medical care mission. Previously published data demonstrates that an age-adjust shock index may be a useful tool in predicting massive transfusion and death in children. We seek to determine if those previous findings are applicable to the deployed, combat trauma setting. METHODS:We queried the Department of Defense Trauma Registry (DODTR) for all pediatric subjects admitted to US and Coalition fixed-facility hospitals in Iraq and Afghanistan from January 2007 to January 2016. This is a secondary analysis of casualties seeking to validate previously published data using the shock index, pediatric age-adjusted. We then used previously published thresholds to determine patients outcome for validation by age grouping, 1-3?years (1.2), 4-6?years (1.2), 7-12?years (1.0), 13-17?years (0.9). RESULTS:From January 2007 through January 2016 there were 3439 pediatric casualties of which 3145 had a documented heart rate and systolic pressure. Of those 502 (16.0%) underwent massive transfusion and 226 (7.2%) died prior to hospital discharge. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) thresholds were inconsistent across age groups ranging from 1.0 to 1.9 with generally limited area under the curve (AUC) values for both massive transfusion and death prediction characteristics. Using the previously defined thresholds for validation, we report sensitivity and specificity for the massive transfusion by age-group: 1-3 (0.73, 0.35), 4-6 (0.63, 0.60), 7-12 (0.80, 0.57), 13-17 (0.77, 0.62). For death, 1-3 (0.75, 0.34), 4-6 (0.66-0.59), 7-12 (0.64, 0.52), 13-17 (0.70, 0.57). However, negative predictive values (NPV) were generally high with all greater than 0.87. CONCLUSIONS:Within the combat setting, the age-adjusted pediatric shock index had moderate sensitivity and relatively poor specificity for predicting massive transfusion and death. Better scoring systems are needed to predict resource needs prior to arrival, that perhaps include other physiologic metrics. We were unable to validate the previously published findings within the combat trauma population.
Project description:Acinetobacter isolates associated with casualties from the Iraq conflict from the United States were compared with those from the United Kingdom by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and integron analysis. Representatives of the main outbreak strain associated with casualties from both countries were indistinguishable in DNA profile. Two further outbreak strains were common to both sets of isolates.
Project description:In 2020, almost 50% of dictatorships included multiple parties in their government. Existing research has not studied this systematically, and generally considers granting outsiders access to ministerial cabinets a risky and costly strategy. This article provides evidence of authoritarian multiparty governments (AMGs) being a global and increasingly common phenomena. We argue that AMGs are a power-sharing strategy whereby autocrats co-opt outsiders through cabinet appointments to divide the opposition and consolidate their rule. Using individual-level data on ministers' partisan affiliation in autocracies worldwide, we show that AMGs positively correlate with ethnic divides, civil war, and "democratic" institutions, and we use new measures of power sharing to demonstrate that coalition partners often exert a real influence through their ministerial mandates. Our findings suggest that AMG is an overlooked survival strategy for autocrats and highlight the need to focus more on the organization and composition of the political executive in autocracies.
Project description:PurposeRisk of violence by UK military personnel, both towards non-family and family, has been found to be higher post-deployment. However, no UK research to date has attempted to examine relationship conflict and intimate partner violence (IPV) in this period. This study estimated the prevalence of and risk factors for post-deployment relationship conflict and partner violence in UK military personnel.MethodsWe utilised data on military personnel who had deployed to Iraq and/or Afghanistan (n = 5437), drawn from a large cohort study into the health and well-being of UK military personnel.Results34.7% reported relationship conflict (arguing with partner) and 3.4% reported perpetrating physical IPV post-deployment. Males were more likely than females to report relationship conflict. There were similar rates of self-reported physical IPV perpetration among males and females. Among our male sample, factors associated with both relationship conflict and physical IPV perpetration post-deployment included being in the Army compared with the Royal Air Force, higher levels of childhood adversity, higher levels of military trauma exposure and recent mental health and alcohol misuse problems. Being over 40 at time of deployment (vs being under 25) and having deployed in a combat role were also associated with relationship conflict, but not physical IPV perpetration.ConclusionsDeployment-related variables and mental health and alcohol misuse problems were found to be key factors associated with post-deployment relationship conflict and IPV. Services providing health or welfare support to military personnel must collaborate with mental health services and consider history of deployment, and particularly deployment-related trauma, in their assessments to improve identification and management of intimate partner violence and abuse in military communities.
Project description:Governments in modern societies undertake an array of complex functions that shape politics and economics, individual and group behavior, and the natural, social, and built environment. How are governments structured to execute these diverse responsibilities? How do those structures vary, and what explains the differences? To examine these longstanding questions, we develop a technique for mapping Internet "footprint" of government with network science methods. We use this approach to describe and analyze the diversity in functional scale and structure among the 50 US state governments reflected in the webpages and links they have created online: 32.5 million webpages and 110 million hyperlinks among 47,631 agencies. We first verify that this extensive online footprint systematically reflects known characteristics: 50 hierarchically organized networks of state agencies that scale with population and are specialized around easily identifiable functions in accordance with legal mandates. We also find that the footprint reflects extensive diversity among these state functional hierarchies. We hypothesize that this variation should reflect, among other factors, state income, economic structure, ideology, and location. We find that government structures are most strongly associated with state economic structures, with location and income playing more limited roles. Voters' recent ideological preferences about the proper roles and extent of government are not significantly associated with the scale and structure of their state governments as reflected online. We conclude that the online footprint of governments offers a broad and comprehensive window on how they are structured that can help deepen understanding of those structures.
Project description:Battle casualties treated as indoor patients at a military hospital between December 89 and December 94 were prospectively evaluated. Out of 3640 patients, 388 (10.7%) had chest injuries. Among the 388 patients 190 (48.9%) had haemothorax. Pleurocentesis was the fastest and the most reliable means of establishing the diagnosis of haemothorax. Thoracostomy with supportive care was adequate to manage 75 per cent of these cases which included more than 50 per cent of those with massive haemothorax. Twelve patients out of the 190 cases (6.3%) who presented with haemothorax needed thoracotomy. The overall mortality in this series was 7 per cent.
Project description:Governments are increasingly adopting behavioral science techniques for changing individual behavior in pursuit of policy objectives. The types of "nudge" interventions that governments are now adopting alter people's decisions without coercion or significant changes to economic incentives. We calculated ratios of impact to cost for nudge interventions and for traditional policy tools, such as tax incentives and other financial inducements, and we found that nudge interventions often compare favorably with traditional interventions. We conclude that nudging is a valuable approach that should be used more often in conjunction with traditional policies, but more calculations are needed to determine the relative effectiveness of nudging.
Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of insertable cardiac monitors (ICMs) compared with standard of care (SoC) for detecting atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients at high risk of stroke (CHADS2 >2), using a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective.MethodsUsing patient characteristics and clinical data from the REVEAL AF trial, a Markov model assessed the cost-effectiveness of detecting AF with an ICM compared with SoC. Costs and benefits were extrapolated across modelled patient lifetime. Ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes, intracranial and extracranial haemorrhages and minor bleeds were modelled. Diagnostic and device costs were included, plus costs of treating stroke and bleeding events and costs of oral anticoagulants (OACs). Costs and health outcomes, measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were discounted at 3.5% per annum. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were undertaken.ResultsThe total per-patient cost for ICM was £13 360 versus £11 936 for SoC (namely, annual 24 hours Holter monitoring). ICMs generated a total of 6.50 QALYs versus 6.30 for SoC. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £7140/QALY gained, below the £20 000/QALY acceptability threshold. ICMs were cost-effective in 77.4% of PSA simulations. The number of ICMs needed to prevent one stroke was 21 and to cause a major bleed was 37. ICERs were sensitive to assumed proportions of patients initiating or discontinuing OAC after AF diagnosis, type of OAC used and how intense the traditional monitoring was assumed to be under SoC.ConclusionsThe use of ICMs to identify AF in a high-risk population is cost-effective for the UK NHS.
Project description:When a sports medicine doctor provides coverage for a sporting event with a large number of athletes and spectators, he or she should always be aware that the potential for a large number of injuries exists. In the event of a mass casualty incident that overwhelms the available medical resources, he or she may be the most qualified professional present to triage and organise patient care. Certain basic rules of triage in a disaster situation should be followed, the goal being to save as many lives as possible. Special circumstances, such as crush injuries, lightning strikes, and blast injuries, may affect the triage and initial care of injured patients.
Project description:IntroductionThe Afghanistan war (2003-2014) was a unique period in military medicine. Many service personnel survived injuries of a severity that would have been fatal at any other time in history; the long-term health outcomes of such injuries are unknown. The ArmeD SerVices TrAuma and RehabilitatioN OutComE (ADVANCE) study aims to determine the long-term effects on both medical and psychosocial health of servicemen surviving this severe combat related trauma.Methods and analysisADVANCE is a prospective cohort study. 1200 Afghanistan-deployed male UK military personnel and veterans will be recruited and will be studied at 0, 3, 6, 10, 15 and 20 years. Half are personnel who sustained combat trauma; a comparison group of the same size has been frequency matched based on deployment to Afghanistan, age, sex, service, rank and role. Participants undergo a series of physical health tests and questionnaires through which information is collected on cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD risk factors, musculoskeletal disease, mental health, functional and social outcomes, quality of life, employment and mortality.Ethics and disseminationThe ADVANCE Study has approval from the Ministry of Defence Research Ethics Committee (protocol no:357/PPE/12) agreed 15 January 2013. Its results will be disseminated through manuscripts in clinical/academic journals and presentations at professional conferences, and through participant and stakeholder communications.Trial registration numberThe ADVANCE Study is registered at ISRCTN ID: ISRCTN57285353.