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ABSTRACT: Aim
We aimed to develop a prediction model for the diagnosis of gestational diabetes and to evaluate the performance of published prediction tools on our population.Methods
We conducted a cohort study on nondiabetic women < 26 weeks gestation at a level 1 clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. At recruitment, participants completed a questionnaire and random basal glucose and HbA1c were evaluated. A 75 g 2-hour OGTT was scheduled between 24-28 weeks gestation, as per FIGO guidelines. A score was derived using multivariate logistic regression. Published scoring systems were tested by deriving ROC curves.Results
In 554 women, RBG, BMI, and previous baby ≥ 4000 g were significant risk factors included for GDM, which were used to derive a nomogram-based score. The logistic regression model for prediction of GDM had R2 0.143, Somer's Dxy rank correlation 0.407, and Harrell's c-score 0.703. HbA1c did not improve predictive value of the nomogram at any threshold (e.g,. at probability > 10%, 25.6% of cases were detected without the HbA1c, and 25.8% of cases would have been detected with the HbA1c). The 9 published scoring systems performed poorly.Conclusion
We propose a nomogram-based score that can be used at first antenatal visit to identify women at high risk of GDM.
SUBMITTER: Adam S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5671730 | biostudies-literature | 2017
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Journal of diabetes research 20171022
<h4>Aim</h4>We aimed to develop a prediction model for the diagnosis of gestational diabetes and to evaluate the performance of published prediction tools on our population.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a cohort study on nondiabetic women < 26 weeks gestation at a level 1 clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. At recruitment, participants completed a questionnaire and random basal glucose and HbA1c were evaluated. A 75 g 2-hour OGTT was scheduled between 24-28 weeks gestation, as per FIGO guidelin ...[more]