Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease.

Methods

In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to defi

SUBMITTER: Pigott DM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5735217 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature