Project description:A fundamental question in ecology is how the success of a taxon changes through time and what drives this change. This question is commonly approached using trajectories averaged over a group of taxa. Using results from probability theory, we show analytically and using examples that averaged trajectories will be more symmetric as the number of averaged trajectories increases, even if none of the original trajectories they were derived from is symmetric. This effect is not only based on averaging, but also on the introduction of noise and the incorporation of a priori known origination and extinction times. This implies that averaged trajectories are not suitable for deriving information about the processes driving the success of taxa. In particular, symmetric waxing and waning, which is commonly observed and interpreted to be linked to a number of different paleobiological processes, does not allow drawing any conclusions about the nature of the underlying process.
Project description:BackgroundThe waxing and waning of negative affect in daily life is normative, reflecting an adaptive capacity to respond flexibly to changing circumstances. However, understanding of the brain structure correlates of affective variability in naturalistic settings has been limited. Using network control theory, we examine facets of brain structure that may enable negative affect variability in daily life.MethodsWe used diffusion-weighted imaging data from 95 young adults (age [in years]: mean = 20.19, SD = 1.80; 56 women) to construct structural connectivity networks that map white matter fiber connections between 200 cortical and 14 subcortical regions. We applied network control theory to these structural networks to estimate the degree to which each brain region's pattern of structural connectivity facilitates the spread of activity to other brain systems. We examined how the average controllability of functional brain systems relates to negative affect variability, computed by taking the standard deviation of negative affect self-reports collected via smartphone-based experience sampling twice per day over 28 days as participants went about their daily lives.ResultsWe found that high average controllability of the cingulo-insular system is associated with increased negative affect variability. We also found that greater negative affect variability is related to the presence of more depressive symptoms, yet average controllability of the cingulo-insular system was not associated with depressive symptoms.ConclusionsOur results highlight the role that brain structure plays in affective dynamics as observed in the context of daily life, suggesting that average controllability of the cingulo-insular system promotes normative negative affect variability.
Project description:Spike-wave discharges (SWDs) on the EEG during absence epilepsy are waxing and waning stages of corticothalamic hypersynchrony. While the somatosensory cortex contains an epileptic focus, the role of thalamic nuclei in SWD generation is debated. Here we assess the contribution of distinct thalamic nuclei through multiple-site unit recordings in a genetic rat model of absence epilepsy and cross-correlation analysis, revealing coupling strength and directionality of neuronal activity at high temporal resolution. Corticothalamic coupling increased and decreased during waxing and waning of SWD, respectively. A cortical drive on either sensory or higher order thalamic nuclei distinguished between onset and offset of SWD, respectively. Intrathalamic coupling steadily increased during maintained SWD activity, peaked at SWD offset, and subsequently displayed a sharp decline to baseline. The peak in intrathalamic coupling coincided with a sharp increase in coupling strength between reticular thalamic nucleus and somatosensory cortex. This increased influence of the inhibitory reticular thalamic nucleus is suggested to serve as a break for SWD activity. Overall, the data extend the cortical focus theory of absence epilepsy by identifying a regionally specific cortical lead over distinct thalamic nuclei, particularly also during waning of generalized epileptic discharges, thereby revealing a potential window and location for intervention.
Project description:Hemodialysis (HD) patients are vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and have a high mortality rate. We evaluated the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibody (ACOV2S) levels in 385 HD patients before and 4 and 8 weeks after the second dose of vector-based ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. For study control, week 4 ACOV2S levels after the second vaccination dose were measured in 66 healthcare workers (HCWs). The seroconversion rate of HD patients was 98.96% 4 weeks after the second vaccination. Despite low antibody levels before the second dose (week 0), week 4 ACOV2S levels after the second vaccine dose in HD patients increased prominently and were compatible with those in HCWs (p = 0.814 for HCWs vs. HD patients). The ACOV2S levels in HD patients waned significantly 8 weeks after the second vaccination dose (p < 0.001 at week 8 vs. 4). Older age and immunosuppressant use were negative predictors, while higher C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were positive predictors of ACOV2S waxing after the second vaccine dose in HD patients. Higher CRP levels and platelet counts were independently associated with decreased ACOV2S waning. The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine is effective and safe for primary vaccination in HD patients and a booster dose is necessary.
Project description:For infectious diseases where immunization can offer lifelong protection, a variety of simple models can be used to explain the utility of vaccination as a control method. However, for many diseases, immunity wanes over time and is subsequently enhanced (boosted) by asymptomatic encounters with the infection. The study of this type of epidemiological process requires a model formulation that can capture both the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and immune system as well as the associated population-level transmission dynamics. Here, we parametrize such a model for measles and show how vaccination can have a range of unexpected consequences as it reduces the natural boosting of immunity as well as reducing the number of naive susceptibles. In particular, we show that moderate waning times (40-80 years) and high levels of vaccination (greater than 70%) can induce large-scale oscillations with substantial numbers of symptomatic cases being generated at the peak. In addition, we predict that, after a long disease-free period, the introduction of infection will lead to far larger epidemics than that predicted by standard models. These results have clear implications for the long-term success of any vaccination campaign and highlight the need for a sound understanding of the immunological mechanisms of immunity and vaccination.
Project description:BackgroundIn December 2020, Israel began a mass vaccination campaign against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) by administering the BNT162b2 vaccine, which led to a sharp curtailing of the outbreak. After a period with almost no cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, a resurgent Covid-19 outbreak began in mid-June 2021. Possible reasons for the resurgence were reduced vaccine effectiveness against the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and waning immunity. The extent of waning immunity of the vaccine against the delta variant in Israel is unclear.MethodsWe used data on confirmed infection and severe disease collected from an Israeli national database for the period of July 11 to 31, 2021, for all Israeli residents who had been fully vaccinated before June 2021. We used a Poisson regression model to compare rates of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe Covid-19 among persons vaccinated during different time periods, with stratification according to age group and with adjustment for possible confounding factors.ResultsAmong persons 60 years of age or older, the rate of infection in the July 11-31 period was higher among persons who became fully vaccinated in January 2021 (when they were first eligible) than among those fully vaccinated 2 months later, in March (rate ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.0). Among persons 40 to 59 years of age, the rate ratio for infection among those fully vaccinated in February (when they were first eligible), as compared with 2 months later, in April, was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1). Among persons 16 to 39 years of age, the rate ratio for infection among those fully vaccinated in March (when they were first eligible), as compared with 2 months later, in May, was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0). The rate ratio for severe disease among persons fully vaccinated in the month when they were first eligible, as compared with those fully vaccinated in March, was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9) among persons 60 years of age or older and 2.2 (95% CI, 0.6 to 7.7) among those 40 to 59 years of age; owing to small numbers, the rate ratio could not be calculated among persons 16 to 39 years of age.ConclusionsThese findings indicate that immunity against the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 waned in all age groups a few months after receipt of the second dose of vaccine.
Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has continued to evolve. XBB is a recombinant between two BA.2 sublineages, XBB.1 includes the G252V mutation, and XBB.1.5 includes the G252V and F486P mutations. XBB.1.5 has rapidly increased in frequency and has become the dominant virus in New England. The bivalent mRNA vaccine boosters have been shown to increase neutralizing antibody (NAb) titers to multiple variants, but the durability of these responses remains to be determined. We assessed humoral and cellular immune responses in 30 participants who received the bivalent mRNA boosters and performed assays at baseline prior to boosting, at week 3 after boosting, and at month 3 after boosting. Our data demonstrate that XBB.1.5 substantially escapes NAb responses but not T cell responses after bivalent mRNA boosting. NAb titers to XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 were similar, suggesting that the F486P mutation confers greater transmissibility but not increased immune escape. By month 3, NAb titers to XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 declined essentially to baseline levels prior to boosting, while NAb titers to other variants declined less strikingly.
Project description:Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines were highly effective against the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain, but the efficacy of bivalent mRNA boosters against XBB variants was substantially lower. Here, we show limited durability of neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses against XBB variants and isotype switching to immunoglobulin G4 (IgG4) responses following bivalent mRNA boosting. Bivalent mRNA boosting elicited modest XBB.1-, XBB.1.5-, and XBB.1.16-specific NAbs that waned rapidly within 3 months. In contrast, bivalent mRNA boosting induced more robust and sustained NAbs against the ancestral WA1/2020 strain, suggesting immune imprinting. Following bivalent mRNA boosting, serum antibody responses were primarily IgG2 and IgG4 responses with poor Fc functional activity. In contrast, a third monovalent mRNA immunization boosted all isotypes including IgG1 and IgG3 with robust Fc functional activity. These data show substantial immune imprinting for the ancestral spike and isotype switching to IgG4 responses following bivalent mRNA boosting, with important implications for future booster designs and boosting strategies.
Project description:Lung resident memory (Trm) CD8 T cells induced by influenza A virus (IAV), are pivotal for providing heterosubtypic immunity, but are not maintained long term, causing gradual loss of protection. This contrasts sharply with long-term maintenance of Trm induced by localized infections of the skin and other tissues. Here we show that the decline in lung Trm is determined by an imbalance between apoptosis and lung recruitment/conversion to Trm of circulating memory cells. At the cellular level, circulating effector memory (Tem) rather than central memory (Tcm) cells are the precursors for conversion to lung Trm. Time-dependent changes in expression of genes critical for Trm differentiation together with enrichment of Tcm diminish the capacity of circulating memory CD8 T cells to form Trm, explaining why IAV-induced Trm are not stably maintained over time. Importantly, systemic booster immunization, through increasing the number of circulating Tem cells, induces an increase in lung Trm pool, providing a new rational for future IAV vaccines.
Project description:We use survival analysis to analyze the decay in the protection induced by eight SARS-CoV-2 vaccines using data from 33,418 fully anonymized patients from the IMSS public health system in Mexico, including only previously vaccinated, confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive with a PCR test. We analyze the waning effect in those with complete vs. incomplete dose fitting a Weibull distribution. We compare these results with an estimate of the waning effect due to active infection. In two-dose vaccines, we found that the average protection time of a complete dose increases 2.6 times compared to that of an incomplete dose. All analyzed vaccines provided a protection that lasted longer than the protection due to active infection, except in those patients that did not fulfilled the complete dose. The average protection of a full dose is 2.2 times larger than that provided by active infection. The average protection of active infection is about the same as the average protection of an incomplete dose. All evaluated vaccines had lost most of their protective effect between 8 and 11 months of application of first shot. Our results highly correlate with NT50 and other estimates of vaccine efficacy. We found that on average, vaccination increases Age50, the age at which there is a 50% probability of severe disease if infected, in 15 years. We also found that Age50 increases with mean protection time.