Dataset Information

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected.

Objective

We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies.

Methods

We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay.

Results

Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario.

Conclusion

We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

SUBMITTER: Stephen DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5963579 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

Stephen Dimity Maree DM Barnett Adrian Gerard AG

Environmental health perspectives 20171211 12

<h4>Background</h4>The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected.<h4>Objective</h4>We used microsimulation models to estimate the health an ...[more]

PMID: 29233795

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Project description:ObjectivesTo estimate the health care and societal costs of inherited retinal diseases (IRDs) in Australia.Design, setting, participantsMicrosimulation modelling study based on primary data - collected in interviews of people with IRDs who had ophthalmic or genetic consultations at the Children's Hospital at Westmead or the Save Sight Institute (both Sydney) during 1 January 2019 - 31 December 2020, and of their carers and spouses - and linked Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule (PBS) data.Main outcome measuresAnnual and lifetime costs for people with IRDs and for their carers and spouses, grouped by payer (Australian government, state governments, individuals, private health insurance) and type (health care costs; societal costs: social support, National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), income and taxation, costs associated with caring for family members with IRDs); estimated annual national cost of IRDs.ResultsNinety-four people (74 adults, 20 people under 18 years; 55 girls and women [59%]) and 30 carers completed study surveys (participation rate: adults, 66%; children, 66%; carers, 63%). Total estimated lifetime cost was $5.2 million per person with an IRD, of which 87% were societal and 13% health care costs. The three highest cost items were lost income for people with IRDs ($1.4 million), lost income for their carers and spouses ($1.1 million), and social spending by the Australian government (excluding NDIS expenses: $1.0 million). Annual costs were twice as high for people who were legally blind as for those with less impaired vision ($83 910 v $41 357 per person). The estimated total annual cost of IRDs in Australia was $781 million to $1.56 billion.ConclusionAs the societal costs associated with IRDs are much larger than the health care costs, both contributors should be considered when assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions for people with IRDs. The increasing loss of income across life reflects the impact of IRDs on employment and career opportunities.

Dataset Information

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

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