Project description:Previous research has demonstrated that various properties of infectious diseases can be inferred from online search behaviour. In this work we use time series of online search query frequencies to gain insights about the prevalence of COVID-19 in multiple countries. We first develop unsupervised modelling techniques based on associated symptom categories identified by the United Kingdom's National Health Service and Public Health England. We then attempt to minimise an expected bias in these signals caused by public interest-as opposed to infections-using the proportion of news media coverage devoted to COVID-19 as a proxy indicator. Our analysis indicates that models based on online searches precede the reported confirmed cases and deaths by 16.7 (10.2-23.2) and 22.1 (17.4-26.9) days, respectively. We also investigate transfer learning techniques for mapping supervised models from countries where the spread of the disease has progressed extensively to countries that are in earlier phases of their respective epidemic curves. Furthermore, we compare time series of online search activity against confirmed COVID-19 cases or deaths jointly across multiple countries, uncovering interesting querying patterns, including the finding that rarer symptoms are better predictors than common ones. Finally, we show that web searches improve the short-term forecasting accuracy of autoregressive models for COVID-19 deaths. Our work provides evidence that online search data can be used to develop complementary public health surveillance methods to help inform the COVID-19 response in conjunction with more established approaches.
Project description:Background and purposeThe objective of this work is to evaluate the risk of carcinogenesis of low dose ionizing radiation therapy (LDRT), for treatment of immune-related pneumonia following COVID-19 infection, through the estimation of effective dose and the lifetime attributable risk of cancer (LAR).Material and methodsLDRT treatment was planned in male and female computational phantoms. Equivalent doses in organs were estimated using both treatment planning system calculations and a peripheral dose model (based on ionization chamber measurements). Skin dose was estimated using radiochromic films. Later, effective dose and LAR were calculated following radiation protection procedures.ResultsEquivalent doses to organs per unit of prescription dose range from 10 mSv/cGy to 0.0051 mSv/cGy. Effective doses range from 204 mSv to 426 mSv, for prescription doses ranging from 50 cGy to 100 cGy. Total LAR for a prescription dose of 50 cGy ranges from 1.7 to 0.29% for male and from 4.9 to 0.54% for female, for ages ranging from 20 to 80 years old.ConclusionsThe organs that mainly contribute to risk are lung and breast. Risk for out-of-field organs is low, less than 0.06 cases per 10000. Female LAR is on average 2.2 times that of a male of the same age. Effective doses are of the same order of magnitude as the higher-dose interventional radiology techniques. For a 60 year-old male, LAR is 8 times that from a cardiac CT, when prescription dose is 50 cGy.
Project description:The escalating prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide, with an increased rate of morbidity and mortality, highlights an urgent need to develop more effective therapeutic interventions. Despite the authorized treatment against COVID-19 by the European Union (EU), the safety and effectiveness of this therapeutic strategy for a wide variety of patients have remained a significant challenge. In this respect, micronutrients such as vitamins and minerals, as essential factors, can be considered for improving the function of the immune system and accelerating the treatment procedure. Dietary supplements can attenuate vascular and inflammatory manifestations related to infectious diseases in large part due to their anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties. Recently, it has been revealed that poor nutritional status may be one of the notable risk factors in severe COVID-19 infections. In the current review, we focus on the micronutrient therapy of COVID-19 patients and provide a comprehensive insight into the essential vitamins/minerals and their role in controlling the severity of the COVID-19 infection. We also discuss the recent advancements, challenges, negative and positive outcomes in relevance to this approach.
Project description:As the COVID-19 spread over the globe and new variants of COVID-19 keep occurring, reliable real-time forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations are critical for public health decisions on medical resources allocations. This paper aims to forecast future 2 weeks national and state-level COVID-19 new hospital admissions in the United States. Our method is inspired by the strong association between public search behavior and hospitalization admissions and is extended from a previously-proposed influenza tracking model, AutoRegression with GOogle search data (ARGO). Our LASSO-penalized linear regression method efficiently combines Google search information and COVID-19 related time series information with dynamic training and rolling window prediction. Compared to other publicly available models collected from COVID-19 forecast hub, our method achieves substantial error reduction in a retrospective out-of-sample evaluation from Jan 4, 2021, to Dec 27, 2021. Overall, we showed that our method is flexible, self-correcting, robust, accurate, and interpretable, making it a potentially powerful tool to assist healthcare officials and decision making for the current and future infectious disease outbreaks.
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the importance of teaching medical students pandemic preparedness and COVID-19 related clinical knowledge. To fill the gap of COVID-19 instruction backed by evaluation data, we present a comprehensive COVID-19 pilot curriculum with multiple levels of evaluation data.MethodsIn the spring of 2020, the University of California, Irvine (UCI) School of Medicine piloted a two-week, primarily asynchronous COVID-19 elective course for medical students. The goal of the course is to provide a foundation in clinical care for COVID-19 while introducing students to emerging issues of a modern pandemic. Objectives align with institutional objectives, and instruction is delivered in thematic modules. Our curriculum utilizes numerous instructional strategies effective in distance learning including independent learning modules (ILM), reading, video lectures, discussion board debates, simulation and evidence-based argument writing. We designed a three-level, blended evaluation plan grounded in the Kirkpatrick and Kirkpatrick evaluation model that assessed student satisfaction, relevance, confidence, knowledge and behavior.ResultsOur end of course survey revealed that students had high levels of satisfaction with the curriculum, and felt the course was relevant to their clinical education. Various assessment tools showed excellent levels of knowledge attainment. All respondents rated themselves as highly confident with the use of personal protective equipment, though fewer were confident with ventilator management.ConclusionOverall our pilot showed that we were able to deliver relevant, satisfying COVID-19 instruction while allowing students to demonstrate knowledge and desired behaviors in COVID-19 patient care.