An "Old" Methodological Pitfall: Numbers of Deaths Due to Reducing Air Pollution Cannot Be Identified from Epidemiological Data.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Morfeld P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7175984 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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An "Old" Methodological Pitfall: Numbers of Deaths Due to Reducing Air Pollution Cannot Be Identified from Epidemiological Data.
Morfeld Peter P Erren Thomas C TC
Annals of the American Thoracic Society 20200401 4
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7175985 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Studies have reported that ambient air pollution is associated with an increased risk of developing or dying from coronavirus-2 (COVID-19). Methodological approaches to investigate the health impacts of air pollution on epidemics should differ from those used for chronic diseases, but the methods used in these studies have not been appraised critically. OBJECTIVES:Our study aimed to identify and critique the methodological approaches of studies of air pollution on infections and mortality due to COVID-19 and to identify and critique the methodological approaches of similar studies concerning severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). METHODS:Published and unpublished papers of associations between air pollution and developing or dying from COVID-19 or SARS that were reported as of 10 May 2020 were identified through electronic databases, internet searches, and other sources. RESULTS:All six COVID-19 studies and two of three SARS studies reported positive associations. Two were time series studies that estimated associations between daily changes in air pollution, one was a cohort that assessed associations between air pollution and the secondary spread of SARS, and six were ecological studies that used area-wide exposures and outcomes. Common shortcomings included possible cross-level bias in ecological studies, underreporting of health outcomes, using grouped data, the lack of highly spatially resolved air pollution measures, inadequate control for confounding and evaluation of effect modification, not accounting for regional variations in the timing of outbreaks' temporal changes in at-risk populations, and not accounting for nonindependence of outcomes. DISCUSSION:Studies of air pollution and novel coronaviruses have relied mainly on ecological measures of exposures and outcomes and are susceptible to important sources of bias. Although longitudinal studies with individual-level data may be imperfect, they are needed to adequately address this topic. The complexities involved in these types of studies underscore the need for careful design and for peer review. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7411.
| S-EPMC7480171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.
| S-EPMC10978932 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The large availability of both air pollution and COVID-19 data, and the simplicity to make geographical correlations between them, led to a proliferation of ecological studies relating the levels of pollution in administrative areas to COVID-19 incidence, mortality or lethality rates. However, the major drawback of these studies is the ecological fallacy that can lead to spurious associations. In this frame, an increasing concern has been addressed to clarify the possible role of contextual variables such as municipalities' characteristics (including urban, rural, semi-rural settings), those of the resident communities, the network of social relations, the mobility of people, and the responsiveness of the National Health Service (NHS), to better clarify the dynamics of the phenomenon. The objective of this paper is to identify and collect the municipalities' and community contextual factors and to synthesize their information content to produce suitable indicators in national environmental epidemiological studies, with specific emphasis on assessing the possible role of air pollution on the incidence and severity of the COVID-19 disease. A first step was to synthesize the content of spatial information, available at the municipal level, in a smaller set of "summary indexes" that can be more easily viewed and analyzed. For the 7903 Italian municipalities (1 January 2020-ISTAT), 44 variables were identified, collected, and grouped into five information dimensions a priori defined: (i) geographic characteristics of the municipality, (ii) demographic and anthropogenic characteristics, (iii) mobility, (iv) socio-economic-health area, and (v) healthcare offer (source: ISTAT, EUROSTAT or Ministry of Health, and further ad hoc elaborations (e.g., OpenStreetMaps)). Principal component analysis (PCA) was carried out for the five identified dimensions, with the aim of reducing the large number of initial variables into a smaller number of components, limiting as much as possible the loss of information content (variability). We also included in the analysis PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 population weighted exposure (PWE) values obtained using a four-stage approach based on the machine learning method, "random forest", which uses space-time predictors, satellite data, and air quality monitoring data estimated at the national level. Overall, the PCA made it possible to extract twelve components: three for the territorial characteristics dimension of the municipality (variance explained 72%), two for the demographic and anthropogenic characteristics dimension (variance explained 62%), three for the mobility dimension (variance explained 83%), two for the socio-economic-health sector (variance explained 58%) and two for the health offer dimension (variance explained 72%). All the components of the different dimensions are only marginally correlated with each other, demonstrating their potential ability to grasp different aspects of the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 pathology. This work provides a national repository of contextual variables at the municipality level collapsed into twelve informative factors suitable to be used in studies on the association between chronic exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 pathology, as well as for investigations on the role of air pollution on the health of the Italian population.
| S-EPMC8910469 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the age of the Anthropocene, the ocean has typically been viewed as a sink for pollution. Pollution is varied, ranging from human-made plastics and pharmaceutical compounds, to human-altered abiotic factors, such as sediment and nutrient runoff. As global population, wealth and resource consumption continue to grow, so too does the amount of potential pollution produced. This presents us with a grand challenge which requires interdisciplinary knowledge to solve. There is sufficient data on the human health, social, economic, and environmental risks of marine pollution, resulting in increased awareness and motivation to address this global challenge, however a significant lag exists when implementing strategies to address this issue. This review draws upon the expertise of 17 experts from the fields of social sciences, marine science, visual arts, and Traditional and First Nations Knowledge Holders to present two futures; the Business-As-Usual, based on current trends and observations of growing marine pollution, and a More Sustainable Future, which imagines what our ocean could look like if we implemented current knowledge and technologies. We identify priority actions that governments, industry and consumers can implement at pollution sources, vectors and sinks, over the next decade to reduce marine pollution and steer us towards the More Sustainable Future.Graphic abstractSupplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09674-8.
| S-EPMC8326648 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose of reviewThe purpose of this scoping review was to summarize literature regarding the use of user-generated digital data collected for non-epidemiological purposes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) research.Recent findingsThirty-nine papers were included in the final review. Four types of digital data were used: social media data, web search queries, mobile phone data, and data from global positioning system (GPS) devices. With these data, four HIV epidemiological objectives were pursued, including disease surveillance, behavioral surveillance, assessment of public attention to HIV, and characterization of risk contexts. Approximately one-third used machine learning for classification, prediction, or topic modeling. Less than a quarter discussed the ethics of using user-generated data for epidemiological purposes. User-generated digital data can be used to monitor, predict, and contextualize HIV risk and can help disrupt trajectories of risk closer to onset. However, more attention needs to be paid to digital ethics and the direction of the field in a post-Application Programming Interface (API) world.
| S-EPMC10719139 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionResearch on snakebite has mostly been conducted on settled populations and current risk factors and potential interventions are therefore most suited for these populations. There is limited epidemiological data on mobile and nomadic populations, who may have a higher risk of snakebite.Methods and resultsWe conducted a scoping review to gather evidence on survey methods used in nomadic populations and compared them with contemporary survey methods used for snakebite research. Only 16 (10.5%) of 154 articles reportedly conducted on pastoralist nomadic populations actually involved mobile pastoralists. All articles describing snakebite surveys (n = 18) used multistage cluster designs on population census sampling frames, which would not be appropriate for nomadic populations. We used geospatial techniques and open-source high-resolution satellite images to create a digital sampling frame of 50,707 households and used a multistage sampling strategy to survey nomadic and semi-nomadic populations in Samburu County, Kenya. From a sample of 900 geo-located households, we correctly identified and collected data from 573 (65.4%) households, of which 409 were in their original locations and 164 had moved within 5km of their original locations. We randomly sampled 302 (34.6%) households to replace completely abandoned and untraceable households.ConclusionHighly mobile populations require specific considerations in selecting or creating sampling frames and sampling units for epidemiological research. Snakebite risk has a strong spatial component and using census-based sampling frames would be inappropriate in nomadic populations. We propose using open-source satellite imaging and geographic information systems to improve the conduct of epidemiological research in these populations.
| S-EPMC10754435 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Estimates of the annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths are needed to set priorities for surveillance, prevention, and control strategies. The objective of this study was to determine such estimates for 2008-2013 in France. We considered 15 major foodborne pathogens (10 bacteria, 3 viruses, and 2 parasites) and estimated that each year, the pathogens accounted for 1.28-2.23 million illnesses, 16,500-20,800 hospitalizations, and 250 deaths. Campylobacter spp., nontyphoidal Salmonella spp., and norovirus accounted for >70% of all foodborne pathogen-associated illnesses and hospitalizations; nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes were the main causes of foodborne pathogen-associated deaths; and hepatitis E virus appeared to be a previously unrecognized foodborne pathogen causing ≈68,000 illnesses in France every year. The substantial annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths in France highlight the need for food-safety policymakers to prioritize foodborne disease prevention and control strategies.
| S-EPMC5572882 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Microplastics can affect their surroundings physically and chemically, resulting in diverse effects on plant-soil systems. Similar to other substances (e.g. nutrients and water), microplastics in the environment occur in patches. Such heterogeneous distributions could affect plant responses to plastic pollution. Yet, this has remained untested. We conducted a multispecies experiment including 29 herbaceous plant species and three different microplastic treatments (a control without microplastics, a homogeneous and a heterogeneous microplastic distribution). Based on biomass and root-morphological traits, we assessed how different plastic distributions affect the performance and root-foraging behavior of plants, and whether stronger root foraging is beneficial when microplastics are distributed patchily. Next to general effects on plant productivity and root morphology, we found very strong evidence for root-foraging responses to patchy plastic distributions, with a clear preference for plastic-free patches, resulting in 25% longer roots and 20% more root biomass in the plastic-free patches. Interestingly, however, these foraging responses were correlated with a reduced plant performance, indicating that the benefits of plastic avoidance did not compensate for the associated investments. Our results provide new insights in plant-microplastic interactions and suggest that plants might not just be passively affected by but could also actively respond to environmental plastic pollution.
| S-EPMC10613303 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo estimate all cause and cause specific deaths that are attributable to fossil fuel related air pollution and to assess potential health benefits from policies that replace fossil fuels with clean, renewable energy sources.DesignObservational and modelling study.MethodsAn updated atmospheric composition model, a newly developed relative risk model, and satellite based data were used to determine exposure to ambient air pollution, estimate all cause and disease specific mortality, and attribute them to emission categories.Data sourcesData from the global burden of disease 2019 study, observational fine particulate matter and population data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellites, and atmospheric chemistry, aerosol, and relative risk modelling for 2019.ResultsGlobally, all cause excess deaths due to fine particulate and ozone air pollution are estimated at 8.34 million (95% confidence interval 5.63 to 11.19) deaths per year. Most (52%) of the mortality burden is related to cardiometabolic conditions, particularly ischaemic heart disease (30%). Stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease both account for 16% of mortality burden. About 20% of all cause mortality is undefined, with arterial hypertension and neurodegenerative diseases possibly implicated. An estimated 5.13 million (3.63 to 6.32) excess deaths per year globally are attributable to ambient air pollution from fossil fuel use and therefore could potentially be avoided by phasing out fossil fuels. This figure corresponds to 82% of the maximum number of air pollution deaths that could be averted by controlling all anthropogenic emissions. Smaller reductions, rather than a complete phase-out, indicate that the responses are not strongly non-linear. Reductions in emission related to fossil fuels at all levels of air pollution can decrease the number of attributable deaths substantially. Estimates of avoidable excess deaths are markedly higher in this study than most previous studies for these reasons: the new relative risk model has implications for high income (largely fossil fuel intensive) countries and for low and middle income countries where the use of fossil fuels is increasing; this study accounts for all cause mortality in addition to disease specific mortality; and the large reduction in air pollution from a fossil fuel phase-out can greatly reduce exposure.ConclusionPhasing out fossil fuels is deemed to be an effective intervention to improve health and save lives as part the United Nations' goal of climate neutrality by 2050. Ambient air pollution would no longer be a leading, environmental health risk factor if the use of fossil fuels were superseded by equitable access to clean sources of renewable energy.
| S-EPMC10686100 | biostudies-literature