Dataset Information

Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, estimating the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time.

Methods

A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on the CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on these results, we performed a meta-analysis for a global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed using two different calculations of CFR: according to the calendar date and according to the days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR, concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis.

Results

For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses according to the calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case, were different.

Conclusion

We propose that a CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.

SUBMITTER: Ghayda RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7462556 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.

Ghayda Ramy Abou RA Lee Keum Hwa KH Han Young Joo YJ Ryu Seohyun S Hong Sung Hwi SH Yoon Sojung S Jeong Gwang Hun GH Lee Jinhee J Lee Jun Young JY Yang Jae Won JW Effenberger Maria M Eisenhut Michael M Kronbichler Andreas A Solmi Marco M Li Han H Jacob Louis L Koyanagi Ai A Radua Joaquim J Shin Jae Il JI Smith Lee L

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20200901

<h4>Objective</h4>Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, estimating the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time.<h4>Methods</h4>A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on the CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on th ...[more]

PMID: 32882434

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background:A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveillance and control activities. Objective:To estimate the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and describe its public health implications. Design:Pooled analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between 4 January 2020 and 24 February 2020. Setting:News reports and press releases from 50 provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Participants:Persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection outside Hubei province, China. Measurements:Patient demographic characteristics and dates and times of possible exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and hospitalization. Results:There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. Limitation:Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases. Conclusion:This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases. Primary Funding Source:U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

Dataset Information

Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.

Similar Datasets

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