The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas.

Methods

The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t₀ was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit.

Results

Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the

SUBMITTER: Massad E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7578070 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep - Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature