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The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.


ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region.

Methods

Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020.

Results

In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives.

Conclusion

While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.

SUBMITTER: Mburu CN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7854026 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.

Mburu C N CN   Ojal J J   Chebet R R   Akech D D   Karia B B   Tuju J J   Sigilai A A   Abbas K K   Jit M M   Funk S S   Smits G G   van Gageldonk P G M PGM   van der Klis F R M FRM   Tabu C C   Nokes D J DJ   Scott Jag J   Flasche S S   Adetifa Imo I  

BMC medicine 20210203 1


<h4>Background</h4>The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region.<h4>Methods</h4>Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreak  ...[more]

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