COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: Pressing Realities and City Management.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Li RYM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7925403 | biostudies-literature | 2020
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: Pressing Realities and City Management.
Li Rita Yi Man RYM Yue Xiao-Guang XG Crabbe M James C MJC
Frontiers in public health 20210217
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Project description:BackgroundReaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.MethodsWe collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.ResultsA total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old.ConclusionsApproximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.
| S-EPMC8712277 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), infected over 3300 healthcare workers in early 2020 in China. Little information is known about nosocomial infections of healthcare workers in the initial period. We analysed data from healthcare workers with nosocomial infections in Wuhan Union Hospital (Wuhan, China) and their family members. We collected and analysed data on exposure history, illness timelines and epidemiological characteristics from 25 healthcare workers with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and two healthcare workers in whom COVID-19 was highly suspected, as well as 10 of their family members with COVID-19, between 5 January and 12 February 2020. The demographics and clinical features of the 35 laboratory-confirmed cases were investigated and viral RNA of 12 cases was sequenced and analysed. Nine clusters were found among the patients. All patients showed mild to moderate clinical manifestation and recovered without deterioration. The mean period of incubation was 4.5 days, the mean±sd clinical onset serial interval (COSI) was 5.2±3.2 days, and the median virus shedding time was 18.5 days. Complete genomic sequences of 12 different coronavirus strains demonstrated that the viral structure, with small irrelevant mutations, was stable in the transmission chains and showed remarkable traits of infectious traceability. SARS-CoV-2 can be rapidly transmitted from person to person, regardless of whether they have symptoms, in both hospital settings and social activities, based on the short period of incubation and COSI. The public health service should take practical measures to curb the spread, including isolation of cases, tracing close contacts, and containment of severe epidemic areas. Besides this, healthcare workers should be alert during the epidemic and self-quarantine if self-suspected of infection.
| S-EPMC7236818 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7166011 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Few study has revealed spatial transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. We aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan and its influence factors. Information of 32,682 COVID-19 cases reported through March 18 were extracted from the national infectious disease surveillance system. Geographic information system methods were applied to analysis transmission of COVID-19 and its influence factors in different periods. We found decrease in effective reproduction number (Rt) and COVID-19 related indicators through taking a series of effective public health measures including restricting traffic, centralized quarantine and strict stay-at home policy. The distribution of COVID-19 cases number in Wuhan showed obvious global aggregation and local aggregation. In addition, the analysis at streets-level suggested population density and the number of hospitals were associated with COVID-19 cases number. The epidemic situation showed obvious global and local spatial aggregations. High population density with larger number of hospitals may account for the aggregations. The epidemic in Wuhan was under control in a short time after strong quarantine measures and restrictions on movement of residents were implanted.
| S-EPMC8249501 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly detection is critical in limiting the spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Although previous data revealed characteristics of GI symptoms in COVID-19, for patients with only GI symptoms onset, their diagnostic process and potential transmission risk are still unclear.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed 205 COVID-19 cases from January 16 to March 30, 2020, in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University. All patients were confirmed by virus nuclei acid tests. The clinical features and laboratory and chest tomographic (CT) data were recorded and analyzed.ResultsA total of 171 patients with classic symptoms (group A) and 34 patients with only GI symptoms (group B) were included. In patients with classical COVID-19 symptoms, GI symptoms occurred more frequently in severe cases compared to non-severe cases (20/43 vs. 91/128, respectively, p < 0.05). In group B, 91.2% (31/34) patients were non-severe, while 73.5% (25/34) patients had obvious infiltrates in their first CT scans. Compared to group A, group B patients had a prolonged time to clinic services (5.0 days vs. 2.6 days, p < 0.01) and a longer time to a positive viral swab normalized to the time of admission (6.9 days vs. 3.3 days, respectively, p < 0.01). Two patients in group B had family clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infection.ConclusionPatients with only GI symptoms of COVID-19 may take a longer time to present to healthcare services and receive a confirmed diagnosis. In areas where infection is rampant, physicians must remain vigilant of patients presenting with acute gastrointestinal symptoms and should do appropriate personal protective equipment.
| S-EPMC7658436 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading and resulting in a significant loss of life around the world. However, specific information characterizing cardiovascular changes in COVID-19 is limited. Methods: In this single-centered, observational study, we enrolled 38 adult patients with COVID-19 from February 10 to March 13, 2020. Clinical records, laboratory findings, echocardiography, and electrocardiogram reports were collected and analyzed. Results: Of the 38 patients enrolled, the median age was 68 years [interquartile range (IQR), 55-74] with a slight female majority (21, 55.3%). Nineteen (50.0%) patients had hypertension. Seven (33.3%) had ST-T segment and T wave changes, and four (19%) had sinus tachycardia. Twenty (52.6%) had an increase in ascending aorta (AAO) diameter, 22 (57.9%) had an increase in left atrium (LA) size, and 28 (73.7%) presented with ventricular diastolic dysfunction. Correlation analysis showed that the AAO diameter was significantly associated with C-reactive protein (r = 0.4313) and creatine kinase-MB (r = 0.0414). LA enlargement was significantly associated with C-reactive protein (r = 0.4377), brain natriuretic peptide (r = 0.7612), creatine kinase-MB (r = 0.4940), and aspartate aminotransferase (r = 0.2947). Lymphocyte count was negatively associated with the AAO diameter (r = -0.5329) and LA enlargement (r = -0.3894). Conclusions: Hypertension was a common comorbidity among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and cardiac injury was the most common complication. Changes in cardiac structure and function manifested mainly in the left heart and AAO in these patients. Abnormal AAO and LA size were found to be associated with severe inflammation and cardiac injury. Alternatively, ascending aortic dilation and LA enlargement might be present before infection but characterized the patient at risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
| S-EPMC7498715 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic.MethodsWe used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic.FindingsBased on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71).ConclusionWhile the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.
| S-EPMC7716094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 has spread to many cities and countries in the world since the major outbreak in Wuhan city in later 2019. Population flow is the main channel of COVID-19 transmission between different cities and countries. This study recognizes that the flows of different population groups such as visitors and migrants returning to hometown are different in nature due to different length of stay and exposure to infection risks, contributing to the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 differently. To model population flows and the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 more accurately, a population group based SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) metapopulation model is developed consisting of 32 regions including Wuhan, the rest of Hubei and other 30 provinces in Mainland China. The paper found that, in terms of the total export, Wuhan residents as visitors and Wuhan migrants returned to hometown were the first and second largest contributors in the simulation period. In terms of the net export, Wuhan migrants returned to hometown were the largest contributor, followed by Wuhan residents as visitors.
| S-EPMC10121107 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The global outbreak of COVID-19 has further exposed deficiencies in city logistics based on human and ground roads, such as poor emergency response capacity and high risk of infection during transportation. Metro-based underground logistics system (M-ULS) may be an innovative approach to deal with this city-level disaster due to its efficient operation, contactless and driverless characteristics. However, the market evolution process and the quantitative calculation framework of comprehensive benefits after the application of M-ULS are still unclear, which has become a problem of mutual restriction with the extensive application of M-ULS. This paper attempts to use the system dynamics method, based on the real-world simulation, to analyze the quantitative relationship between the M-ULS implementation and the city logistics performance under epidemic outbreaks. Wuhan city in China was selected as the empirical background, and five simulation scenarios were set under different implementation strategies of M-ULS in response to the epidemic. Six variables were selected to measure city logistics performance and M-ULS operation status, including demand fill-rate, unit delivery time, total deprivation cost, total transportation cost, total number of susceptible people, and utilization rate of M-ULS. The results show that M-ULS is effective in improving the performance of city logistics and responding to the epidemic. The delivery time and transportation cost have a strong impact on the market share of M-ULS. Finally, a set of incentive policies was designed to promote the adoption of M-ULS. The findings not only provide a method for evaluating the overall performance of M-ULS, but also provide a unique perspective for promoting the implementation of M-ULS and responding to the transportation challenges brought by the epidemic.
| S-EPMC8556189 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads globally. Scientists have made strides in estimating key transmission and epidemiological parameters. In particular, accumulating evidence points to a substantial fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections, which influences our understanding of the transmission potential and severity of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China, in 2019-2020 reached values at 3.49 (95% CrI 3.39-3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23 in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95% CrI 0.81-0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e., cumulative infections) estimated at 1,906,634 (95% CrI 1,373,500-2,651,124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95% CrI 13.5-26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95% CrI 0.08-0.17%), respectively, estimates that are substantially smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%.ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, during January-February 2020 using an ecological modeling approach that is suitable to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems. Our estimate of time-delay adjusted IFR falls in the range of the median IFR estimates based on multiple serological studies conducted in several areas of the world.
| S-EPMC7360469 | biostudies-literature