Dataset Information

External validation of the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model for risk adjusting mortality.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction (PEP) model was created to provide risk stratification for all pediatric patients requiring extracorporeal life support (ECLS). Our purpose was to externally validate the model using contemporaneous cases submitted to the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) registry.

Methods

This multicenter, retrospective analysis included pediatric patients (<19 years) during their initial ECLS run for all indications between January 2012 and September 2014. Median values from the BATE dataset for activated partial thromboplastin time and internationalized normalized ratio were used as surrogates as these were missing in the ELSO group. Model discrimination was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and goodness-of-fit was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results

A total of 4,342 patients in the ELSO registry were compared to 514 subjects from the bleeding and thrombosis on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (BATE) dataset used to develop the PEP model. Overall mortality was similar (42% ELSO vs. 45% BATE). The c-statistic after external validation decreased from 0.75 to 0.64 and model calibration decreases most in the highest risk deciles.

Conclusion

Discrimination of the PEP model remains modest after external validation using the largest pediatric ECLS cohort. While the model overestimates mortality for the highest risk patients, it remains the only prediction model applicable to both neonates and pediatric patients who require ECLS for any indication and thus maintains potential for application in research and quality benchmarking.

SUBMITTER: Bailly DK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7956121 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

External validation of the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model for risk adjusting mortality.

Bailly David K DK Furlong-Dillard Jamie M JM Winder Melissa M Lavering Mark M Barbaro Ryan P RP Meert Kathleen L KL Bratton Susan L SL Dalton Heidi H Reeder Ron W RW

Perfusion 20200829 4

<h4>Introduction</h4>The Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction (PEP) model was created to provide risk stratification for all pediatric patients requiring extracorporeal life support (ECLS). Our purpose was to externally validate the model using contemporaneous cases submitted to the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) registry.<h4>Methods</h4>This multicenter, retrospective analysis included pediatric patients (<19 years) during their initial ECLS run for all indi ...[more]

PMID: 32862782

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Project description:ObjectivesTo develop a prognostic model for predicting mortality at time of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation initiation for children which is important for determining center-specific risk-adjusted outcomes.DesignMultivariable logistic regression using a large national cohort of pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation patients.SettingThe ICUs of the eight tertiary care children's hospitals of the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network.PatientsFive-hundred fourteen children (< 19 yr old), enrolled with an initial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation run for any indication between January 2012 and September 2014.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsA total of 514 first extracorporeal membrane oxygenation runs were analyzed with an overall mortality of 45% (n = 232). Weighted logistic regression was used for model selection and internal validation was performed using cross validation. The variables included in the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model were age (pre-term neonate, full-term neonate, infant, child, and adolescent), indication for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, cardiac, or respiratory), meconium aspiration, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, documented blood stream infection, arterial blood pH, partial thromboplastin time, and international normalized ratio. The highest risk of mortality was associated with the presence of a documented blood stream infection (odds ratio, 5.26; CI, 1.90-14.57) followed by extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (odds ratio, 4.36; CI, 2.23-8.51). The C-statistic was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.80).ConclusionsThe Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model represents a model for predicting in-hospital mortality among children receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support for any indication. Consequently, it holds promise as the first comprehensive pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation risk stratification model which is important for benchmarking extracorporeal membrane oxygenation outcomes across many centers.

Project description:ObjectiveOur objective was to develop and validate a prognostic score for predicting mortality at the time of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation initiation for children with respiratory failure. Preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation mortality prediction is important for determining center-specific risk-adjusted outcomes and counseling families.DesignMultivariable logistic regression of a large international cohort of pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation patients.SettingMulti-institutional data.PatientsPrognostic score development: A total of 4,352 children more than 7 days to less than 18 years old, with an initial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation run for respiratory failure reported to the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization's data registry during 2001-2013 were used for derivation (70%) and validation (30%). Bidirectional stepwise logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with mortality. Retained variables were assigned a score based on the odds of mortality with higher scores indicating greater mortality. External validation was accomplished using 2,007 patients from the Pediatric Health Information System dataset.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsThe Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction score included mode of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation mechanical ventilation more than 14 days; preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation severity of hypoxia; primary pulmonary diagnostic categories including, asthma, aspiration, respiratory syncytial virus, sepsis-induced respiratory failure, pertussis, and "other"; and preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation comorbid conditions of cardiac arrest, cancer, renal and liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for internal and external validation datasets were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.71) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69).ConclusionsPediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction is a validated tool for predicting in-hospital mortality among children with respiratory failure receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support.

Project description:BackgroundPediatric postcardiotomy veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) patients have high mortality and morbidity. There are currently three scoring systems available to predict mortality: the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction (PEP) model, Precannulation Pediatric Survival After VA-ECMO (Pedi-SAVE) score, and Postcannulation Pedi-SAVE score. These methods provide risk stratification scores for pediatric patients requiring ECMO for cardiac support. However, comparative validation of these scoring systems remains scarce. We aim to assess the ability of these models to predict outcomes in a cohort of pediatric patients undergoing VA-ECMO after cardiac surgery, and identify predictors of in-hospital mortality.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 101 children admitted to Fuwai Hospital who received VA-ECMO from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020 was performed. Patients were divided into two groups, survivors (n = 49) and non-survivors (n = 52) according to in-hospital mortality. PEP model and Pedi-SAVE scores were calculated. The primary outcomes were the risk factors of in-hospital mortality, and the ability of the PEP model, Precannulation Pedi-SAVE and Postcannulation Pedi-SAVE scores to predict in-hospital mortality.ResultsPostcannulation Pedi-SAVE score accessing the entire ECMO process had the greatest area under receiver operator curve (AUROC), 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.733-0.899]. Pre-ECMO PEP model could predict in-hospital mortality [AUROC = 0.691 (95% CI: 0.565-0.817)], and Precannulation Pedi-SAVE score had the poorest prediction [AUROC = 0.582(95% CI: 0.471-0.694)]. Lactate value at ECMO implantation [OR = 1.199 (1.064-1.351), P = 0.003] and infectious complications [OR = 5.169 (1.652-16.172), P = 0.005] were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality.ConclusionPediatric cardiac ECMO scoring systems, including multiple risk factors before and during ECMO, were found to be useful in this cohort. Both the pre-ECMO PEP model and the Postcannulation Pedi-SAVE score were found to have high predictive value for in-hospital mortality in pediatric postcardiotomy VA-ECMO.

Project description:ObjectiveExtracorporeal membrane oxygenation, an accepted rescue therapy for refractory cardiopulmonary failure, requires a complex multidisciplinary approach and advanced technology. Little is known about the relationship between a center's case volume and patient mortality. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between hospital extracorporeal membrane oxygenation annual volume and in-hospital mortality and assess if a minimum hospital volume could be recommended.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingA retrospective cohort admitted to children's hospitals in the Pediatric Health Information System database from 2004 to 2011 supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was identified. Indications were assigned based on patient age (neonatal vs pediatric), diagnosis, and procedure codes. Average hospital annual volume was defined as 0-19, 20-49, or greater than or equal to 50 cases per year. Maximum likelihood estimates were used to assess minimum annual case volume.PatientsA total of 7,322 pediatric patients aged 0-18 were supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and had an indication assigned.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsAverage hospital extracorporeal membrane oxygenation volume ranged from 1 to 58 cases per year. Overall mortality was 43% but differed significantly by indication. After adjustment for case-mix, complexity of cardiac surgery, and year of treatment, patients treated at medium-volume centers (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.75-0.98) and high-volume centers (odds ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89) had significantly lower odds of death compared with those treated at low-volume centers. The minimum annual case load most significantly associated with lower mortality was 22 (95% CI, 22-28).ConclusionsPediatric centers with low extracorporeal membrane oxygenation average annual case volume had significantly higher mortality and a minimum volume of 22 cases per year was associated with improved mortality. We suggest that this threshold should be evaluated by additional study.

Project description:ObjectivesTo describe factors associated with hemolysis during pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and the relationships between hemolysis, complications, and mortality.DesignSecondary analysis of data collected prospectively by the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network between December 2012 and September 2014.SettingThree Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network-affiliated hospitals.PatientsAge less than 19 years and treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsHemolysis was defined based on peak plasma free hemoglobin levels during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and categorized as none (< 0.001 g/L), mild (0.001 to < 0.5 g/L), moderate (0.5 to < 1.0 g/L), or severe (≥ 1.0 g/L). Of 216 patients, four (1.9%) had no hemolysis, 67 (31.0%) had mild, 51 (23.6%) had moderate, and 94 (43.5%) had severe. On multivariable analysis, variables independently associated with higher daily plasma free hemoglobin concentration included the use of in-line hemofiltration or other continuous renal replacement therapy, higher hemoglobin concentration, higher total bilirubin concentration, lower mean heparin infusion dose, lower body weight, and lower platelet count. Using multivariable Cox modeling, daily plasma free hemoglobin was independently associated with development of renal failure during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (defined as creatinine > 2 mg/dL [> 176.8 μmol/L] or use of in-line hemofiltration or continuous renal replacement therapy) (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.06; p < 0.001), but not mortality (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.04; p = 0.389).ConclusionsHemolysis is common during pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Hemolysis may contribute to the development of renal failure, and therapies used to manage renal failure such as in-line hemofiltration and other forms of continuous renal replacement therapy may contribute to hemolysis. Hemolysis was not associated with mortality after controlling for other factors. Monitoring for hemolysis should be a routine part of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation practice, and efforts to reduce hemolysis may improve patient care.

Project description:BackgroundClinical outcome of ischemic cardiogenic shock (CS) requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation is highly variable, necessitating appropriate assessment of prognosis. However, a systemic predictive model estimating the mortality of refractory ischemic CS is lacking. The PRECISE (Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality for Patients With Refractory Ischemic Cardiogenic Shock Requiring Veno-Arterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support) score was developed to predict the prognosis of refractory ischemic CS due to acute myocardial infarction.Methods and resultsData were obtained from the multicenter CS registry RESCUE (Retrospective and Prospective Observational Study to Investigate Clinical Outcomes and Efficacy of Left Ventricular Assist Device for Korean Patients With Cardiogenic Shock) that consists of 322 patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by refractory ischemic CS requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. Fifteen parameters were selected to assess in-hospital mortality. The developed model was validated internally and externally using an independent external cohort (n=138). Among 322 patients, 138 (42.9%) survived postdischarge. Fifteen predictors were included for model development: age, diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, peak lactic acid, serum creatinine, lowest left ventricular ejection fraction, vasoactive inotropic score, shock to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation insertion time, extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, use of intra-aortic balloon pump, continuous renal replacement therapy, mechanical ventilator, successful coronary revascularization, and staged percutaneous coronary intervention. The PRECISE score yielded a high area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (0.894 [95% CI, 0.860-0.927]). External validation and calibration resulted in competent sensitivity (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.895 [95% CI, 0.853-0.930]).ConclusionsThe PRECISE score demonstrated high predictive performance and directly translates into the expected in-hospital mortality rate. The PRECISE score may be used to support clinical decision-making in ischemic CS (www.theprecisescore.com).RegistrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02985008.

Dataset Information

External validation of the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model for risk adjusting mortality.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

External validation of the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model for risk adjusting mortality.

Similar Datasets

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