Dataset Information

Rupture Risk of Intracranial Aneurysm and Prediction of Hemorrhagic Stroke after Liver Transplant.

ABSTRACT: Postoperative hemorrhagic stroke (HS) is a rare yet devastating complication after liver transplantation (LT). Unruptured intracranial aneurysm (UIA) may contribute to HS; however, related data are limited. We investigated UIA prevalence and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and HS incidence post-LT. We identified risk factors for 1-year HS and constructed a prediction model. This study included 3544 patients who underwent LT from January 2008 to February 2019. Primary outcomes were incidence of SAH, HS, and mortality within 1-year post-LT. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis and Cox proportional hazard analysis were performed. The prevalence of UIAs was 4.63% (n = 164; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.95-5.39%). The 1-year SAH incidence was 0.68% (95% CI, 0.02-3.79%) in patients with UIA. SAH and HS incidence and mortality were not different between those with and without UIA before and after PSM. Cirrhosis severity, thrombocytopenia, inflammation, and history of SAH were identified as risk factors for 1-year HS. UIA presence was not a risk factor for SAH, HS, or mortality in cirrhotic patients post-LT. Given the fatal impact of HS, a simple scoring system was constructed to predict 1-year HS risk. These results enable clinical risk stratification of LT recipients with UIA and help assess perioperative HS risk before LT.

SUBMITTER: Kwon HM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8066281 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Rupture Risk of Intracranial Aneurysm and Prediction of Hemorrhagic Stroke after Liver Transplant.

Kwon Hye-Mee HM Jun In-Gu IG Kim Kyoung-Sun KS Moon Young-Jin YJ Huh In Young IY Lee Jungmin J Song Jun-Gol JG Hwang Gyu-Sam GS

Brain sciences 20210331 4

Postoperative hemorrhagic stroke (HS) is a rare yet devastating complication after liver transplantation (LT). Unruptured intracranial aneurysm (UIA) may contribute to HS; however, related data are limited. We investigated UIA prevalence and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and HS incidence post-LT. We identified risk factors for 1-year HS and constructed a prediction model. This study included 3544 patients who underwent LT from January 2008 to February 2019. Primary outcomes were incid ...[more]

PMID: 33807191

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Project description:ImportanceUnruptured intracranial aneurysms not undergoing preventive endovascular or neurosurgical treatment are often monitored radiologically to detect aneurysm growth, which is associated with an increase in risk of rupture. However, the absolute risk of aneurysm rupture after detection of growth remains unclear.ObjectiveTo determine the absolute risk of rupture of an aneurysm after detection of growth during follow-up and to develop a prediction model for rupture.Design, setting, and participantsIndividual patient data were obtained from 15 international cohorts. Patients 18 years and older who had follow-up imaging for at least 1 untreated unruptured intracranial aneurysm with growth detected at follow-up imaging and with 1 day or longer of follow-up after growth were included. Fusiform or arteriovenous malformation-related aneurysms were excluded. Of the 5166 eligible patients who had follow-up imaging for intracranial aneurysms, 4827 were excluded because no aneurysm growth was detected, and 27 were excluded because they had less than 1 day follow-up after detection of growth.ExposuresAll included aneurysms had growth, defined as 1 mm or greater increase in 1 direction at follow-up imaging.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was aneurysm rupture. The absolute risk of rupture was measured with the Kaplan-Meier estimate at 3 time points (6 months, 1 year, and 2 years) after initial growth. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify predictors of rupture after growth detection.ResultsA total of 312 patients were included (223 [71%] were women; mean [SD] age, 61 [12] years) with 329 aneurysms with growth. During 864 aneurysm-years of follow-up, 25 (7.6%) of these aneurysms ruptured. The absolute risk of rupture after growth was 2.9% (95% CI, 0.9-4.9) at 6 months, 4.3% (95% CI, 1.9-6.7) at 1 year, and 6.0% (95% CI, 2.9-9.1) at 2 years. In multivariable analyses, predictors of rupture were size (7 mm or larger hazard ratio, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-7.2), shape (irregular hazard ratio, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3-6.5), and site (middle cerebral artery hazard ratio, 3.6; 95% CI, 0.8-16.3; anterior cerebral artery, posterior communicating artery, or posterior circulation hazard ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 0.6-13.0). In the triple-S (size, site, shape) prediction model, the 1-year risk of rupture ranged from 2.1% to 10.6%.Conclusion and relevanceWithin 1 year after growth detection, rupture occurred in approximately 1 of 25 aneurysms. The triple-S risk prediction model can be used to estimate absolute risk of rupture for the initial period after detection of growth.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Ruptured aneurysms, the commonest cause of nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage, can be catastrophic; the mortality and morbidity of affected patients being very high. Some risk factors, such as smoking, hypertension and female sex have been identified, whereas others, such as hemodynamics, imaging, and genomics, remain unclear. Currently, no accurate model that includes all factors for predicting such rupture is available. We plan to use data from a large cohort of Chinese individuals to set up a multidimensional model for predicting risk of rupture of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs). METHODS:The China Intracranial Aneurysm Project-2 (CIAP-2) will comprise screening of a cohort of 500 patients with UIA (From CIAP-1) and focus on hemodynamic factors, high resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HRMRI) findings, genetic factors, and biomarkers. Possible risk factors for rupture of UIA, including genetic factors, biomarkers, HRMRI, and hemodynamic factors, will be analyzed. The first project of the China Intracranial Aneurysm Project (CIAP-1; chaired by the Department of Neurosurgery, Tangdu Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China) will prospectively collect a cohort of 5000 patients with UIA from 20 centers in China, and collect baseline information for each patient. Multidimensional data will be acquired in follow-up assessments. Statistically significant clinical features in the UIA cohort will also be analyzed and integrated into the model for predicting risk of UIA rupture. After the model has been set up, the resultant evidence-based prediction will provide a preliminary theoretical basis for treating aneurysms at high risk of rupture. DISCUSSION:This study will explore the risk of rupture of aneurysms and develop a scientific multidimensional model for predicting rupture of unruptured intracranial aneurysms. Clinical Trials registration A Study on a Multidimensional Prediction Model for Rupture Risk of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms (CIAP-2), NCT03133624. Registered: 16 April 2017. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03133624.

Dataset Information

Rupture Risk of Intracranial Aneurysm and Prediction of Hemorrhagic Stroke after Liver Transplant.

Publications

Rupture Risk of Intracranial Aneurysm and Prediction of Hemorrhagic Stroke after Liver Transplant.

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