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Quantifying the potential dominance of immune-evading SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Recent evidence suggests that some new SARS-CoV-2 variants with spike mutations, such as P.1 (Gamma) and B.1.617.2 (Delta), exhibit partial immune evasion to antibodies generated by natural infection or vaccination. By considering the Gamma and Delta variants in a multi-variant transmission dynamic model, we evaluated the dominance of these variants in the United States (US) despite mounting vaccination coverage and other circulating variants. Our results suggest that while the dominance of the Gamma variant is improbable, the Delta variant would become the most prevalent variant in the US, driving a surge in infections and hospitalizations. Our study highlights the urgency for accelerated vaccination and continued adherence to non-pharmaceutical measures until viral circulation is driven low.

SUBMITTER: Sah P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8132270 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying the potential dominance of immune-evading SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States.

Sah Pratha P Vilches Thomas N TN Shoukat Affan A Fitzpatrick Meagan C MC Pandey Abhishek A Singer Burton H BH Moghadas Seyed M SM Galvani Alison P AP

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20210818

Recent evidence suggests that some new SARS-CoV-2 variants with spike mutations, such as P.1 (Gamma) and B.1.617.2 (Delta), exhibit partial immune evasion to antibodies generated by natural infection or vaccination. By considering the Gamma and Delta variants in a multi-variant transmission dynamic model, we evaluated the dominance of these variants in the United States (US) despite mounting vaccination coverage and other circulating variants. Our results suggest that while the dominance of the ...[more]

PMID: 34013295

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