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Risk scorecard to minimize impact of COVID-19 when reopening.

ABSTRACT: We present a novel approach for exiting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns using a 'risk scorecard' to prioritize activities to resume whilst allowing safe reopening. We modelled cases generated in the community/week, incorporating parameters for social distancing, contact tracing and imported cases. We set thresholds for cases and analysed the effect of varying parameters. An online tool to facilitate country-specific use including the modification of parameters (https://sshsphdemos.shinyapps.io/covid_riskbudget/) enables visualization of effects of parameter changes and trade-offs. Local outbreak investigation data from Singapore illustrate this. Setting a threshold of 0.9 mean number of secondary cases arising from a case to keep R < 1, we showed that opening all activities excluding high-risk ones (e.g. nightclubs) allows cases to remain within threshold; while opening high-risk activities would exceed the threshold and result in escalating cases. An 80% reduction in imported cases per week (141 to 29) reduced steady-state cases by 30% (295 to 205). One-off surges in cases (due to superspreading) had no effect on the steady state if the R remains <1. Increasing the effectiveness of contact tracing (probability of a community case being isolated when infectious) by 33% (0.6 to 0.8) reduced cases by 22% (295 to 231). Cases grew exponentially if the product of the mean number of secondary cases arising from a case and (1-probability of case being isolated) was >1. Countries can utilize a 'risk scorecard' to balance relaxations for travel and domestic activity depending on factors that reduce disease impact, including hospital/ICU capacity, contact tracing, quarantine and vaccination. The tool enabled visualization of the combinations of imported cases and activity levels on the case numbers and the trade-offs required. For vaccination, a reduction factor should be applied both for likelihood of an infected case being present and a close contact getting infected.

SUBMITTER: Lim SB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8420627 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk scorecard to minimize impact of COVID-19 when reopening.

Lim Shin B SB Pung Rachael R Tan Kellie K Lang Jocelyn H S JHS Yong Dominique Z X DZX Teh Shi-Hua SH Quah Elizabeth E Sun Yinxiaohe Y Ma Stefan S Lee Vernon J M VJM

Journal of travel medicine 20211001 7

<h4>Background</h4>We present a novel approach for exiting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns using a 'risk scorecard' to prioritize activities to resume whilst allowing safe reopening.<h4>Methods</h4>We modelled cases generated in the community/week, incorporating parameters for social distancing, contact tracing and imported cases. We set thresholds for cases and analysed the effect of varying parameters. An online tool to facilitate country-specific use including the modification o ...[more]

PMID: 34318330

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Project description:PurposeTo promote nationwide dissemination and implementation of COVID-19 Risk Assessment and Safety Management Operational Guidelines, drawn up by SAMeR Task Force in ART centers in Argentina. Our objective is to prevent and mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at an institutional level, while reducing the risk of infection among both physicians and patients in the context of a critical scenario in the local and Latin American healthcare system.MethodsSAMeR Executive Committee set up a crisis committee which was made up of specialists in reproductive medicine, embryology, and healthcare management. A critical and updated review of the advances in science, documents, and recommendations released by other societies (ASRM, ESHRE, IFFS, Red LARA, societies of anesthesiologists, infectious diseases, and Occupational Safety and Health Administration-OSHA) was carried out. Likewise, there were joint meetings with the Ministry of Health of Argentina in order to draw up the guidelines. Simultaneously, ongoing medical training was carried out, thus providing added value to them, including two status surveys of the activities of the monovalent and polyvalent centers according to the country's epidemiological mapping. Four additional recommendations were made, and online training was given to healthcare workers. The aforementioned regulations were first analyzed by the healthcare providers and their practical suggestions were then added to the guidelines.ResultsThe one-off collaborative work and the actions coordinated with the National ART Program of the Ministry of Health of Argentina resulted in the development and implementation of the present COVID-19 Risk Assessment and Safety Management Operational Guidelines at a national level. SAMeR gave recommendations for the implementation of the Management Guidelines for the center reopening, providing new safety criteria against the threat of viral contagion. A new organizational culture was promoted through the awareness of all the healthcare workers and teaching responsibility. We continue working on the compliance with a new "Code of Conduct and Commitment in Healthcare" and with workplace safety measures. We helped with transforming the theoretical knowledge into practical measures for the healthcare workers in different services, with the aim to prevent, mitigate, and/or handle contingencies at the centers/services and gamete banks, in line with the actions agreed upon with the Ministry of Health.ConclusionsAs an extraordinary and uncertain event, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic helped consolidate a volunteer-based and collaborative panel of SAMeR experts who developed the COVID-19 Risk Assessment and Safety Management Operational Guidelines as a new and readily available tool for physicians, patients, and gamete banks care. Their implementation has provided specific guidelines to minimize risk for professionals in ART clinics, as well as guaranteeing patient safety.

Project description:BackgroundSignificant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities.ObjectiveWe aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties.MethodsWe developed campus-only, community-only, and campus × community epidemic differential equations and agent-based models, with inputs estimated via published and grey literature, expert opinion, and parameter search algorithms. Campus opening plans (spanning fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality over 16-week semesters were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outliers. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to inform potential effective interventions.ResultsPredicted 16-week campus and additional community exposures, infections, and mortality for the base case with no precautions (or negligible compliance) varied significantly from their medians (4- to 10-fold). Over 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean of 76 (SD 17) days, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on average on day 84 (SD 10.2 days) of the semester and with total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranging from 1-187, 13-820, and 1-21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. Reopening precautions reduced infections by 24%-26% and mortality by 36%-50% in both populations. Beyond campus and community reproductive numbers, sensitivity analysis indicated no dominant factors that interventions could primarily target to reduce the magnitude and variability in outcomes, suggesting the importance of comprehensive public health measures and surveillance.ConclusionsCommunity and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality resulting from reopening campuses are highly unpredictable regardless of precautions. Public health implications include the need for effective surveillance and flexible campus operations.

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Risk scorecard to minimize impact of COVID-19 when reopening.

Publications

Risk scorecard to minimize impact of COVID-19 when reopening.

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