Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900-2018.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Campolieti M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8477200 | biostudies-literature | 2021
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900-2018.
Infectious Disease Modelling 20210920
I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the events of high frequency (i.e., years of low mortality). I also discuss the implications of my estimates for risk management and pandemic planning. ...[more]
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