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The role of age in the spreading of COVID-19 across a social network in Bucharest.

ABSTRACT: We analyse officially procured data detailing the COVID-19 transmission in Romania's capital Bucharest between 1st August and 31st October 2020. We apply relational hyperevent models on 19,713 individuals with 13,377 infection ties to determine to what degree the disease spread is affected by age whilst controlling for other covariate and human-to-human transmission network effects. We find that positive cases are more likely to nominate alters of similar age as their sources of infection, thus providing evidence for age homophily. We also show that the relative infection risk is negatively associated with the age of peers, such that the risk of infection increases as the average age of contacts decreases. Additionally, we find that adults between the ages 35 and 44 are pivotal in the transmission of the disease to other age groups. Our results may contribute to better controlling future COVID-19 waves, and they also point to the key age groups which may be essential for vaccination given their prominent role in the transmission of the virus.

SUBMITTER: Hancean MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8499891 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The role of age in the spreading of COVID-19 across a social network in Bucharest.

Hâncean Marian-Gabriel MG Lerner Jürgen J Perc Matjaž M Ghiţă Maria Cristina MC Bunaciu David-Andrei DA Stoica Adelina Alexandra AA Mihăilă Bianca-Elena BE

Journal of complex networks 20210801 4

We analyse officially procured data detailing the COVID-19 transmission in Romania's capital Bucharest between 1st August and 31st October 2020. We apply relational hyperevent models on 19,713 individuals with 13,377 infection ties to determine to what degree the disease spread is affected by age whilst controlling for other covariate and human-to-human transmission network effects. We find that positive cases are more likely to nominate alters of similar age as their sources of infection, thus ...[more]

PMID: 34642603

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has shown a continuously increasing trend with a large variation in the number of COVID-19 deaths across countries. In response, many countries have implemented non pharmaceutical methods of intervention, such as social distancing and lockdowns. This study aims to investigate the relationship of four dimensions of social capital (community attachment, social trust, family bond, and security) and several control variables with COVID-19 deaths.MethodsWe retrieved data from open access databases and a survey. COVID-19 death-related data were collected from the website "Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University". Social capital-related data were collected from a large-scale survey that included web-based and face-to-face surveys covering 100,956 respondents across all regions/provinces/states of 37 countries in 2017. Data regarding population density, number of hospital beds, and population aged 65 or older were retrieved from the World Development Indicators (WDIs). Data on country lockdowns were obtained from the website "National responses to the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic". Linear regressions were applied to identify the relationship between social capital and COVID-19 deaths.ResultsWe found that COVID-19 deaths were associated with social capital both positively and negatively. Community attachment and social trust were associated with more COVID-19 deaths, and family bond and security were associated with fewer deaths. COVID-19 deaths were positively associated with population density, ageing population, and interactions between four dimensions of social capital-related factors and the ageing population. Furthermore, the number of hospital beds and early lockdown policy were negatively associated with COVID-19 deaths.ConclusionsThe results indicate that the role of social capital in dynamically evolving threats, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, is not always negative or positive. Therefore, people's behaviour should be changed to support countries' response to the COVID-19 threat.

Dataset Information

The role of age in the spreading of COVID-19 across a social network in Bucharest.

Publications

The role of age in the spreading of COVID-19 across a social network in Bucharest.

Similar Datasets

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