Insights from modelling malaria vaccines for policy decisions: the focus on RTS,S.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Galactionova K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8600337 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Insights from modelling malaria vaccines for policy decisions: the focus on RTS,S.
Galactionova Katya K Smith Thomas A TA Penny Melissa A MA
Malaria journal 20211118 1
Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform decisions throughout product development pathways from pre-clinical studies to country implementation of novel health interventions. This review illustrates the utility of simulation approaches by reviewing the literature on malaria vaccine modelling, with a focus on its link to the development of policy guidance for the first licensed product, RTS,S/AS01. The main contributions of modelling studies have been in inferring the mechanism of actio ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe target delivery channel of RTS,S candidate malaria vaccines in malaria-endemic countries in Africa is the World Health Organisation Expanded Program on Immunization. As an Adjuvant System, age de-escalation and schedule selection step, this study assessed 3 schedules of RTS,S/AS01(E) and RTS,S/AS02(D) in infants and young children 5-17 months of age in Ghana.MethodologyA Phase II, partially-blind randomized controlled study (blind to vaccine, not to schedule), of 19 months duration was conducted in two (2) centres in Ghana between August 2006 and May 2008. Subjects were allocated randomly (1:1:1:1:1:1) to one of six study groups at each study site, each defining which vaccine should be given and by which schedule (0,1-, 0,1,2- or 0,1,7-months). For the 0,1,2-month schedule participants received RTS,S/AS01(E) or rabies vaccine at one center and RTS,S/AS01(E) or RTS,S/AS02(D) at the other. For the other schedules at both study sites, they received RTS,S/AS01(E) or RTS,S/AS02(D). The primary outcome measure was the occurrence of serious adverse events until 10 months post dose 1.ResultsThe number of serious adverse events reported across groups was balanced. One child had a simple febrile convulsion, which evolved favourably without sequelae, considered to be related to RTS,S/AS01(E) vaccination. Low grade reactions occurred slightly more frequently in recipients of RTS,S/AS than rabies vaccines; grade 3 reactions were infrequent. Less local reactogenicity occurred with RTS,S/AS01(E) than RTS,S/AS02(D). Both candidate vaccines were highly immunogenic for anti-circumsporozoite and anti-Hepatitis B Virus surface antigen antibodies. Recipients of RTS,S/AS01(E) compared to RTS,S/AS02(D) had higher peak anti-circumsporozoite antibody responses for all 3 schedules. Three dose schedules were more immunogenic than 2 dose schedules. Area under the curve analyses for anti-circumsporozoite antibodies were comparable between the 0,1,2- and 0,1,7-month RTS,S/AS01(E) schedules.ConclusionsBoth candidate malaria vaccines were well tolerated. Anti-circumsporozoite responses were greater with RTS,S/AS01(E) than RTS,S/AS02(D) and when 3 rather than 2 doses were given. This study supports the selection of RTS,S/AS01(E) and a 3 dose schedule for further development in children and infants.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT00360230.
| S-EPMC2750750 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This phase II, randomized, double-blind study evaluated the immunogenicity of RTS,S vaccines containing Adjuvant System AS01 or AS02 as compared with non-adjuvanted RTS,S in healthy, malaria-naïve adults (NCT00443131). Thirty-six subjects were randomized (1:1:1) to receive RTS,S/AS01, RTS,S/AS02, or RTS,S/saline at months 0, 1, and 2. Antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite (CS) and hepatitis B surface (HBs) antigens were assessed and cell-mediated immune responses evaluated by flow cytometry using intracellular cytokine staining on peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Anti-CS antibody avidity was also characterized. Safety and reactogenicity after each vaccine dose were monitored. One month after the third vaccine dose, RTS,S/AS01 (160.3 EU/mL [95%CI: 114.1-225.4]) and RTS,S/AS02 (77.4 EU/mL (95%CI: 47.3-126.7)) recipients had significantly higher anti-CS antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) than recipients of RTS,S/saline (12.2 EU/mL (95%CI: 4.8-30.7); P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0011, respectively). The anti-CS antibody GMT was significantly higher with RTS,S/AS01 than with RTS,S/AS02 (P = 0.0135). Anti-CS antibody avidity was in the same range in all groups. CS- and HBs-specific CD4(+) T cell responses were greater for both RTS,S/AS groups than for the RTS,S/saline group. Reactogenicity was in general higher for RTS,S/AS compared with RTS,S/saline. Most grade 3 solicited adverse events (AEs) were of short duration and grade 3 solicited general AEs were infrequent in the 3 groups. No serious adverse events were reported. In conclusion, in comparison with non-adjuvanted RTS,S, both RTS,S/AS vaccines exhibited better CS-specific immune responses. The anti-CS antibody response was significantly higher with RTS,S/AS01 than with RTS,S/AS02. The adjuvanted vaccines had acceptable safety profiles.
| S-EPMC4896765 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The Plasmodium falciparum pre-erythrocytic stage candidate vaccine RTS,S is being developed for protection of young children against malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. RTS,S formulated with the liposome based adjuvant AS01(E) or the oil-in-water based adjuvant AS02(D) induces P. falciparum circumsporozoite (CSP) antigen-specific antibody and T cell responses which have been associated with protection in the experimental malaria challenge model in adults. METHODS:This study was designed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity induced over a 19 month period by three vaccination schedules (0,1-, 0,1,2- and 0,1,7-month) of RTS,S/AS01(E) and RTS,S/AS02(D) in children aged 5-17 months in two research centers in Ghana. Control Rabies vaccine using the 0,1,2-month schedule was used in one of two study sites. RESULTS:Whole blood antigen stimulation followed by intra-cellular cytokine staining showed RTS,S/AS01(E) induced CSP specific CD4 T cells producing IL-2, TNF-?, and IFN-?. Higher T cell responses were induced by a 0,1,7-month immunization schedule as compared with a 0,1- or 0,1,2-month schedule. RTS,S/AS01(E) induced higher CD4 T cell responses as compared to RTS,S/AS02(D) when given on a 0,1,7-month schedule. CONCLUSIONS:These findings support further Phase III evaluation of RTS,S/AS01(E). The role of immune effectors and immunization schedules on vaccine protection are currently under evaluation. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00360230.
| S-EPMC3083397 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAdding malaria vaccination to existing interventions could help to reduce the health burden due to malaria. This study modelled the potential public health impact of the RTS,S candidate malaria vaccine in 42 malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsAn individual-based Markov cohort model was constructed with three categories of malaria transmission intensity and six successive malaria immunity levels. The cycle time was 5 days. Vaccination was assumed to reduce the risk of infection, with no other effects. Vaccine efficacy was assumed to wane exponentially over time. Malaria incidence and vaccine efficacy data were taken from a Phase III trial of the RTS,S vaccine with 18 months of follow-up (NCT00866619). The model was calibrated to reproduce the malaria incidence in the control arm of the trial in each transmission category and published age distribution data. Individual-level heterogeneity in malaria exposure and vaccine protection was accounted for. Parameter uncertainty and variability were captured by using stochastic model transitions. The model followed a cohort from birth to 10 years of age without malaria vaccination, or with RTS,S malaria vaccination administered at age 6, 10 and 14 weeks or at age 6, 7-and-a-half and 9 months. Median and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the number of clinical malaria cases, severe cases, malaria hospitalizations and malaria deaths expected to be averted by each vaccination strategy. Univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the values of key input parameters.ResultsVaccination assuming the coverage of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) at age 6, 10 and 14 weeks is estimated to avert over five million clinical malaria cases, 119,000 severe malaria cases, 98,600 malaria hospitalizations and 31,000 malaria deaths in the 42 countries over the 10-year period. Vaccination at age 6, 7-and-a-half and 9 months with 75% of DTP3 coverage is estimated to avert almost 12.5 million clinical malaria cases, 250,000 severe malaria cases, 208,000 malaria hospitalizations and 65,400 malaria deaths in the 42 countries. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that for both vaccination strategies, the parameters with the largest impact on the malaria mortality estimates were waning of vaccine efficacy and malaria case-fatality rate.ConclusionsAddition of RTS,S malaria vaccination to existing malaria interventions is estimated to reduce substantially the incidence of clinical malaria, severe malaria, malaria hospitalizations and malaria deaths across 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
| S-EPMC4690265 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5-17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0-5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels-assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%-we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8-6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000-35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0-4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000-23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2-10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000-61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000-43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7-6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000-30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7-15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000-82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000-38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.
| S-EPMC7703928 | biostudies-literature
Project description:New strategies are needed to reduce the incidence of malaria, and promising approaches include vaccines targeting the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). To improve upon the malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, it is essential to standardize preclinical assays to measure the potency of next-generation vaccines against this benchmark. We focus on RTS,S/AS01-induced antibody responses and functional activity in conjunction with robust statistical analyses. Transgenic Plasmodium berghei sporozoites containing full-length P. falciparum CSP (tgPb-PfCSP) allow two assessments of efficacy: quantitative reduction in liver infection following intravenous challenge, and sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Two or three doses of RTS,S/AS01 were given intramuscularly at 3-week intervals, with challenge 2-weeks after the last vaccination. Minimal inter- and intra-assay variability indicates the reproducibility of the methods. Importantly, the range of this model is suitable for screening more potent vaccines. Levels of induced anti-CSP antibody 2A10 equivalency were also associated with activity: 105 μg/mL (95% CI: 68.8, 141) reduced liver infection by 50%, whereas 285 μg/mL (95% CI: 166, 404) is required for 50% sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Additionally, the liver burden model was able to differentiate between protected and non-protected human plasma samples from a controlled human malaria infection study, supporting these models' relevance and predictive capability. Comparison in animal models of CSP-based vaccine candidates to RTS,S/AS01 is now possible under well controlled conditions. Assessment of the quality of induced antibodies, likely a determinant of durability of protection in humans, should be possible using these methods.
| S-EPMC10858969 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Identification of gene signatures that are associated with protection in RTS,S malaria vaccination study
2020-04-21 | GSE102288 | GEO
Project description:Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres have been established as an essential indicator for evaluating the immunogenicity and protective capacity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine. However, a new delayed-fractional dose regime of the vaccine was recently shown to increase vaccine efficacy, from 62.5% (95% CI 29.4-80.1%) under the original dosing schedule to 86.7% (95% CI, 66.8-94.6%) without a corresponding increase in antibody titres. Here we reanalyse the antibody data from this challenge trial to determine whether IgG avidity may help to explain efficacy better than IgG titre alone by adapting a within-host mathematical model of sporozoite inoculation. We demonstrate that a model incorporating titre and avidity provides a substantially better fit to the data than titre alone. These results also suggest that in individuals with a high antibody titre response that also show high avidity (both metrics in the top tercile of observed values) delayed-fractional vaccination provided near perfect protection upon first challenge (98.2% [95% Credible Interval 91.6-99.7%]). This finding suggests that the quality of the vaccine induced antibody response is likely to be an important determinant in the development of highly efficacious pre-erythrocytic vaccines against malaria.
| S-EPMC7607256 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine for Plasmodium falciparum malaria demonstrated moderate efficacy in 5-17-month-old children in phase 3 trials, and from 2018, the vaccine will be evaluated through a large-scale pilot implementation program. Work is ongoing to optimise this vaccine, with higher efficacy for a different schedule demonstrated in a phase 2a challenge study. The objective of our study was to investigate the population-level impact of a modified RTS,S/AS01 schedule and dose amount in order to inform the target product profile for a second-generation malaria vaccine.MethodsWe used a mathematical modelling approach as the basis for our study. We simulated the changing anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre following vaccination and related the titre to vaccine efficacy. We then implemented this efficacy profile within an individual-based model of malaria transmission. We compared initial efficacy, duration and dose timing, and evaluated the potential public health impact of a modified vaccine in children aged 5-17 months, measuring clinical cases averted in children younger than 5 years.ResultsIn the first decade of delivery, initial efficacy was associated with a higher reduction in childhood clinical cases compared to vaccine duration. This effect was more pronounced in high transmission settings and was due to the efficacy benefit occurring in younger ages where disease burden is highest. However, the low initial efficacy and long duration schedule averted more cases across all age cohorts if a longer time horizon was considered. We observed an age-shifting effect due to the changing immunological profile in higher transmission settings, in scenarios where initial efficacy was higher, and the fourth dose administered earlier.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that, for an imperfect childhood malaria vaccine with suboptimal efficacy, it may be advantageous to prioritise initial efficacy over duration. We predict that a modified vaccine could outperform the current RTS,S/AS01, although fourth dose timing will affect the age group that derives the greatest benefit. Further, the outcome measure and timeframe over which a vaccine is assessed are important when prioritising vaccine elements. This study provides insight into the most important characteristics of a malaria vaccine for at-risk groups and shows how distinct vaccine properties translate to public health outcomes. These findings may be used to prioritise target product profile elements for second-generation childhood malaria vaccines.
| S-EPMC6044028 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mathematical modelling has played a pivotal role in understanding the epidemiology of and guiding public health responses to the ongoing coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we review the role of epidemiological models in understanding evolving epidemic characteristics, including the effects of vaccination and Variants of Concern (VoC). We highlight ways in which models continue to provide important insights, including (1) calculating the herd immunity threshold and evaluating its limitations; (2) verifying that nascent vaccines can prevent severe disease, infection, and transmission but may be less efficacious against VoC; (3) determining optimal vaccine allocation strategies under efficacy and supply constraints; and (4) determining that VoC are more transmissible and lethal than previously circulating strains, and that immune escape may jeopardize vaccine-induced herd immunity. Finally, we explore how models can help us anticipate and prepare for future stages of COVID-19 epidemiology (and that of other diseases) through forecasts and scenario projections, given current uncertainties and data limitations.
| S-EPMC8294600 | biostudies-literature