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Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena.


ABSTRACT: Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we discuss the main differences of this approach to classical numerical modeling and highlight several cases where the network approach substantially improved the prediction of high-impact phenomena: 1) El Niño events, 2) droughts in the central Amazon, 3) extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes, 4) the Indian summer monsoon, and 5) extreme stratospheric polar vortex states that influence the occurrence of wintertime cold spells in northern Eurasia. In this perspective, we argue that network-based approaches can gainfully complement numerical modeling.

SUBMITTER: Ludescher J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8617481 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena.

Ludescher Josef J   Martin Maria M   Boers Niklas N   Bunde Armin A   Ciemer Catrin C   Fan Jingfang J   Havlin Shlomo S   Kretschmer Marlene M   Kurths Jürgen J   Runge Jakob J   Stolbova Veronika V   Surovyatkina Elena E   Schellnhuber Hans Joachim HJ  

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20211101 47


Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we discuss the main differences of this approach to classical numerical modeling and highlight several cases where the network approach substantially improved the prediction of high-impact phenomena: 1) El Niño events, 2) droughts in the central Amazon, 3) extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes, 4) the Indian summer mo  ...[more]

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