Dataset Information

Mortality Risk from PM2.5: A Comparison of Modeling Approaches to Identify Disparities across Racial/Ethnic Groups in Policy Outcomes.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Regulatory analyses of air pollution policies require the use of concentration-response functions and underlying health data to estimate the mortality and morbidity effects, as well as the resulting benefits, associated with policy-related changes in fine particulate matter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5)]. Common practice by U.S. federal agencies involves using underlying health data and concentration-response functions that are not differentiated by racial/ethnic group.

Objectives

We aim to explore the policy implications of using race/ethnicity-specific concentration-response functions and mortality data in comparison to standard approaches when estimating the impact of air pollution on non-White racial/ethnic subgroups.

Methods

Using new estimates from the epidemiological literature on race/ethnicity-specific concentration-response functions paired with race/ethnicity-specific mortality rates, we estimated the mortality impacts of air pollution from all sources from a uniform increase in concentrations and from the regulations imposed by the Mercury Air Toxics Standards.

Results

Use of race/ethnicity-specific information increased PM2.5-related premature mortality estimates in older populations by 9% and among older Black Americans by 150% for all-source pollution exposure. Under a uniform degradation of air quality and race/ethnicity-specific information, older Black Americans were found to have approximately 3 times higher mortality relative to White Americans, which is obscured under a non-race/ethnicity-specific modeling approach. Standard approaches of using non-racial/ethnic specific information underestimate the benefits of the Mercury Air Toxics Standards to older Black Americans by almost 60% and overestimate the benefits to older White Americans by 14% relative to using a race/ethnicity-specific modeling approach.

Discussion

Policy analyses incorporating race/ethnicity-specific concentration-response functions and mortality data relative to nondifferentiated inputs underestimate the overall magnitude of PM2.5 mortality burden and the disparity in impacts on older Black American populations. Based on our results, we recommend that the best available race/ethnicity-specific inputs are used in regulatory assessments to understand and reduce environmental injustices. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9001.

SUBMITTER: Spiller E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8653772 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Mortality Risk from PM2.5: A Comparison of Modeling Approaches to Identify Disparities across Racial/Ethnic Groups in Policy Outcomes.

Spiller Elisheba E Proville Jeremy J Roy Ananya A Muller Nicholas Z NZ

Environmental health perspectives 20211215 12

<h4>Background</h4>Regulatory analyses of air pollution policies require the use of concentration-response functions and underlying health data to estimate the mortality and morbidity effects, as well as the resulting benefits, associated with policy-related changes in fine particulate matter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5)]. Common practice by U.S. federal agencies involves using underlying health data and concentration-response functions that are not differentiated by racial/ethnic group.<h4>Objectives</h4>We ...[more]

PMID: 34878311

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Project description:BackgroundAccurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities.Methods and resultsTo forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 national population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first on the basis of constant age, period, and cohort effects at 2012 values, as is most commonly done (conventional), and then with the use of more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in age, period, and cohort effects (trend based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by ≈18% (67 000 additional coronary deaths per year) and 50% (64 000 additional stroke deaths per year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would decrease by 2030 by ≈27% (79 000 fewer deaths per year) and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths per year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths but not coronary deaths.ConclusionsAfter prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts are accounted for, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, whereas stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke but not coronary deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These age, period, and cohort approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates.

Project description:Purpose: Equal-access health care systems such as the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) reduce financial and nonfinancial barriers to care. It is unknown if such systems mitigate racial/ethnic mortality disparities, such as those well documented in the broader U.S. population. We examined racial/ethnic mortality disparities among VHA health care users, and compared racial/ethnic disparities in VHA and U.S. general populations. Methods: Linking VHA records for an October 2008 to September 2009 national VHA user cohort, and National Death Index records, we assessed all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular-related mortality through December 2011. We calculated age-, sex-, and comorbidity-adjusted mortality hazard ratios. We computed sex-stratified, age-standardized mortality risk ratios for VHA and U.S. populations, then compared racial/ethnic disparities between the populations. Results: Among VHA users, American Indian/Alaskan Natives (AI/ANs) had higher adjusted all-cause mortality, whereas non-Hispanic Blacks had higher cause-specific mortality versus non-Hispanic Whites. Asians, Hispanics, and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islanders had similar, or lower all-cause and cause-specific mortality versus non-Hispanic Whites. Mortality disparities were evident in non-Hispanic-Black men compared with non-Hispanic White men in both VHA and U.S. populations for all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer (cause-specific) mortality, but disparities were smaller in VHA. VHA non-Hispanic Black women did not experience the all-cause and cause-specific mortality disparity present for U.S. non-Hispanic Black women. Disparities in all-cause and cancer mortality existed in VHA but not in U.S. population AI/AN men. Conclusion: Patterns in racial/ethnic disparities differed between VHA and U.S. populations, with fewer disparities within VHAs equal-access system. Equal-access health care may partially address racial/ethnic mortality disparities, but other nonhealth care factors should also be explored.

Dataset Information

Mortality Risk from PM2.5: A Comparison of Modeling Approaches to Identify Disparities across Racial/Ethnic Groups in Policy Outcomes.

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Publications

Mortality Risk from PM2.5: A Comparison of Modeling Approaches to Identify Disparities across Racial/Ethnic Groups in Policy Outcomes.

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