Dataset Information

Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations.

Methods

The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities.

Results

The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations.

Conclusions

In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.

SUBMITTER: Al-Zoughool M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8742165 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

Al-Zoughool Mustafa M Oraby Tamer T Vainio Harri H Gasana Janvier J Longenecker Joseph J Al Ali Walid W AlSeaidan Mohammad M Elsaadany Susie S Tyshenko Michael G MG

Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique 20220108 1

<h4>Background</h4>Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction ...[more]

PMID: 34998438

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Project description:ImportanceUnderstanding the interplay between trajectories of sleep duration, sleep onset timing, and glycemic dynamics is crucial for improving preventive strategies against diabetes and related metabolic diseases.ObjectiveTo examine the associations of sleep duration and onset timing trajectories with continuous glucose monitoring (CGM)-derived glycemic metrics in adults.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed data collected from January 2014 to December 2023 in the Guangzhou Nutrition and Health Study, a prospective cohort in Guangdong province, China, among participants aged 46 to 83. Participants who had repeated sleep assessments at several study visits and were equipped with CGM devices at the last visit were included. Data analyses were conducted between January and June 2024.ExposuresThe trajectories of sleep duration and onset timing were constructed using self-report sleep duration and sleep onset timing, recorded at multiple study visit points.Main outcomes and measuresMeasurements of glycemic variability and glycemic control were collected using a masked CGM device worn by patients for 14 consecutive days. Huber robust regression models were used to assess the associations between sleep trajectories and CGM-derived metrics.ResultsIn this study of 1156 participants (mean [SD] age, 63.0 [5.1] years, 816 [70.6%] women), we identified 4 distinct sleep duration trajectory groups: severe inadequate, moderate inadequate, mild inadequate, and adequate. Severe sleep inadequacy was associated with an increment of glycemic variability indicators: 2.87% (95% CI, 1.23%-4.50%) for coefficient of variation and 0.06 (95% CI, 0.02-0.09) mmol/L for mean of daily differences. We found 2 trajectories of sleep onset timing: persistent early and persistent late groups. Late sleep onset was associated with larger coefficient of variation (β = 1.18%; 95% CI, 0.36%-2.01%) and mean of daily differences (β = 0.02 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.01-0.04 mmol/L). Inappropriate sleep duration and timing trajectories in combination were associated with greater glycemic variability.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of middle-aged and older participants, persistent inadequate sleep duration and late sleep onset, whether alone or in combination, were associated with greater glycemic variability. These findings emphasize the importance of considering both sleep duration and timing for optimizing glycemic control in the general population.

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Dataset Information

Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

Similar Datasets

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