Dataset Information

Model-Estimated Association Between Simulated US Elementary School-Related SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Mitigation Interventions, and Vaccine Coverage Across Local Incidence Levels.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

With recent surges in COVID-19 incidence and vaccine authorization for children aged 5 to 11 years, elementary schools face decisions about requirements for masking and other mitigation measures. These decisions require explicit determination of community objectives (eg, acceptable risk level for in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission) and quantitative estimates of the consequences of changing mitigation measures.

Objective

To estimate the association between adding or removing in-school mitigation measures (eg, masks) and COVID-19 outcomes within an elementary school community at varying student vaccination and local incidence rates.

Design, setting, and participants

This decision analytic model used an agent-based model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a school community, with a simulated population of students, teachers and staff, and their household members (ie, immediate school community). Transmission was evaluated for a range of observed local COVID-19 incidence (0-50 cases per 100 000 residents per day, assuming 33% of all infections detected). The population used in the model reflected the mean size of a US elementary school, including 638 students and 60 educators and staff members in 6 grades with 5 classes per grade.

Exposures

Variant infectiousness (representing wild-type virus, Alpha variant, and Delta variant), mitigation effectiveness (0%-100% reduction in the in-school secondary attack rate, representing increasingly intensive combinations of mitigations including masking and ventilation), and student vaccination levels were varied.

Main outcomes and measures

The main outcomes were (1) probability of at least 1 in-school transmission per month and (2) mean increase in total infections per month among the immediate school community associated with a reduction in mitigation; multiple decision thresholds were estimated for objectives associated with each outcome. Sensitivity analyses on adult vaccination uptake, vaccination effectiveness, and testing approaches (for selected scenarios) were conducted.

Results

With student vaccination coverage of 70% or less and moderate assumptions about mitigation effectiveness (eg, masking), mitigation could only be reduced when local case incidence was 14 or fewer cases per 100 000 residents per day to keep the mean additional cases associated with reducing mitigation to 5 or fewer cases per month. To keep the probability of any in-school transmission to less than 50% per month, the local case incidence would have to be 4 or fewer cases per 100 000 residents per day.

Conclusions and relevance

In this study, in-school mitigation measures (eg, masks) and student vaccinations were associated with substantial reductions in transmissions and infections, but the level of reduction varied across local incidence. These findings underscore the potential role for responsive plans that deploy mitigation strategies based on local COVID-19 incidence, vaccine uptake, and explicit consideration of community objectives.

SUBMITTER: Giardina J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8845023 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Model-Estimated Association Between Simulated US Elementary School-Related SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Mitigation Interventions, and Vaccine Coverage Across Local Incidence Levels.

Giardina John J Bilinski Alyssa A Fitzpatrick Meagan C MC Kendall Emily A EA Linas Benjamin P BP Salomon Joshua J Ciaranello Andrea L AL

JAMA network open 20220201 2

<h4>Importance</h4>With recent surges in COVID-19 incidence and vaccine authorization for children aged 5 to 11 years, elementary schools face decisions about requirements for masking and other mitigation measures. These decisions require explicit determination of community objectives (eg, acceptable risk level for in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission) and quantitative estimates of the consequences of changing mitigation measures.<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the association between adding or remov ...[more]

PMID: 35157056

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Project description:While CDC guidance for K-12 schools recommends indoor masking regardless of vaccination status, final decisions about masking in schools will be made at the local and state level. The impact of the removal of mask restrictions, however, on COVID-19 outcomes for elementary students, educators/staff, and their households is not well known. We used a previously published agent-based dynamic transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 in K-12 schools to simulate an elementary school with 638 students across 12 scenarios: combinations of three viral infectiousness levels (reflecting wild-type virus, alpha variant, and delta variant) and four student vaccination levels (0%, 25%, 50% and 70% coverage). For each scenario, we varied observed community COVID-19 incidence (0 to 50 cases/100,000 people/day) and mitigation effectiveness (0-100% reduction to in-school secondary attack rate), and evaluated two outcomes over a 30 day period: (1) the probability of at least one in-school transmission, and (2) average increase in total infections among students, educators/staff, and their household members associated with moving from more to less intensive mitigation measures. Over 30 days in the simulated elementary school, the probability of at least one in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the number of estimated additional infections in the immediate school community associated with changes in mitigation measures varied widely. In one scenario with the delta variant and no student vaccination, assuming that baseline mitigation measures of simple ventilation and handwashing reduce the secondary attack rate by 40%, if decision-makers seek to keep the monthly probability of an in-school transmission below 50%, additional mitigation (e.g., masking) would need to be added at a community incidence of approximately 2/100,000/day. Once students are vaccinated, thresholds shift substantially higher. The interpretation of model results should be limited by the uncertainty in many of the parameters, including the effectiveness of individual mitigation interventions and vaccine efficacy against the delta variant, and the limited scope of the model beyond the school community. Additionally, the assumed case detection rate (33% of cases detected) may be too high in areas with decreased testing capacity. Despite the assumption of high adult vaccination, the risks of both in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and resulting infections among students, educators/staff, and their household members remain high when the delta variant predominates and students are unvaccinated. Mitigation measures or vaccinations for students can substantially reduce these risks. These findings underscore the potential role for responsive plans, where mitigation is deployed based on local COVID-19 incidence and vaccine uptake.

Project description:In the agricultural setting, core global food safety elements, such as hand hygiene and worker furlough, should reduce the risk of norovirus contamination on fresh produce. However, the effect of these practices has not been characterized. Using a quantitative microbial risk model, we evaluated the individual and combined effect of farm-based hand hygiene and worker furlough practices on the maximum risk of norovirus infection from three produce commodities (open leaf lettuce, vine tomatoes, and raspberries). Specifically, we tested two scenarios where a harvester's and packer's norovirus infection status was: 1) assumed positive; or 2) assigned based on community norovirus prevalence estimates. In the first scenario with a norovirus-positive harvester and packer, none of the individual interventions modeled reduced produce contamination to below the norovirus infectious dose. However, combined interventions, particularly high handwashing compliance (100%) and efficacy (6 log10 virus removal achieved using soap and water for 30 s), reduced produce contamination to <1-82 residual virus. Translating produce contamination to maximum consumer infection risk, 100% handwashing with a 5 log10 virus removal was necessary to achieve an infection risk below the threshold of 0.032 infections per consumption event. When community-based norovirus prevalence estimates were applied to the harvester and packer, the single interventions of 100% handwashing with 3 log10 virus removal (average 0.02 infection risk per consumption event) or furlough of the packer (average 0.03 infection risk per consumption event) reduced maximum infection risk to below the 0.032 threshold for all commodities. Bundled interventions (worker furlough, 100% glove compliance, and 100% handwashing with 1-log10 virus reduction) resulted in a maximum risk of 0.02 per consumption event across all commodities. These results advance the evidence-base for global produce safety standards as effective norovirus contamination and risk mitigation strategies.

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Project description:ImportanceIn addition to illness, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to historic educational disruptions. In March 2021, the federal government allocated $10 billion for COVID-19 testing in US schools.ObjectiveCosts and benefits of COVID-19 testing strategies were evaluated in the context of full-time, in-person kindergarten through eighth grade (K-8) education at different community incidence levels.Design, setting, and participantsAn updated version of a previously published agent-based network model was used to simulate transmission in elementary and middle school communities in the United States. Assuming dominance of the delta SARS-CoV-2 variant, the model simulated an elementary school (638 students in grades K-5, 60 staff) and middle school (460 students grades 6-8, 51 staff).ExposuresMultiple strategies for testing students and faculty/staff, including expanded diagnostic testing (test to stay) designed to avoid symptom-based isolation and contact quarantine, screening (routinely testing asymptomatic individuals to identify infections and contain transmission), and surveillance (testing a random sample of students to identify undetected transmission and trigger additional investigation or interventions).Main outcomes and measuresProjections included 30-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, proportion of cases detected, proportion of planned and unplanned days out of school, cost of testing programs, and childcare costs associated with different strategies. For screening policies, the cost per SARS-CoV-2 infection averted in students and staff was estimated, and for surveillance, the probability of correctly or falsely triggering an outbreak response was estimated at different incidence and attack rates.ResultsCompared with quarantine policies, test-to-stay policies are associated with similar model-projected transmission, with a mean of less than 0.25 student days per month of quarantine or isolation. Weekly universal screening is associated with approximately 50% less in-school transmission at one-seventh to one-half the societal cost of hybrid or remote schooling. The cost per infection averted in students and staff by weekly screening is lowest for schools with less vaccination, fewer other mitigation measures, and higher levels of community transmission. In settings where local student incidence is unknown or rapidly changing, surveillance testing may detect moderate to large in-school outbreaks with fewer resources compared with schoolwide screening.Conclusions and relevanceIn this modeling study of a simulated population of primary school students and simulated transmission of COVID-19, test-to-stay policies and/or screening tests facilitated consistent in-person school attendance with low transmission risk across a range of community incidence. Surveillance was a useful reduced-cost option for detecting outbreaks and identifying school environments that would benefit from increased mitigation.

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Dataset Information

Model-Estimated Association Between Simulated US Elementary School-Related SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Mitigation Interventions, and Vaccine Coverage Across Local Incidence Levels.

Importance

Objective

Design, setting, and participants

Exposures

Main outcomes and measures

Results

Conclusions and relevance

Publications

Model-Estimated Association Between Simulated US Elementary School-Related SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Mitigation Interventions, and Vaccine Coverage Across Local Incidence Levels.

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