Dataset Information

Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 in a Contemporary UK Type 2 Diabetes Trial Cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) developed using 30-year (1977-2007) data from the UKPDS is widely used for health outcomes' projections and economic evaluations of therapies for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, its reliability for contemporary UK T2D populations is unclear. We assessed the performance of version 2 of the model (UKPDS-OM2) using data from A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND), which followed participants with diabetes in the UK between 2005 and 2017.

Methods

The UKPDS-OM2 was used to predict the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), other ischemic heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death, and other death among the 14 569 participants with T2D in ASCEND, all without previous CV disease at study entry. Calibration (comparison of predicted and observed year-on-year cumulative incidence over 10 years) and discrimination (c-statistics) of the model were assessed for each endpoint. The percentage error in event rates at year 7 (mean duration of follow up) was used to quantify model bias.

Results

The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted MI, stroke, CV death, and other death over the 10-year follow-up period (by 149%, 42%, 269%, and 52%, respectively, at year 7). Discrimination of the model for MI and other ischemic heart disease (c-statistics 0.58 and 0.60, respectively) was poorer than that for other outcomes (c-statistics ranging from 0.66 to 0.72).

Conclusions

The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted risks of key CV outcomes and death in people with T2D in ASCEND. Appropriate adjustments or a new model may be required for assessments of long-term effects of treatments in contemporary T2D cohorts.

SUBMITTER: Keng MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8881217 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 in a Contemporary UK Type 2 Diabetes Trial Cohort.

Keng Mi Jun MJ Leal Jose J Mafham Marion M Bowman Louise L Armitage Jane J Mihaylova Borislava B

Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research 20211027 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>The UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) developed using 30-year (1977-2007) data from the UKPDS is widely used for health outcomes' projections and economic evaluations of therapies for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, its reliability for contemporary UK T2D populations is unclear. We assessed the performance of version 2 of the model (UKPDS-OM2) using data from A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND), which followed ...[more]

PMID: 35227456

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Dataset Information

Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 in a Contemporary UK Type 2 Diabetes Trial Cohort.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 in a Contemporary UK Type 2 Diabetes Trial Cohort.

Similar Datasets

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