Dataset Information

Association of China's two-child policy with changes in number of births and birth defects rate, 2008-2017.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In October 2015, China's one-child policy was universally replaced by a so-called two-child policy. This study investigated the association between the enactment of the new policy and changes in the number of births, and health-related birth outcomes.

Methods

We used difference-in-difference model to analyse the birth record data in Pudong New Area, Shanghai.The design is descriptive before-and-after comparative study.

Results

The data covered three policy periods: the one-child policy period (January 2008 to November 2014); the partial two-child policy period (December 2014 to June 2016); the universal two-child policy period (July 2016 to December 2017). There was an estimate of 7656 additional births during the 18 months of the implementation of the universal two-child policy. The trend of monthly percentage of births to mothers aged ≥35 increased by 0.24 percentage points (95% confidence interval 0.19 to 0.28, p < 0.001) during the same period. Being a baby boy, preterm birth, low birth weight, parents with lower educational attainment, and assisted delivery were associated with a higher risk of birth defects.

Conclusions

The universal two-child policy was associated with an increase in the number of births and maternal age. Preterm birth, low birth weight, and assisted delivery were associated with a higher risk of birth defects, which suggested that these infants needed additional attention in the future.

SUBMITTER: Chen H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8895506 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Association of China's two-child policy with changes in number of births and birth defects rate, 2008-2017.

Chen Hanyi H Wei Ting T Wang Haiyin H Zhou Yi Y Chen Hua H Sun Lianghong L Xiao Shaotan S Ma Wuren W Zhao Huijuan H Chen Guanghua G Liang Xinlei X Zhang Donglan D Zheng Weiwei W Zhou Yixin Y Yu Zhangsheng Z

BMC public health 20220304 1

<h4>Background</h4>In October 2015, China's one-child policy was universally replaced by a so-called two-child policy. This study investigated the association between the enactment of the new policy and changes in the number of births, and health-related birth outcomes.<h4>Methods</h4>We used difference-in-difference model to analyse the birth record data in Pudong New Area, Shanghai.The design is descriptive before-and-after comparative study.<h4>Results</h4>The data covered three policy period ...[more]

PMID: 35246096

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Project description:ObjectiveTo measure the association of China's universal two child policy, announced in October 2015, with changes in births and health related birth characteristics.DesignNational, descriptive before-and-after comparative study.SettingEvery county in 28 of 31 provinces of mainland China.ParticipantsBirths included in two national databases: 67 786 749 births from county level monthly aggregated data between January 2014 and December 2017; and 31 786 279 deliveries from individual level delivery information records between January 2015 and December 2017.Main outcome measuresMonthly mean number of births and mean proportion of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over, preterm deliveries, and caesarean deliveries.ResultsThe study had two phases: the baseline period (up to and including June 2016, nine months after the policy announcement) and the effective period (from July 2016 to December 2017). The estimated number of additional births attributable to the new policy between July 2016 and December 2017 was 5.40 million (95% confidence interval 4.34 to 6.46). The monthly mean percentage of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over increased by 9.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 11.7) and 5.8 percentage points (5.2 to 6.4), respectively. This increase in older mothers, however, was not associated with a concurrent increase in the overall rate of preterm birth. The monthly mean caesarean delivery rate among multiparous mothers increased by 1.2 percentage points (0.8 to 1.6) from 39.7% to 40.9%, and decreased by 3.0 percentage points (-3.5 to -2.5) among nulliparous mothers from 39.6% to 36.6%.ConclusionsSince its announcement in October 2015, the universal two child policy has been associated with a rise in births in China and with changes in health related birth characteristics: women giving birth have been more likely to be multiparous, and more likely to be aged 35 and over. No evidence of concurrent worsening outcomes (that is, premature births) was seen.

Project description:Aging populations, along with low fertility rates, have become a pervasive world-wide problem. To address this challenge, China issued a universal 3-child policy on May 31, 2021. However, little is known regarding the intentions of childbearing-aged Chinese for a third child. The purpose of this study was to assess the fertility intentions of the Chinese as related to this third-child policy and identify risk factors for third-child refusal. In this cross-sectional study, a total of 2129 Chinese childbearing-aged participants were recruited nationwide from June 15 to July 22, 2021. Each participant was interviewed using questionnaires to establish their sociodemographic variables, psychosocial factors as related to third-child intentions, and reasons for third-child refusal. Finally, 2115 responses (866 men and 1249 women) were analyzed. IBM SPSS Statistical Software (version 19) was used for the statistical analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess independent influences for third-child refusal. Approximately 30% of these participants reported an intention for having a third child. In those expressing a refusal for a third child, women showed a higher prevalence rate (74.1 vs 63.2%, P < .001). Results from multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that age (P = .033), unemployment (P = .045), and currently raising 2 children (P = .017) were risk factors for third-child refusal among men, while age (P < .001), >15 years of education (P = .017), current smokers (P = .005) and residing in Northern China (P = .035) were risk factors for women. Overall, increased demands upon time and energy (41.5%), as well as economic burdens (41.4%), were the most prevalent reasons for the refusal of a third child, while achieving mutual care among siblings (52.5%) and reducing child educational costs (33.3%) were the most effective persuasions. In response to the 3-child policy, Chinese childbearing-aged adults showed low rates of intention for a third child, with women showing a higher prevalence of third-child refusal. The identification of risk factors and the reasons for third-child refusal as revealed from the results of this study provide a foundation for the development of programs needed to aid in the implementation of this 3-child policy.

Project description:BACKGROUND:China implemented a partial two-child policy (2013) followed by a universal two-child policy (2015), replacing the former one-child policy mandated by the government. The changes affect many aspects of China's population as well as maternal and infant health, but their potential impact on birth defects (BDs) remains unknown. In this study, we investigated the associations of these policy changes with BDs in Zhejiang Province, China. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We used data from the BD surveillance system in Zhejiang Province, China, which covers 90 hospitals in 30 urban districts and rural counties, capturing one-third of the total births in this province. To fully consider the time interval between conception and delivery, we defined the one-child policy period as data from 2013 (births from October 2012 to September 2013), the partial two-child policy period as data from 2015 (births from October 2014 to September 2015), and the universal two-child policy period as data from 2017 (births from October 2016 to September 2017). Data from 2009 and 2011 were also used to show the changes in the proportion of births to women with advanced maternal age (35 years and older) prior to the policy changes. Main outcome measures were changes in the proportion of mothers with advanced maternal age, prevalence of BDs, rankings of BD subtypes by prevalence, prenatal diagnosis rate, and live birth rate of BDs over time. A total of 1,260,684 births (including live births, early fetal losses, stillbirths, and early neonatal deaths) were included in the analyses. Of these, 644,973 (51.16%) births were to women from urban areas, and 615,711 (48.84%) births were to women from rural areas. In total, 135,543 (10.75%) births were to women with advanced maternal age. The proportion increased by 85.68%, from 8.52% in 2013 to 15.82% in 2017. However, it had remained stable prior to policy changes. Overall, 23,095 BDs were identified over the policy changes (2013-2017). The prevalence of BDs during 2013, 2015, and 2017 was 245.95, 264.86, and 304.36 per 10,000 births, respectively. Trisomy 21 and other chromosomal defects increased in both risk and ranking from 2013 to 2017 (crude odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 2.13 [1.75-2.60], from ranking 10th to 5th, and 3.63 [2.84-4.69], from ranking 16th to 6th, respectively). The prenatal diagnosis rate increased by 3.63 (2.2-5.1) percentage points (P < 0.001), from 31.10% to 34.72%, and identification of BDs occurred 1.88 (1.81-1.95) weeks earlier (P < 0.001). The live birth rate for infants with BDs born before 28 gestational weeks increased from 1.29% to 11.45%. The major limitations of this observational study include an inability to establish causality and the possible existence of unknown confounding factors, some of which could contribute to BDs. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we observed significant increases in maternal age and the prevalence of total and age-related anomalies following China's new two-child policy. Increases in live birth rate for infants with BDs born before 28 gestational weeks suggest that healthcare for very preterm births with BDs may be warranted in the future, as well as updating the definition of perinatal period.

Project description:BackgroundThe universal two-child policy in China which was announced in October 2015 might affect the caesarean birth rate. Few studies reported the caesarean birth rate affected by the policy especially after the universal two-child policy period. This study aimed to demonstrate the caesarean birth rate changes before and after the universal two-child policy and further elaborate the underlying influencing factors.MethodsThis nationwide, retrospective, population-based study was based on National Free Pre-Pregnancy Check-ups Project (NFPCP). Couples planning to conceive in next 6 months were encouraged to participate in NFPCP. Baseline information was collected using a standardized questionnaire with a face-to-face interview, and medical examinations were conducted. Two rounds of follow-up interviews were then conducted by trained nurses to update pregnancy status and outcomes. NFPCP participants who completed deliveries before December 31, 2018, were included in the current study. We used marginal effect of year to examine the trend of caesarean birth rate over time and interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to determine impacts of the universal two-child policy on the trend of caesarean birth rate.ResultsA total of 9,398,045 participants were included in the final analysis. High-risk factors to increase caesarean birth rate were identified. In the current study, the standardized caesarean birth rate declined from 34.1% in 2013 to 31.8% in 2015 and increased to 35.6% in 2018. ITS analysis showed the caesarean birth rate decreased by 0.1% (95% CI 0.1-0.1) per month before the release of universal two-child policy, 1.3% (95% CI 0.6-2.1%) absolute drop during the policy release month, and increased by 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.2%) per month after the policy implementation. For the period after the policy release, the increasing trends were observed in rural participants and urban primiparas. The prevalence of caesarean birth rates within China varied regionally.ConclusionsThe decreasing trend of caesarean birth rate was reported after immediate release of the universal two-child policy. An increasing trend of caesarean birth rate was observed 2-3 years after the policy. It reminds us that the caesarean birth rate control is a long-lasting process and all the strategies need to be continually reinforced.

Project description:ImportanceCauses of death in children with birth defects are poorly understood.ObjectiveTo determine mortality rates by cause of death in children with and without birth defects.Design, setting, and participantsThis longitudinal cohort study included a population-based sample of 1 037 688 children and was conducted in all hospitals in Quebec, Canada, with 7 700 596 person-years of follow-up between birth and age 14 years (April 1, 2006, to March 31, 2020).ExposuresPresence or absence of a birth defect.Main outcomes and measuresOutcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were computed for the association between birth defects and mortality with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for patient characteristics.ResultsAmong the 1 037 688 children in the cohort, 95 566 had birth defects (56.5% boys). There were 532 542 boys in the cohort (51.3%), and mean (SD) age at the end of follow-up was 7.42 (3.72) years. There were 918 deaths among children with defects, and the mean (SD) age was 0.93 (2.07) years at death; there were 1082 deaths among the 942 122 children without defects, and the mean (SD) age at death was 0.50 (1.51) years. Mortality rates were higher for children with birth defects compared with no defect (1.3 vs 0.2 deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively). Girls (HR, 5.66; 95% CI, 4.96-6.47) and boys (HR, 4.69; 95% CI, 4.15-5.29) with birth defects had an elevated risk of death before 14 years compared with unaffected children. Birth defects were associated with mortality from circulatory (HR, 26.59; 95% CI, 17.73-39.87), respiratory (HR, 23.03; 95% CI, 15.09-35.14), and digestive causes (HR, 31.77; 95% CI, 11.87-85.04), but anomalies were rarely listed as the cause of death. Compared with children with no defect, those with birth defects were at greatest risk of death between 28 and 364 days of life.Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study of 1 037 688 children suggests that birth defects were strongly associated with mortality owing to circulatory, respiratory, and digestive causes. This finding suggests that the contribution of birth defects may be underestimated in mortality statistics.

Project description:ObjectiveTo examine how the relaxation of the one child policy and policies to reduce caesarean section rates might have affected trends over time in caesarean section rates and perinatal and pregnancy related mortality in China.DesignObservational study.SettingChina's National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System (NMNMSS).Participants6 838 582 births at 28 completed weeks or more of gestation or birth weight ≥1000 g in 438 hospitals in the NMNMSS between 2012 and 2016.Main outcome measuresObstetric risk was defined using a modified Robson classification. The main outcome measures were changes in parity and age distributions and relative frequency of each Robson group, crude and adjusted trends over time in caesarean section rates within each risk category (using Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator), and trends in perinatal and pregnancy related mortality over time.ResultsCaesarean section rates declined steadily between 2012 and 2016 (crude relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93), reaching an overall hospital based rate of 41.1% in 2016. The relaxation of the one child policy was associated with an increase in the proportion of multiparous births (from 34.1% in 2012 to 46.7% in 2016), and births in women with a uterine scar nearly doubled (from 9.8% to 17.7% of all births). Taking account of these changes, the decline in caesarean sections was amplified over time (adjusted relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.84). Caesarean sections declined noticeably in nulliparous women (0.75, 0.73 to 0.77) but also declined in multiparous women without a uterine scar (0.65, 0.62 to 0.77). The decrease in caesarean section rates was most pronounced in hospitals with the highest rates in 2012, consistent with the government's policy of targeting hospitals with the highest rates. Perinatal mortality declined from 10.1 to 7.2 per 1000 births over the same period (0.87, 0.83 to 0.91), and there was no change in pregnancy related mortality over time.ConclusionsChina is the only country that has succeeded in reverting the rising trends in caesarean sections. China's success is remarkable given that the changes in obstetric risk associated with the relaxation of the one child policy would have led to an increase in the need for caesarean sections. China's experience suggests that change is possible when strategies are comprehensive and deal with the system level factors that underpin overuse as well as the various incentives at work during a clinical encounter.

Dataset Information

Association of China's two-child policy with changes in number of births and birth defects rate, 2008-2017.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Association of China's two-child policy with changes in number of births and birth defects rate, 2008-2017.

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