Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: Historic epidemic patterns suggest earlier mosquito control intervention in the transmission season could reduce the monthly growth factor and extent of epidemics.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is endemic in Bangladesh and is an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Suppressing the mosquito vector activity at the optimal time annually is a practical strategy to control dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study was to estimate the monthly growth factor (GF) of dengue cases over the past 12 years as a means to identify the optimal time for a vector-control programme in Bangladesh. We reviewed the monthly cases reported by the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research of Bangladesh during the period of January 2008-December 2019. We calculated the GF of dengue cases between successive months during this period and report means and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The median number of patients admitted to the hospital with dengue fever per year was 1554 (range: 375-101,354). The mean monthly GF of dengue cases was 1.2 (95% CI: 0.4-2.4). The monthly GF lower CI between April and July was > 1, whereas from September to November and January the upper CI was <1. The highest GF of dengue was recorded in June (mean: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7-3.5) and lowest in October (mean: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.24-0.73). More than 81% (39/48) months between April and July for the period 2008-2019 had monthly GF > 1 compared to 20% (19/96) months between August and March of the same period. The monthly GF was significantly correlated with monthly rainfall (r = 0.39) and monthly mean temperature (r = 0.30). The growth factor of the dengue cases over the last 12 years appeared to follow a marked periodicity linked to regional rainfall patterns. The increased transmission rate during the months of April-July, a seasonally determined peak suggests the need for strengthening a range of public health interventions, including targeted vector control efforts and community education campaigns.

SUBMITTER: Haider N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8906128 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature