Dataset Information

A switching dynamic model based on phased COVID-19 data in Chongqing and its evaluation.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Although COVID-19 has been controlled in China, the risk of invasion of imported cases remains. We aimed to characterize the impact of the number of imported cases and the implementation of first-level emergency response (FLER) policy.

Methods

A SCQIHR switching model was constructed and verified by the complete phased data of COVID-19 in Chongqing in 2020. Then it was used to investigate the impact of the number of imported cases and the timing of FLER. Lastly, it was evaluated by three actual scenarios in Chongqing in 2021.

Results

The proposed model can fit the multidimensional time series well. After the implementation of FLER, the mean effective reproduction number, contact rate and misdetection rate were decreased significantly, but the quarantine rate for close contacts and isolation rate for non-hospitalized infectious cases were increased significantly. The peaks of quarantined close contacts and hospitalized infectious cases increased linearly with the increase of the number of imported cases and the lag of FLER time, which was verified by three actual scenarios in Chongqing in 2021.

Conclusions

These findings can provide guidance for local public health policy-making and allocation of medical resources, reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the local population.

SUBMITTER: Long J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8920112 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A switching dynamic model based on phased COVID-19 data in Chongqing and its evaluation.

Long Jiang J Dai Chenxi C Kuang Shanshan S Zhao Han H Liu Dan D Luo Qing Q Wang Kaifa K

Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases 20220314

<h4>Objectives</h4>Although COVID-19 has been controlled in China, the risk of invasion of imported cases remains. We aimed to characterize the impact of the number of imported cases and the implementation of first-level emergency response (FLER) policy.<h4>Methods</h4>A SCQIHR switching model was constructed and verified by the complete phased data of COVID-19 in Chongqing in 2020. Then it was used to investigate the impact of the number of imported cases and the timing of FLER. Lastly, it was ...[more]

PMID: 35301168

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Project description:Objectives: To study in-depth the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of pneumonia resulting from COVID-19 and provide evidence for effective public health decisions.Methods: This was a retrospective, single-center research study. Participants were enrolled from patients presenting at the Chongqing Public Health Medical Treatment Center from Jan 24 to Feb 7, 2020, and were confirmed as having COVID-19.Results: A total of 114 COVID-19 patients (99 mild, 4 severe, 11 critical) of which 56 (56/114; 49.1%) were male, 58 (58/114; 50.9%) were female with a mean age of 46.05 years. Twenty nine (29/114; 25.44%) patients suffered from chronic diseases. Neutrophils counts in 23.68% (27/114) of patients were abnormally low and abnormally high in 21.05% (24/114). Erythrocyte sedimentation rate and the C-reactive protein levels were abnormally elevated in 76.5% (62/81) and 62.9% (66/105) of patients, respectively. Creatine kinase isoenzymes (CK-MB), pro-brain natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) and troponin levels were above the normal range in 7.10% (8/112), 66.7% (10/15), and 100% of patients, respectively. The percentage of patients in which the partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2)/fraction of inspired O2(FiO2) ratio exceeded 200 was 60%. A total of 91 (91/114; 79.82%) patients displayed severe bilateral pneumonia, 52 (52/114; 45.61%) exhibited ground-glass opacity, and pulmonary consolidation was observed in 4 (3.51%) patients. Differences in shortness of breath, insomnia, inappetence, the procalcitonin (PCT) levels, FiO2 and PaO2/FiO2 among the three groups were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Differences between the mild and severe groups was observed in neutrophil and lymphocyte counts, CD4 expression, and levels of C-reactive protein, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and albumin (P < 0.05). Between the mild and critical groups, differences were observed in neutrophils, platelets, and CD4 expression (P < 0.05). A difference in C-reactive protein levels between severe and critical groups was also found (P < 0.05).Conclusions: In the majority of cases no gender differences were observed and mostly the symptoms were mild. Evidence of efficient human-to-human virus transmission was found. The elderly with comorbidities were more prone to develop into severe or critical illness. Age and comorbidity may be risk factors for poor outcome.

Dataset Information

A switching dynamic model based on phased COVID-19 data in Chongqing and its evaluation.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A switching dynamic model based on phased COVID-19 data in Chongqing and its evaluation.

Similar Datasets

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