A switching dynamic model based on phased COVID-19 data in Chongqing and its evaluation.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Although COVID-19 has been controlled in China, the risk of invasion of imported cases remains. We aimed to characterize the impact of the number of imported cases and the implementation of first-level emergency response (FLER) policy.

Methods

A SCQIHR switching model was constructed and verified by the complete phased data of COVID-19 in Chongqing in 2020. Then it was used to investigate the impact of the number of imported cases and the timing of FLER. Lastly, it was evaluated by three actual scenarios in Chongqing in 2021.

Results

The proposed model can fit the multidimensional time series well. After the implementation of FLER, the mean effective reproduction number, contact rate and misdetection rate were decreased significantly, but the quarantine rat

SUBMITTER: Long J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8920112 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature