Dataset Information

The causal effect of education and cognitive performance on risk for suicide attempt: A combined instrumental variable and co-relative approach in a Swedish national cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The aim of this study was to clarify the possible causal associations between education phenotypes and non-fatal suicide attempts. In particular, we evaluated the roles of academic achievement (school grades), cognitive performance (IQ), and educational attainment (education level).

Methods

Based on longitudinal Swedish registry data, we included 2,335,763 individuals (48.7% female) with available school grades, 1,448,438 men with IQ measures, and 4,352,989 individuals (48.4% female) with available data on education level. We combined two different approaches to aid in causal inference: 1) instrumental variables analysis, using month of birth as an instrument related to education but not suicide attempt, to control for measured and unmeasured confounders, and 2) co-relative analysis, comparing pairs of different genetic relatedness (cousins, half, and full siblings) to control for genetic and environmental influences.

Results

High education was associated with reduced risk of suicide attempt. Instrumental variable analysis indicated evidence of a likely causal association between higher school grades and lower risk of suicide attempts (HR = 0.71). Co-relative analyses supported the causality between the three predictors and suicide attempt risk (school grades, HR = 0.80, IQ, HR = 0.83, education level, HR = 0.76). Finally, we examined the specificity of education phenotypes and found that both cognitive (IQ) and non-cognitive (school grades, education level) processes were involved in suicide attempt risk.

Limitations

IQ was only available in men, limiting the generalizability of this analysis in women.

Conclusions

Efforts to support causal associations in psychiatric research are needed to offer better intervention. Programs improving education during adolescence would decrease suicide attempt risk.

SUBMITTER: Lannoy S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8957535 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The causal effect of education and cognitive performance on risk for suicide attempt: A combined instrumental variable and co-relative approach in a Swedish national cohort.

Lannoy Séverine S Ohlsson Henrik H Kendler Kenneth S KS Sundquist Jan J Sundquist Kristina K Edwards Alexis C AC

Journal of affective disorders 20220307

<h4>Background</h4>The aim of this study was to clarify the possible causal associations between education phenotypes and non-fatal suicide attempts. In particular, we evaluated the roles of academic achievement (school grades), cognitive performance (IQ), and educational attainment (education level).<h4>Methods</h4>Based on longitudinal Swedish registry data, we included 2,335,763 individuals (48.7% female) with available school grades, 1,448,438 men with IQ measures, and 4,352,989 individuals ...[more]

PMID: 35271869

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Project description:Background and aimsAlcohol use disorder (AUD) is associated with increased risk of non-fatal suicide attempt. We aimed to measure the strength and mechanistic nature of the association between AUD and increased suicide attempt and determine any causal pathways and/or shared risk factors.DesignWe used Cox proportional hazards models in population-level and co-relative analyses to evaluate the risk of first non-fatal suicide attempt as a function of previous AUD.Setting and participantsWe used continuously updated longitudinal nationwide Swedish registry data on native Swedes born from 1950 to 1970 (n = 2 229 619) and followed from age 15 until 2012.MeasurementsAUD and suicide attempt were identified using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10 codes. AUD was also identified using pharmacy and criminal records. Genetic and family environmental risks were derived based on relatedness via the Multi-Generation Register and shared residency via the Population and Housing Census and the Total Population Register.FindingsAUD was robustly associated with suicide attempt in crude models (hazard ratio [HR] = 15.24 [95% CI: 14.92, 15.56]). In models adjusted for sociodemographic factors and psychiatric comorbidity, the association was attenuated: for women, HRs declined gradually across time, ranging from 5.55 (3.72, 8.29) during the observation period that ranged from age 15 to 19 years to 1.77 (1.65, 1.90) at age 40 or older. For men, the corresponding figures were 6.12 (4.07, 9.19) and 1.83 (1.72, 1.94); in contrast to women, risk of suicide attempt among men increased from age 15 to 29 before declining. In co-relative models, a residual association remained, consistent with a causal path from AUD to suicide attempt.ConclusionsIn Sweden, alcohol use disorder appears to be an important predictor of suicide attempt even in the context of other psychiatric disorders. The observed association is likely the result of features that jointly impact risk of alcohol use disorder and suicide attempts (genetic liability, psychiatric illness, and childhood stressors) and a potentially causal pathway, acting independently or in conjunction with one another.

Project description:ObjectiveThe authors aimed to clarify the sources of parent-child transmission for suicide attempt and death by suicide.MethodsThree sources of parent-child resemblance (genes plus rearing, genes only, and rearing only) were examined in parents and offspring from four family types from Swedish national samples: intact nuclear families, families with a not-lived-with biological father, families with a stepfather, and adoptees and their biological and adoptive parents. Parent-child resemblance was assessed primarily by tetrachoric correlation.ResultsFor suicide attempt to suicide attempt transmission, best-estimate tetrachoric correlations for genes plus rearing, genes only, and rearing only were 0.23 (95% CI=0.23, 0.24), 0.13 (95% CI=0.11, 0.15), and 0.14 (95% CI=0.11, 0.16), respectively. Suicide attempt was more strongly transmitted to male offspring compared with female offspring. Parental psychiatric disorders accounted for 40% of the genetic transmission but had no impact on rearing effects. For suicide death to suicide death transmission, best estimates of tetrachoric correlations for genes plus rearing, genes only, and rearing only were 0.16 (95% CI=0.15, 0.18), 0.07 (95% CI=0.02, 0.12), and -0.05 (95% CI=-0.17, 0.07), respectively. Although the suicide attempt-suicide death genetic correlation was high (0.84), the hypothesis that they reflect behaviors only differing in severity on the same continuum of genetic liability could be rejected.ConclusionsThe transmission of suicide attempt across generations is moderately strong and arises equally from genetic and rearing effects. Parental psychiatric illness explains almost half of the genetic transmission of suicide attempt but none of the rearing effect. Suicide death is modestly transmitted across generations, probably via genetic effects, although rearing may play a role. While suicide attempt and suicide death share a substantial proportion of their hereditary risk, they do not, from a genetic perspective, simply reflect milder and more severe forms of the same diathesis.

Project description:BackgroundSuicide is a major public health concern globally. Accurately predicting suicidal behavior remains challenging. This study aimed to use machine learning approaches to examine the potential of the Swedish national registry data for prediction of suicidal behavior.Methods and findingsThe study sample consisted of 541,300 inpatient and outpatient visits by 126,205 Sweden-born patients (54% female and 46% male) aged 18 to 39 (mean age at the visit: 27.3) years to psychiatric specialty care in Sweden between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2012. The most common psychiatric diagnoses at the visit were anxiety disorders (20.0%), major depressive disorder (16.9%), and substance use disorders (13.6%). A total of 425 candidate predictors covering demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status (SES), electronic medical records, criminality, as well as family history of disease and crime were extracted from the Swedish registry data. The sample was randomly split into an 80% training set containing 433,024 visits and a 20% test set containing 108,276 visits. Models were trained separately for suicide attempt/death within 90 and 30 days following a visit using multiple machine learning algorithms. Model discrimination and calibration were both evaluated. Among all eligible visits, 3.5% (18,682) were followed by a suicide attempt/death within 90 days and 1.7% (9,099) within 30 days. The final models were based on ensemble learning that combined predictions from elastic net penalized logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and a neural network. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) on the test set were 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87-0.89) and 0.89 (95% CI = 0.88-0.90) for the outcome within 90 days and 30 days, respectively, both being significantly better than chance (i.e., AUC = 0.50) (p < 0.01). Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were reported at different risk thresholds. A limitation of our study is that our models have not yet been externally validated, and thus, the generalizability of the models to other populations remains unknown.ConclusionsBy combining the ensemble method of multiple machine learning algorithms and high-quality data solely from the Swedish registers, we developed prognostic models to predict short-term suicide attempt/death with good discrimination and calibration. Whether novel predictors can improve predictive performance requires further investigation.

Dataset Information

The causal effect of education and cognitive performance on risk for suicide attempt: A combined instrumental variable and co-relative approach in a Swedish national cohort.

Background

Methods

Results

Limitations

Conclusions

Publications

The causal effect of education and cognitive performance on risk for suicide attempt: A combined instrumental variable and co-relative approach in a Swedish national cohort.

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