Dataset Information

Improved genetic risk scoring algorithm for type 1 diabetes prediction.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Precise risk prediction of type 1 diabetes (T1D) facilitates early intervention and identification of risk factors prior to irreversible beta-islet cell destruction, and can significantly improve T1D prevention and clinical care. Sharp et al. developed a genetic risk scoring (GRS) system for T1D (T1D-GRS2) capable of predicting T1D risk in children of European ancestry. The T1D-GRS2 was developed on the basis of causal genetic variants, thus may be applicable to minor populations, while a trans-ethnic GRS for T1D may avoid the exacerbation of health disparities due to the lack of genomic information in minorities.

Methods

Here, we describe a T1D-GRS2 calculator validated in two independent cohorts, including African American children and European American children. Participants were recruited by the Center for Applied Genomics at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

Results

It demonstrates that GRS2 is applicable to the T1D risk prediction in the AA cohort, while population-specific thresholds are needed for different populations.

Conclusions

The study highlights the potential to further improve T1D-GRS2 performance with the inclusion of additional genetic markers.

SUBMITTER: Qu HQ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8983464 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Improved genetic risk scoring algorithm for type 1 diabetes prediction.

Qu Hui-Qi HQ Qu Jingchun J Glessner Joseph J Liu Yichuan Y Mentch Frank F Chang Xiao X March Michael M Li Jin J Roizen Jeffrey D JD Connolly John J JJ Sleiman Patrick P Hakonarson Hakon H

Pediatric diabetes 20220119 3

<h4>Background</h4>Precise risk prediction of type 1 diabetes (T1D) facilitates early intervention and identification of risk factors prior to irreversible beta-islet cell destruction, and can significantly improve T1D prevention and clinical care. Sharp et al. developed a genetic risk scoring (GRS) system for T1D (T1D-GRS2) capable of predicting T1D risk in children of European ancestry. The T1D-GRS2 was developed on the basis of causal genetic variants, thus may be applicable to minor populati ...[more]

PMID: 34997821

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Project description:Objectives To derive and validate updated QDiabetes-2018 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of type 2 diabetes in men and women, taking account of potential new risk factors, and to compare their performance with current approaches.Design Prospective open cohort study.Setting Routinely collected data from 1457 general practices in England contributing to the QResearch database: 1094 were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 363 were used to validate the scores.Participants 11.5 million people aged 25-84 and free of diabetes at baseline: 8.87 million in the derivation cohort and 2.63 million in the validation cohort.Methods Cox proportional hazards models were used in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QDiabetes (age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, family history of diabetes in a first degree relative, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, and regular use of corticosteroids) and new risk factors: atypical antipsychotics, statins, schizophrenia or bipolar affective disorder, learning disability, gestational diabetes, and polycystic ovary syndrome. Additional models included fasting blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HBA1c). Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status.Main outcome measure Incident type 2 diabetes recorded on the general practice record.Results In the derivation cohort, 178 314 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified during follow-up arising from 42.72 million person years of observation. In the validation cohort, 62 326 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified from 14.32 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met our model inclusion criteria. Model A included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, family history of diabetes in a first degree relative, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, and regular use of corticosteroids, and new risk factors: atypical antipsychotics, statins, schizophrenia or bipolar affective disorder, learning disability, and gestational diabetes and polycystic ovary syndrome in women. Model B included the same variables as model A plus fasting blood glucose. Model C included HBA1c instead of fasting blood glucose. All three models had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination. In women, model B explained 63.3% of the variation in time to diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (R2), the D statistic was 2.69 and the Harrell's C statistic value was 0.89. The corresponding values for men were 58.4%, 2.42, and 0.87. Model B also had the highest sensitivity compared with current recommended practice in the National Health Service based on bands of either fasting blood glucose or HBA1c. However, only 16% of patients had complete data for blood glucose measurements, smoking, and body mass index.Conclusions Three updated QDiabetes risk models to quantify the absolute risk of type 2 diabetes were developed and validated: model A does not require a blood test and can be used to identify patients for fasting blood glucose (model B) or HBA1c (model C) testing. Model B had the best performance for predicting 10 year risk of type 2 diabetes to identify those who need interventions and more intensive follow-up, improving on current approaches. Additional external validation of models B and C in datasets with more completely collected data on blood glucose would be valuable before the models are used in clinical practice.

Dataset Information

Improved genetic risk scoring algorithm for type 1 diabetes prediction.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Improved genetic risk scoring algorithm for type 1 diabetes prediction.

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