Dataset Information

Google Trends as a Predictive Tool for COVID-19 Vaccinations in Italy: Retrospective Infodemiological Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Google Trends is an infoveillance tool widely used by the scientific community to investigate different user behaviors related to COVID-19. However, several limitations regarding its adoption are reported in the literature.

Objective

This paper aims to provide an effective and efficient approach to investigating vaccine adherence against COVID-19 via Google Trends.

Methods

Through the cross-correlational analysis of well-targeted hypotheses, we investigate the predictive capacity of web searches related to COVID-19 toward vaccinations in Italy from November 2020 to November 2021. The keyword "vaccine reservation" query (VRQ) was chosen as it reflects a real intention of being vaccinated (V). Furthermore, the impact of the second most read Italian newspaper (vaccine-related headlines [VRH]) on vaccine-related web searches was investigated to evaluate the role of the mass media as a confounding factor. Fisher r-to-z transformation (z) and percentage difference (δ) were used to compare Spearman coefficients. A regression model V=f(VRH, VRQ) was built to validate the results found. The Holm-Bonferroni correction was adopted (P*). SEs are reported.

Results

Simple and generic keywords are more likely to identify the actual web interest in COVID-19 vaccines than specific and elaborated keywords. Cross-correlations between VRQ and V were very strong and significant (min r²=0.460, P*<.001, lag 0 weeks; max r²=0.903, P*<.001, lag 6 weeks). The remaining cross-correlations have been markedly lower (δ>55.8%; z>5.8; P*<.001). The regression model confirmed the greater significance of VRQ versus VRH (P*<.001 vs P=.03, P*=.29).

Conclusions

This research provides preliminary evidence in favor of using Google Trends as a surveillance and prediction tool for vaccine adherence against COVID-19 in Italy. Further research is needed to establish the appropriate use and limits of Google Trends for vaccination tracking. However, these findings prove that the search for suitable keywords is a fundamental step to reduce confounding factors. Additionally, targeting hypotheses helps diminish the likelihood of spurious correlations. It is recommended that Google Trends be leveraged as a complementary infoveillance tool by government agencies to monitor and predict vaccine adherence in this and future crises by following the methods proposed in this paper.

SUBMITTER: Rovetta A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9031689 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr-Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Google Trends as a Predictive Tool for COVID-19 Vaccinations in Italy: Retrospective Infodemiological Analysis.

Rovetta Alessandro A

JMIRx med 20220419 2

<h4>Background</h4>Google Trends is an infoveillance tool widely used by the scientific community to investigate different user behaviors related to COVID-19. However, several limitations regarding its adoption are reported in the literature.<h4>Objective</h4>This paper aims to provide an effective and efficient approach to investigating vaccine adherence against COVID-19 via Google Trends.<h4>Methods</h4>Through the cross-correlational analysis of well-targeted hypotheses, we investigate the pr ...[more]

PMID: 35481982

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Project description:Infodemiologic methods could be used to enhance modeling infectious diseases. It is of interest to verify the utility of these methods using a Nigerian case study. We used Google Trends data to track COVID-19 incidences and assessed whether they could complement traditional data based solely on reported case numbers. Data on the Nigerian weekly COVID-19 cases spanning through March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021, were matched with internet search data from Google Trends. The reported weekly incidence numbers and the GT data were split into training and testing sets. ARIMA models were fitted to describe reported weekly COVID cases using the training set. Several COVID-related search terms were theoretically and empirically assessed for initial screening. The utilized Google Trends (GT) variable was added to the ARIMA model as a regressor. Model forecasts, both with and without GTD, were compared with weekly cases in the test set over 13 weeks. Forecast accuracies were compared visually and using RMSE (root mean square error) and MAE (mean average error). Statistical significance of the difference in predictions was determined with the two-sided Diebold-Mariano test. Preliminary results of contemporaneous correlations between COVID-related search terms and weekly COVID cases reveal "loss of smell," "loss of taste," "fever" (in order of magnitude) as significantly associated with the official cases. Predictions of the ARIMA model using solely reported case numbers resulted in an RMSE (root mean squared error) of 411.4 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 354.9. The GT expanded model achieved better forecasting accuracy (RMSE: 388.7 and MAE = 340.1). Corrected Akaike Information Criteria also favored the GT expanded model (869.4 vs. 872.2). The difference in predictive performances was significant when using a two-sided Diebold-Mariano test (DM = 6.75, p < 0.001) for the 13 weeks. Google trends data enhanced the predictive ability of a traditionally based model and should be considered a suitable method to enhance infectious disease modeling.

Project description:BackgroundWeb-based analysis of search queries has become a very useful method in various academic fields for understanding timely and regional differences in the public interest in certain terms and concepts. Particularly in health and medical research, Google Trends has been increasingly used over the last decade.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the search activity of pain-related parameters on Google Trends from among the most populated regions worldwide over a 3-year period from before the report of the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in these regions (January 2018) until December 2020.MethodsSearch terms from the following regions were used for the analysis: India, China, Europe, the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, and Indonesia. In total, 24 expressions of pain location were assessed. Search terms were extracted using the local language of the respective country. Python scripts were used for data mining. All statistical calculations were performed through exploratory data analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests.ResultsAlthough the overall search activity for pain-related terms increased, apart from pain entities such as headache, chest pain, and sore throat, we observed discordant search activity. Among the most populous regions, pain-related search parameters for shoulder, abdominal, and chest pain, headache, and toothache differed significantly before and after the first officially confirmed COVID-19 cases (for all, P<.001). In addition, we observed a heterogenous, marked increase or reduction in pain-related search parameters among the most populated regions.ConclusionsAs internet searches are a surrogate for public interest, we assume that our data are indicative of an increased incidence of pain after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as these increased incidences vary across geographical and anatomical locations, our findings could potentially facilitate the development of specific strategies to support the most affected groups.

Project description:BackgroundDespite the available evidence on its severity, COVID-19 has often been compared with seasonal flu by some conspirators and even scientists. Various public discussions arose about the noncausal correlation between COVID-19 and the observed deaths during the pandemic period in Italy.ObjectiveThis paper aimed to search for endogenous reasons for the mortality increase recorded in Italy during 2020 to test this controversial hypothesis. Furthermore, we provide a framework for epidemiological analyses of time series.MethodsWe analyzed deaths by age, sex, region, and cause of death in Italy from 2011 to 2019. Ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression analyses and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) were used to predict the best value for 2020. A Grubbs 1-sided test was used to assess the significance of the difference between predicted and observed 2020 deaths/mortality. Finally, a 1-sample t test was used to compare the population of regional excess deaths to a null mean. The relationship between mortality and predictive variables was assessed using OLS multiple regression models. Since there is no uniform opinion on multicomparison adjustment and false negatives imply great epidemiological risk, the less-conservative Siegel approach and more-conservative Holm-Bonferroni approach were employed. By doing so, we provided the reader with the means to carry out an independent analysis.ResultsBoth ARIMA and OLS linear regression models predicted the number of deaths in Italy during 2020 to be between 640,000 and 660,000 (range of 95% CIs: 620,000-695,000) against the observed value of above 750,000. We found strong evidence supporting that the death increase in all regions (average excess=12.2%) was not due to chance (t21=7.2; adjusted P<.001). Male and female national mortality excesses were 18.4% (P<.001; adjusted P=.006) and 14.1% (P=.005; adjusted P=.12), respectively. However, we found limited significance when comparing male and female mortality residuals' using the Mann-Whitney U test (P=.27; adjusted P=.99). Finally, mortality was strongly and positively correlated with latitude (R=0.82; adjusted P<.001). In this regard, the significance of the mortality increases during 2020 varied greatly from region to region. Lombardy recorded the highest mortality increase (38% for men, adjusted P<.001; 31% for women, P<.001; adjusted P=.006).ConclusionsOur findings support the absence of historical endogenous reasons capable of justifying the mortality increase observed in Italy during 2020. Together with the current knowledge on SARS-CoV-2, these results provide decisive evidence on the devastating impact of COVID-19. We suggest that this research be leveraged by government, health, and information authorities to furnish proof against conspiracy hypotheses that minimize COVID-19-related risks. Finally, given the marked concordance between ARIMA and OLS regression, we suggest that these models be exploited for public health surveillance. Specifically, meaningful information can be deduced by comparing predicted and observed epidemiological trends.

Dataset Information

Google Trends as a Predictive Tool for COVID-19 Vaccinations in Italy: Retrospective Infodemiological Analysis.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Google Trends as a Predictive Tool for COVID-19 Vaccinations in Italy: Retrospective Infodemiological Analysis.

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