Dataset Information

Vaccine-Preventable Disease Incidence Based on Clinically, Radiologically, and Etiologically Confirmed Outcomes: Systematic Literature Review and Re-analysis of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Efficacy Trials.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Vaccine regulatory decision making is based on vaccine efficacy against etiologically confirmed outcomes, which may underestimate the preventable disease burden. To quantify this underestimation, we compared vaccine-preventable disease incidence (VPDI) of clinically defined outcomes with radiologically/etiologically confirmed outcomes.

Methods

We performed a systematic review of efficacy trials for several vaccines (1997-2019) and report results for pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Data were extracted for outcomes within a clinical syndrome, organized from most sensitive to most specific. VPDI was determined for each outcome, and VPDI ratios were calculated, with a clinically defined outcome (numerator) and a radiologically/etiologically confirmed outcome (denominator).

Results

Among 9 studies, we calculated 27 VPDI ratios; 24 had a value >1. Among children, VPDI ratios for clinically defined versus vaccine serotype otitis media were 0.6 (95% CI not calculable), 2.1 (1.5-3.0), and 3.7 (1.0-10.2); the VPDI ratios comparing clinically defined with radiologically confirmed pneumonia ranged from not calculable to 2.7 (1.2-10.4); the VPDI ratio comparing clinically suspected invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) with laboratory-confirmed IPD was 3.8 (95% CI not calculable). Among adults, the ratio comparing clinically defined with radiologically confirmed pneumonia was 1.9 (-6.0 to 9.1) and with vaccine serotype-confirmed pneumonia was 2.9 (.5-7.8).

Conclusions

While there is substantial uncertainty around individual point estimates, there is a consistent trend in VPDI ratios, most commonly showing under-ascertainment of 1.5- to 4-fold, indicating that use of clinically defined outcomes is likely to provide a more accurate estimate of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine's public health value.

SUBMITTER: Bollaerts K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9049266 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Vaccine-Preventable Disease Incidence Based on Clinically, Radiologically, and Etiologically Confirmed Outcomes: Systematic Literature Review and Re-analysis of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Efficacy Trials.

Bollaerts Kaatje K Fletcher Mark A MA Suaya Jose A JA Hanquet Germaine G Baay Marc M Gessner Bradford D BD

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 20220401 8

<h4>Background</h4>Vaccine regulatory decision making is based on vaccine efficacy against etiologically confirmed outcomes, which may underestimate the preventable disease burden. To quantify this underestimation, we compared vaccine-preventable disease incidence (VPDI) of clinically defined outcomes with radiologically/etiologically confirmed outcomes.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a systematic review of efficacy trials for several vaccines (1997-2019) and report results for pneumococcal conjuga ...[more]

PMID: 34313721

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Project description:BackgroundPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) are highly protective against invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes, but the burden of pneumococcal disease in low-income and middle-income countries is dominated by pneumonia, most of which is non-bacteraemic. We examined the effect of 10-valent PCV on the incidence of pneumonia in Kenya.MethodsWe linked prospective hospital surveillance for clinically-defined WHO severe or very severe pneumonia at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, from 2002 to 2015, to population surveillance at Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, comprising 45 000 children younger than 5 years. Chest radiographs were read according to a WHO standard. A 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011. In Kilifi, there was a three-dose catch-up campaign for infants (aged <1 year) and a two-dose catch-up campaign for children aged 1-4 years, between January and March, 2011. We estimated the effect of PCV10 on the incidence of clinically-defined and radiologically-confirmed pneumonia through interrupted time-series analysis, accounting for seasonal and temporal trends.FindingsBetween May 1, 2002 and March 31, 2015, 44 771 children aged 2-143 months were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital. We excluded 810 admissions between January and March, 2011, and 182 admissions during nurses' strikes. In 2002-03, the incidence of admission with clinically-defined pneumonia was 2170 per 100 000 in children aged 2-59 months. By the end of the catch-up campaign in 2011, 4997 (61·1%) of 8181 children aged 2-11 months had received at least two doses of PCV10 and 23 298 (62·3%) of 37 416 children aged 12-59 months had received at least one dose. Across the 13 years of surveillance, the incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia declined by 0·5% per month, independent of vaccine introduction. There was no secular trend in the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia over 8 years of study. After adjustment for secular trend and season, incidence rate ratios for admission with radiologically-confirmed pneumonia, clinically-defined pneumonia, and diarrhoea (control condition), associated temporally with PCV10 introduction and the catch-up campaign, were 0·52 (95% CI 0·32-0·86), 0·73 (0·54-0·97), and 0·63 (0·31-1·26), respectively. Immediately before PCV10 was introduced, the annual incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia was 1220 per 100 000; this value was reduced by 329 per 100 000 at the point of PCV10 introduction.InterpretationOver 13 years, admissions to Kilifi County Hospital for clinically-defined pneumonia decreased sharply (by 27%) in association with the introduction of PCV10, as did the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia (by 48%). The burden of hospital admissions for childhood pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya, has been reduced substantially by the introduction of PCV10.FundingGavi, The Vaccine Alliance and Wellcome Trust.

Project description:BackgroundInvasive pneumococcal disease declined among children and adults after the introduction of the pediatric heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in 2000, but its effect on pneumococcal meningitis is unclear.MethodsWe examined trends in pneumococcal meningitis from 1998 through 2005 using active, population-based surveillance data from eight sites in the United States. Isolates were grouped into PCV7 serotypes (4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F), PCV7-related serotypes (6A, 9A, 9L, 9N, 18A, 18B, 18F, 19B, 19C, 23A, and 23B), and non-PCV7 serotypes (all others). Changes in the incidence of pneumococcal meningitis were assessed against baseline values from 1998-1999.ResultsWe identified 1379 cases of pneumococcal meningitis. The incidence declined from 1.13 cases to 0.79 case per 100,000 persons between 1998-1999 and 2004-2005 (a 30.1% decline, P<0.001). Among persons younger than 2 years of age and those 65 years of age or older, the incidence decreased during the study period by 64.0% and 54.0%, respectively (P<0.001 for both groups). Rates of PCV7-serotype meningitis declined from 0.66 case to 0.18 case (a 73.3% decline, P<0.001) among patients of all ages. Although rates of PCV7-related-serotype disease decreased by 32.1% (P=0.08), rates of non-PCV7-serotype disease increased from 0.32 to 0.51 (an increase of 60.5%, P<0.001). The percentages of cases from non-PCV7 serotypes 19A, 22F, and 35B each increased significantly during the study period. On average, 27.8% of isolates were nonsusceptible to penicillin, but fewer isolates were nonsusceptible to chloramphenicol (5.7%), meropenem (16.6%), and cefotaxime (11.8%). The proportion of penicillin-nonsusceptible isolates decreased between 1998 and 2003 (from 32.0% to 19.4%, P=0.01) but increased between 2003 and 2005 (from 19.4% to 30.1%, P=0.03).ConclusionsRates of pneumococcal meningitis have decreased among children and adults since PCV7 was introduced. Although the overall effect of the vaccine remains substantial, a recent increase in meningitis caused by non-PCV7 serotypes, including strains nonsusceptible to antibiotics, is a concern.

Project description:BackgroundThere is an ongoing need to assess the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to guide the use of these potentially valuable but under-utilized vaccines against pneumonia, which is one of the most common causes of post-neonatal mortality.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of the literature on PCV10 and PCV13 impact on all-cause, radiologically confirmed and severe pneumonia hospitalisation rates as well as all-cause and pneumonia-specific mortality rates. We included studies that were published from 2003 onwards, had a post-licensure observational study design, and reported on any of our defined outcomes in children aged between 0-9 years. We derived incidence rates (IRs), incidence rate ratios (IRRs) or percent differences (%). We assessed all studies for risk of bias using the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) quality assessment tool.ResultsWe identified a total of 1885 studies and included 43 comparing one or more of the following hospitalised outcomes of interest: all-cause pneumonia (n = 27), severe pneumonia (n = 6), all-cause empyema (n = 8), radiologically confirmed pneumonia (n = 8), pneumococcal pneumonia (n = 7), and pneumonia mortality (n = 10). No studies evaluated all-cause mortality. Studies were conducted in all WHO regions except South East Asia Region (SEAR) and low- or middle-income countries (LMICs) in the Western Pacific Region (WPR). Among children <5 years old, PCV impact ranged from 7% to 60% for all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation, 8% to 90% for severe pneumonia hospitalisation, 12% to 79% for radiologically confirmed pneumonia, and 45% to 85% for pneumococcal confirmed pneumonia. For pneumonia-related mortality, impact was found in three studies and ranged from 10% to 78%. No obvious differences were found in vaccine impact between PCV10 and PCV13. One study found a 17% reduction in all-cause pneumonia among children aged 5-9 years, while another found a reduction of 81% among those aged 5-17 years. A third study found a 57% reduction in all-cause empyema among children 5-14 years of age.ConclusionWe found clear evidence of declines in hospitalisation rates due to all-cause, severe, radiologically confirmed, and bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia in children aged <5 years, supporting ongoing use of PCV10 and PCV13. However, there were few studies from countries with the highest <5-year mortality and no studies from SEAR and LMICs in the WPR. Standardising methods of future PCV impact studies is recommended.

Project description:ObjectiveHigher valency pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are expected to improve protection against pneumococcal disease through coverage of additional serotypes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) compared to 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15) alone or followed by 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) for adults in Greece.MethodsA published Markov model was adapted to simulate lifetime risk of clinical and economic outcomes from the public payer's perspective. The model population was stratified based on age and risk profile (i.e., low, moderate, or high-risk of developing pneumococcal disease). Epidemiologic parameters, serotype coverage and vaccines' effectiveness were based on published literature, while direct medical costs (prices €, 2022) were obtained from official sources. Main model outcomes were projected number of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and all-cause non-bacteremic pneumonia (NBP) cases and attributable deaths, costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) for each vaccination strategy. Sensitivity analyses were performed to ascertain the robustness of model results.ResultsOver the modeled time horizon, vaccination with PCV20 compared to PCV15 alone or PCV15 followed by PPV23 prevents an additional 747 and 646 cases of IPD, 10,334 and 10,342 cases of NBP and 468 and 455 deaths respectively, resulting in incremental gain of 1,594 and 1,536 QALYs and cost savings of €11,183 and €48,858, respectively. PSA revealed that the probability of PCV20 being cost-effective at the predetermined threshold of €34,000 per QALY gained was 100% compared to either PCV15 alone or the combination of PCV15 followed by PPV23.ConclusionPCV20 is estimated to improve public health by averting additional pneumococcal disease cases and deaths relative to PCV15 alone or followed by PPV23, and therefore translates to cost-savings for the public payer. Overall results showed that vaccination with PCV20 was estimated to be a dominant vaccination strategy (improved health outcomes with reduced costs) over PCV15 alone or followed by PPV23 for prevention of pneumococcal disease in adults in Greece.

Dataset Information

Vaccine-Preventable Disease Incidence Based on Clinically, Radiologically, and Etiologically Confirmed Outcomes: Systematic Literature Review and Re-analysis of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Efficacy Trials.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Vaccine-Preventable Disease Incidence Based on Clinically, Radiologically, and Etiologically Confirmed Outcomes: Systematic Literature Review and Re-analysis of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Efficacy Trials.

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