Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning.

ABSTRACT: The Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM) is a mathematical model developed to analyse two pandemic influenza control measures available to public health: antiviral treatment and immunization. PRAM is parameterized using surveillance data from Alberta, Canada during pandemic H1N1. Age structure and risk level are incorporated in the compartmental, deterministic model through a contact matrix. The model characterizes pandemic influenza scenarios by transmissibility and severity properties. Simulating a worst-case scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic with immediate stockpile release, antiviral demand is 20·3% of the population. With concurrent, effective and timely immunization strategies, antiviral demand would be significantly less. PRAM will be useful in informing policy decisions such a

SUBMITTER: Dover DC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9150189 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature