Projected burden and duration of the 2022 Monkeypox outbreaks in non-endemic countries.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bisanzio D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9225111 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Projected burden and duration of the 2022 Monkeypox outbreaks in non-endemic countries.
Bisanzio Donal D Reithinger Richard R
The Lancet. Microbe 20220623 9
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Project description:In May 2022, the world witnessed the emergence of human monkeypox (MPOX), a new zoonotic viral disease in multiple non-endemic countries. This health threat has been associated with increased anxiety, especially after the COVID-19 catastrophe. In addition, people are exposed to an unprecedented amount of information, making them vulnerable to misinformation that may lead to embracing conspiracy theories. This literature review was conducted to evaluate the levels of MPOX-related knowledge and attitudes toward its vaccination by reviewing studies indexed in MEDLINE® until 15 November 2022. A total of 16 studies conducted in non-endemic countries were included in this review, predominantly in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Nine studies investigated exclusively MPOX-related knowledge and awareness, and two studies were exclusively related to MPOX vaccines, while five studies dealt with both topics. The target populations were mainly healthcare professionals and the general adult population. The results revealed an unsatisfactory level of knowledge and awareness among certain groups. Regarding vaccination, the results showed that vaccine hesitancy is still common for healthcare professionals except among Chinese healthcare professionals, where the rate of vaccine acceptance was estimated at 90.1%. This review could help understand the MPOX-related knowledge and awareness and vaccine hesitancy in the first months of the emergence of the MPOX by comparing their evolution in recent studies.
| S-EPMC9958664 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBetween May and November, 2022, global outbreaks of human monkeypox virus infection have been reported in more than 78 000 people worldwide, predominantly in men who have sex with men. We describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of monkeypox virus infection in cisgender (cis) and transgender (trans) women and non-binary individuals assigned female sex at birth to improve identification and understanding of risk factors.MethodsInternational collaborators in geographical locations with high numbers of diagnoses of monkeypox virus infection were approached and invited to contribute data on women and non-binary individuals with confirmed monkeypox virus infection. Contributing centres completed deidentified structured case-report spreadsheets, adapted and developed by participating clinicians, to include variables of interest relevant to women and non-binary individuals assigned female at birth. We describe the epidemiology and clinical course observed in the reported infections.FindingsCollaborators reported data for a total of 136 individuals with monkeypox virus infection who presented between May 11 and Oct 4, 2022, across 15 countries. Overall median age was 34 years (IQR 28-40; range 19-84). The cohort comprised 62 trans women, 69 cis women, and five non-binary individuals (who were, because of small numbers, grouped with cis women to form a category of people assigned female at birth for the purpose of comparison). 121 (89%) of 136 individuals reported sex with men. 37 (27%) of all individuals were living with HIV, with a higher proportion among trans women (31 [50%] of 62) than among cis women and non-binary individuals (six [8%] of 74). Sexual transmission was suspected in 55 (89%) trans women (with the remainder having an unknown route of transmission) and 45 (61%) cis women and non-binary individuals; non-sexual routes of transmission (including household and occupational exposures) were reported only in cis women and non-binary individuals. 25 (34%) of 74 cis women and non-binary individuals submitted to the case series were initially misdiagnosed. Overall, among individuals with available data, rash was described in 124 (93%) of 134 individuals and described as anogenital in 95 (74%) of 129 and as vesiculopustular in 105 (87%) of 121. Median number of lesions was ten (IQR 5-24; range 1-200). Mucosal lesions involving the vagina, anus, or oropharynx or eye occurred in 65 (55%) of 119 individuals with available data. Vaginal and anal sex were associated with lesions at those sites. Monkeypox virus DNA was detected by PCR from vaginal swab samples in all 14 samples tested. 17 (13%) individuals were hospitalised, predominantly for bacterial superinfection of lesions and pain management. 33 (24%) individuals were treated with tecovirimat and six (4%) received post-exposure vaccinations. No deaths were reported.InterpretationThe clinical features of monkeypox in women and non-binary individuals were similar to those described in men, including the presence of anal and genital lesions with prominent mucosal involvement. Anatomically, anogenital lesions were reflective of sexual practices: vulvovaginal lesions predominated in cis women and non-binary individuals and anorectal features predominated in trans women. The prevalence of HIV co-infection in the cohort was high.FundingNone.
| S-EPMC9671743 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9353591 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries' reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE:The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control.
| S-EPMC4455997 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBeginning May 7, 2022, multiple nations reported an unprecedented surge in monkeypox cases. Unlike past outbreaks, differences in affected populations, transmission mode, and clinical characteristics have been noted. With the existing uncertainties of the outbreak, real-time short-term forecasting can guide and evaluate the effectiveness of public health measures.MethodsWe obtained publicly available data on confirmed weekly cases of monkeypox at the global level and for seven countries (with the highest burden of disease at the time this study was initiated) from the Our World in Data (OWID) GitHub repository and CDC website. We generated short-term forecasts of new cases of monkeypox across the study areas using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework based on weekly cases using 10-week calibration periods. We report and assess the weekly forecasts with quantified uncertainty from the top-ranked, second-ranked, and ensemble sub-epidemic models. Overall, we conducted 324 weekly sequential 4-week ahead forecasts across the models from the week of July 28th, 2022, to the week of October 13th, 2022.ResultsThe last 10 of 12 forecasting periods (starting the week of August 11th, 2022) show either a plateauing or declining trend of monkeypox cases for all models and areas of study. According to our latest 4-week ahead forecast from the top-ranked model, a total of 6232 (95% PI 487.8, 12,468.0) cases could be added globally from the week of 10/20/2022 to the week of 11/10/2022. At the country level, the top-ranked model predicts that the USA will report the highest cumulative number of new cases for the 4-week forecasts (median based on OWID data: 1806 (95% PI 0.0, 5544.5)). The top-ranked and weighted ensemble models outperformed all other models in short-term forecasts.ConclusionsOur top-ranked model consistently predicted a decreasing trend in monkeypox cases on the global and country-specific scale during the last ten sequential forecasting periods. Our findings reflect the potential impact of increased immunity, and behavioral modification among high-risk populations.
| S-EPMC9841951 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In September 2022, an outbreak of Sudan virus (SUDV) was confirmed in Uganda. Following the first case report, we developed an individual based modelling platform (IBM-SUDV) to estimate the burden of cases and deaths, as well as the duration of the unfolding SUDV outbreak, using different scenarios. Modelled projections were within the range of cases and deaths ultimately observed.
| S-EPMC11483010 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Monkeypox is caused by an orthopoxvirus, which is a DNA virus. Monkeypox is a zoonotic viral infection that has been endemic in West Africa and Central Africa for over a decade. Between 1 January and 22 June 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 3,413 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox from 50 countries. Most cases (86%) were reported from Europe, with 2% from Africa and 11% from North and South America. In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identified an outbreak of monkeypox on May 17, 2022. In 99% of cases, the patients were men, 94% reported male-to-male sexual contact or intimate contact in the three weeks before they experienced symptoms of infection, 46% reported one or more genital lesions, and 41% had HIV infection. This initial data from the US showed widespread community transmission of monkeypox that mainly affected bisexual, gay, other men who had sex with men, and also ethnic and racial minority groups. Therefore, public health efforts in the US aim to prioritize these specific demographic groups for infection prevention and testing. By August 4, 2022, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency. This Editorial aims to present the current status of non-endemic global infections with the monkeypox virus, and current strategies for its prevention and management.
| S-EPMC9447348 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesDisruptive public health risks and events, including infectious disease outbreaks, are inevitable, but their effects can be mitigated by investing in prevention and preparedness. We assessed the epidemic preparedness and response capacities of health systems in 186 countries from 2018 to 2022.MethodsWe utilized data from the International Health Regulations (IHR) State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR) submissions to assess health systems' IHR capacities to (1) prevent, (2) detect, (3) respond, (4) enable resources and coordinate, and (5) ensure operational readiness from 2018 to 2022. We categorized the IHR capacities into five levels, with level 1 denoting the lowest level of national capacity and level 5 the highest. We calculated each index's capacity level as the arithmetic mean of its related indicators and analyzed changes over time using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test.ResultsSPAR reporting marginally improved from 92.9% (182 of 196 countries) in 2018 to 94.9% (186 of 196 countries) in 2022, with considerable improvement in all five capacity domains over this period: prevention (58.4 in 2018 to 66.5 in 2022), detection (74.7 to 78.3), response (56.5 to 67.8), enabling resources and coordination (63.0 to 68.3), and ensuring operational readiness (62.8 to 69.9). From the 2022 submissions, 116 (62%) countries reported functional (Level 4 or 5) prevention capacity, 162 (87%) had functional detection capacity, 118 (63%) had functional response capacity, 121 (65%) had functional enabling resources and coordination capacity, and 133 (72%) had functional operational readiness against public health events. Across all the indexes, the WHO African Region reported the fewest countries with functional capacity in these domains.ConclusionsThere was an overall increase in functional capacity across all five domains at both global and regional levels; and a high percentage of countries achieved functional capacity across all domains in 2022. However, a significant number of countries, particularly in the Global South, have yet to achieve functional competence in these capacities, leaving the world vulnerable to the persistent risk of epidemics and infectious biohazards. Strengthening IHR competencies through local, national, and global engagements must be urgently prioritized to achieve global health security against infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC11542336 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Phylogenetic analysis of monkeypox virus genomes showed statistically significant divergence and nascent subclades during the 2022 mpox outbreak. Frequency of G>A/C>T transitions has increased in recent years, probably resulting from apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme catalytic polypeptide 3G (APOBEC3) deaminase editing. This microevolutionary pattern most likely reflects community spread of the virus and adaptation to humans.
| S-EPMC9881786 | biostudies-literature
Project description:monkeypox viruses sequenced in Sweden 2022
| PRJEB53129 | ENA