Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia.

ABSTRACT: Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world's population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970-2014) and precipitation (2015-2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1-31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year^-1 (29.36 mm °C^-1, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year^-1 (20.03 mm °C^-1, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year^-1 (17.96 mm °C^-1, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year^-1 (17.28 mm °C^-1, SSP585), indicating overestimate

SUBMITTER: Chai Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9287300 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature