Dataset Information

A novel method to detect the early warning signal of COVID-19 transmission.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Infectious illness outbreaks, particularly the corona-virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics in recent years, have wreaked havoc on human society, and the growing number of infected patients has put a strain on medical facilities. It's necessary to forecast early warning signals of potential outbreaks of COVID-19, which would facilitate the health ministry to take some suitable control measures timely to prevent or slow the spread of COVID-19. However, since the intricacy of COVID-19 transmission, which connects biological and social systems, it is a difficult task to predict outbreaks of COVID-19 epidemics timely.

Results

In this work, we developed a new model-free approach, called, the landscape network entropy based on Auto-Reservoir Neural Network (ARNN-LNE), for quantitative analysis of COVID-19 propagation, by mining dynamic information from regional networks and short-term high-dimensional time-series data. Through this approach, we successfully identified the early warning signals in six nations or areas based on historical data of COVID-19 infections.

Conclusion

Based on the newly published data on new COVID-19 disease, the ARNN-LNE method can give early warning signals for the outbreak of COVID-19. It's worth noting that ARNN-LNE only relies on small samples data. Thus, it has great application potential for monitoring outbreaks of infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Li M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9289935 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A novel method to detect the early warning signal of COVID-19 transmission.

Li Mingzhang M Ma Shuo S Liu Zhengrong Z

BMC infectious diseases 20220718 1

<h4>Background</h4>Infectious illness outbreaks, particularly the corona-virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics in recent years, have wreaked havoc on human society, and the growing number of infected patients has put a strain on medical facilities. It's necessary to forecast early warning signals of potential outbreaks of COVID-19, which would facilitate the health ministry to take some suitable control measures timely to prevent or slow the spread of COVID-19. However, since the intricacy of ...[more]

PMID: 35850664

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Project description:We sought to validate prognostic scores in coronavirus disease 2019 including National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and age-based modifications, and define their performance characteristics.DesignWe analyzed prospectively collected data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. National Early Warning Score was collected daily during the trial, Modified Early Warning Score was calculated, and age applied to both scores. We assessed prognostic value for the end points of recovery, mechanical ventilation, and death for score at enrollment, average, and slope of score over the first 48 hours.SettingA multisite international inpatient trial.PatientsA total of 1,062 adult nonpregnant inpatients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia.InterventionsAdaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 randomized participants to receive remdesivir or placebo. The prognostic value of predictive scores was evaluated in both groups separately to assess for differential performance in the setting of remdesivir treatment.Measurements and main resultsFor mortality, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.60-0.68), and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.66-0.74). For recovery, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated somewhat better prognostic ability (c-index, 0.65-0.69); however, National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age further improved performance (c-index, 0.68-0.71). For deterioration, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.59-0.69) and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.63-0.70). All prognostic performance improvements due to addition of age were significant (p < 0.05).ConclusionsIn the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 cohort, National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated moderate prognostic performance in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019, with improvement in predictive ability for National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age. Area under receiver operating curve for National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score improved in patients receiving remdesivir versus placebo early in the pandemic for recovery and mortality. Although these scores are simple and readily obtainable in myriad settings, in our data set, they were insufficiently predictive to completely replace clinical judgment in coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve best as an adjunct to triage, disposition, and resourcing decisions.

Dataset Information

A novel method to detect the early warning signal of COVID-19 transmission.

Background

Results

Conclusion

Publications

A novel method to detect the early warning signal of COVID-19 transmission.

Similar Datasets

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